21 May 2001

1. "Turkey's real crisis", Turkey's accident-prone government has grudgingly pushed through enough economic reforms to secure a new loan from the IMF. But the roots of the country's problems remain political, not economic.

2. "Turkey, Nato and the EU", Ankara poses diplomats a new twist to an old song.

3. "Satellite images show Fertile Crescent devastation", intensive damming and drainage of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has transformed the southern Iraqi marshland known as the Fertile Crescent into a salt-encrusted wasteland, a U.N. study said on Friday based on newly released satellite images.

4. "'Law for Kurds, too'", PKK President Abdullah Ocalan stressed in a written statement released on Thursday that Kurds need to be included in law also and added: "A law platform is necessary for this. A symposium could be held on this subject."

5. "Council of Europe urges end to Turkish jail hunger strike", the Council of Europe appealed Friday to relatives of some 800 prisoners on hunger strike in Turkish jails to persuade them to abandon their deadly protest which has already claimed 22 lives.

6. "EU defense plans leave Turkey in tough dilemma", Turkey's objections to EU defense plans have left Ankara torn between national security concerns and its need as a candidate for membership to maintain good ties with Brussels - a dilemma with no easy solution in sight, analysts said Thursday.

1. - The Economist - "Turkey's real crisis":

Turkey's accident-prone government has grudgingly pushed through enough economic reforms to secure a new loan from the IMF. But the roots of the country's problems remain political, not economic

THE IMF gave the go-ahead for its third bail-out of Turkey in two years on May 15th. Indeed, by one reckoning (the difference between overhauling an economic programme and starting a new one is, after all, a fine one), it will be the eighteenth time the IMF has ridden to Turkey's rescue. To secure the latest $8 billion loan, Turkey's normally sluggish parliament passed no fewer than nine important new laws in less than a month. But all these reforms will do little to address the underlying cause of Turkey's endless crises: chronic political instability. Indeed, within the next few weeks, the Constitutional Court is due to rule on a prosecutor's request to close the Virtue party, the main Islamist opposition group and the third-largest party in parliament. If it does so, Turkey's markets might take fright once more, setting the stage for the nineteenth nervous breakdown.

For the moment, however, all eyes are on Kemal Dervis, Turkey's respected and popular economic tsar. The government recruited him from the World Bank in March, after Turkey's second big financial crisis in four months caused the IMF's previous stabilisation programme to collapse. For a time, that programme had gone well, as the government reined in its deficit, inflation and interest rates fell, and the economy boomed. But inflation, although falling, still exceeded the pre-ordained amounts by which the government devalued the Turkish lira each month (the so-called "crawling peg"), leading to a gradual overvaluation. That, coupled with worries about financing both the government deficit and a growing import bill, caused interest rates to start creeping up again. Several of Turkey's banks, unprepared for this reversal and addled by corruption, failed. A timely loan from the IMF and a government pledge to sort out the banking sector staved off a run on the lira for a time. Yet by February, further market ructions forced the government to abandon the crawling peg-and with it its chief mechanism for quashing inflation.

The latest package tries to pick up where the last one left off. But this time around, the IMF has insisted on more legislation being adopted up-front, including an all-important banking law passed on May 11th, which includes particularly stiff, retroactive measures against the crooks who did so much to bring on the previous crises. Critically, the Turkish lira now floats freely, leaving Mr Dervis a little bit more room for manoeuvre. But not much: should he fail to hold the government to its austerity targets and thus keep the budget deficit down, the markets will doubtless get jittery once again.

Economics v politics

But the government-a creaking coalition of left- and right-wing nationalists and economic liberals-may not stay in office, let alone stick to its spending targets. With each crisis, it pulls itself together long enough to stave off total catastrophe, before reverting to internal squabbling. Both the past two big financial crises were triggered by rows within the government over corruption investigations. Signs of renewed complacency are already cropping up: just last week, one of the three coalition partners held up a crucial privatisation law, citing fears of a fire-sale of strategic assets to foreign profiteers. Mr Dervis himself admits that the chief failing of all the past IMF programmes was the lack of politicians willing to identify themselves with them, push them through and, by extension, take responsibility for their failure. Not one government minister has resigned over the collapse of the latest programme, despite unprecedented public protests at the ensuing economic upheaval.

Indeed, Turkish politicians get away with behaviour that would be unthinkable elsewhere. One member of parliament died of a heart attack in January while being accosted by a group of his colleagues. Another, dubbed "the spinning top", has switched parties six times to stay on the gravy train. A different party has topped the vote at each of the past four elections, as voters desperately search for a better alternative. Both the military and the president (who is a former judge with no party affiliation) regularly best all politicians in opinion polls. Many Turks dismiss them all as hopeless rascals.

But the truth is a little more complicated. Turkey's politicians behave irresponsibly because the system encourages them to. The constitution, cooked up under military rule, forbids any attempt at "placing the government of state under the control of an individual or a group of people, or establishing the hegemony of one social class over others, or creating discrimination on the basis of language, race, religion or sect"-a fair definition of party politics. These restrictions are regularly invoked: the courts have banned some 35 parties over the past 40 years. Nor do the banned groups come from the extremist fringes of Turkish politics: Virtue, the party currently under threat of closure, won a fifth of the seats in parliament at the last election. Its precursor, Welfare, was the largest party in parliament when it was banned-just months after being harried out of government by Turkey's meddling generals.

Such constant upheaval has created a fractured and unrepresentative constellation of parties, and thus an unresponsive political system. Governments are always rickety coalitions, ever fearful of imminent elections and thus catering to the shortest of short-terms. Much of the business of governing is left to the bureaucracy, and much policymaking to the military. The present government had started making tentative steps to return power to the politicians, but the constant need to patch up the economy has distracted it. In the long run, however, the economy will not prosper without a more stable political system.

2. - Frankfurter Rundschau - "Turkey, Nato and the EU":

Ankara poses diplomats a new twist to an old song

BRUSSELS

The establishment of a European rapid-reaction force by 2003 will be in serious danger if the EU is not able to force a rethink in NATO partner Turkey in the dispute over the use of NATO facilities. Ankara has now been made offers through discreet diplomatic channels which include a guarantee to protect Turkey's security interests.

The European Union has been become bogged down in the matter. It has now run out of room for manoeuvre after it conceded extensive and wide-ranging, regular consultation mechanisms, including a right to co-decision in operational matters, to non-EU members Turkey, Norway, Iceland, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

But Turkey wants more. It wants an equal say at the table over when the EU decides to launch military actions. This is not acceptable to the Union, and there is little hope that NATO foreign ministers will come to an arrangement at their meeting in Budapest at the end of May.

German Defence Minister Rudolf Scharping contends that a resolution should be targeted "for the end of the year." But as all decisions within NATO must be taken unanimously, including those providing the EU with planning capacities as one example, Ankara holds a strong lever against the Union.

The explanation in Brussels for Ankara's rigid position - in contrast to Norway and Poland, say - is that Turkey seeks to get a toe in the door to the EU this way. Officially, Turkey has justified its demands with security interests, saying it fears the use of EU troops in Northern Cyprus, manoeuvres in the waters in the Aegean Sea it fights over perennially with Greece or EU sallies into regions which Turkey considers within its sphere of influence - for example, the Caspian Sea.

In an attempt to iron out the differences while leaving the EU's position unaltered, senior British diplomats - who currently have the best links to Ankara - have hammered out the following proposal. It suggests that at the same time as a treaty is signed between the EU and NATO on co-operation, Turkey could be offered guarantees of protection in bilateral "fringe consultations" with the EU's leading military lights - i.e., Britain, France, Italy and Germany.

A further advantage to this international process is that Greece would not be able to throw a spanner in the works. Whether Ankara agrees to take up the British model depends to a large degree on the current viewpoint in Washington.

Should the new man in the White House decide to back the EU rapid-reaction force, Ankara will doubtless agree to the compromise.

If, however, President George Bush sticks to his current, wait-and-see approach, Turkey may feel emboldened enough to continue blocking co-operation between the EU and NATO.

That could have nasty consequences for the North Atlantic alliance: the EU would be forced to establish its own planning capacities to allow it to operate independently from NATO, while NATO itself would continue to lose its medium-term significance.

For the EU that would be expensive primarily because deployment of the required strategic and operational planning capacities would create an extra burden on national defence budgets. If costs are to kept low, the EU will probably be forced to rely on French and British planning staffs.

3. - Reuters - "Satellite images show Fertile Crescent devastation":

UNITED NATIONS

Intensive damming and drainage of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has transformed the southern Iraqi marshland known as the Fertile Crescent into a salt-encrusted wasteland, a U.N. study said on Friday based on newly released satellite images.

The images show that some 90 percent of the vast wetlands region -- best known for its role as the Middle East's cradle of civilization some 10,000 years ago -- has disappeared due to the building of more than 30 large dams over the past 40 years and huge drainage projects carried out after the 1991 Gulf War, said the new study by the United Nations Environment Program.

Based on historical records and satellite photos taken by the U.S. space agency NASA, the study found the wetlands, which once covered 5,800 to 7,700 square miles (15,000 to 20,000 sq kms), have now shrunk to just 580 to 770 square miles (1,500 to 2,000 sq kms).

The satellite images were taken in 1992 and 2000, and were part of a gift of 16,000 images recently given to UNEP by NASA and valued at $20 million. More than half of them had never been seen or analyzed by the scientific community before the UNEP study.

The area has been difficult to monitor due to Iraq's isolation since the Gulf War, when a U.S.-led coalition drove it out of Kuwait after its 1990 invasion.

"The satellite images provide hard evidence that the once extensive marshlands have dried up and become desert, with vast stretches salt-encrusted," the UNEP study said.
"A small northern fringe of the Al-Hawizeh marsh, straddling the Iraq-Iran border and known as the Hawr Al-Azim in Iran, is all that remains," the study said. "Even this last vestige is rapidly disappearing as its water supply is impounded by new dams and diverted for irrigation."

Local wildlife has also been badly damaged and the loss of wetlands is threatening to stamp out the 5,000-year-old culture of Iraq's Marsh Arabs, about a fifth of whom now live in refugee camps in Iran while the remainder are scattered across the Iraqi countryside, UNEP said.

Due to the environmental damage, the smooth-coated otter is considered extinct, some 40 species of waterfowl and migratory birds from Siberia to South Africa are threatened and fish populations in the northern Gulf -- which depend on the marshlands for spawning grounds -- have experienced sharp declines, UNEP said.

"The collapse of Marsh Arab society, a distinct indigenous people that has inhabited the marshlands for millennia, adds a human dimension to this environmental disaster," it added.

Despite the extent of the damage, UNEP insisted it was still possible to save the threatened wetlands and called on Iran, Syria and Turkey as well as Iraq -- all nations dependent on the marshlands and the rivers that feed them -- to agree to a recovery plan.

Such a plan would have to re-evaluate the role of river damming and modify existing dams where necessary to reinstate managed flooding in the region over the long term, UNEP said.

The four countries must also do a better job of managing available water resources, UNEP said, urging them to adopt an international agreement on sharing the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates "for the benefit of people and nature and to ensure an adequate water supply to the marshes."

UNEP said it was carrying out a scientific assessment of the Tigris-Euphrates basin to help improve water management practices.

4. - Ozgur Politika - "'Law for Kurds, too'":

PKK President Abdullah Ocalan stressed in a written statement released on Thursday that Kurds need to be included in law also and added: "A law platform is necessary for this. A symposium could be held on this subject."

Century Law Firm Attorneys Mehmet Erbil, Irfan Dundar, and Filiz Kostak, along with brother Mehmet Ocalan, went to Imrali Island the other day to meet with PKK President Abdullah Ocalan. In a written statement released after their meeting, Ocalan said that he wanted to join legal principles with democratic unity and peace in the defense he was preparing for the European Court of Human Rights.

The PKK President had the following to say in his statement: "I am searching for solutions, from European law to Turkish law. There is a human rights dimension and a legal dimension. I want to unite legal principles with democratic unity and peace in my defense. We are presenting the theoretic perspectives of these. We are establishing the tie between the system of law and the Constitution. The President is writing legends of law. There is an understanding of a legal struggle being realized through Sezer. Prosecutor Salk also prepared my indictment. Am I right, or Salk? Or is Yilmaz [right] or Salk? Mr. Sezer is continuously defending the state of law. Everyone should take what he says as fundamental. The state of law must be brought into reality. People are still being taken from their homes and disappearing. The state of law is not functioning with us. Our people have not gotten acquainted with the law. It is necessary to bring the Kurdish people together with the law. It is necessary to do this in a scientific way; it won't be done with cliches. A law platform is necessary for this. A symposium could be held on this subject."

The problem is a legal question

The PKK President said that the Kurdish problem had become a constitutional question, a question of law, in both Turkey and Europe. Ocalan explained that this process had begun, both from an objective and subjective perspective, with him, and gave the following messages: "The source of the conspiracy against me is to a great extent in Europe. There is a two-hundred year foundation for this. England and France have been involved in this for 200 years. The breaches were opened with the forces in the south [Iraqi Kurdistan] after 1990. They threw us before the lions just like in a Roman arena. They are saying, 'Here, take your sacrifice and hang him' to Turkey. Greece's betrayal is the likes of which has never been seen in history. These must be correctly solved so that thousands won't die. Don't let there be a misunderstanding; I have no enmity towards the Greek people. Just as in the first days there were the Blue Market and similar incidents. I feared ten thousand unjust deaths there. Most see revolt as the only path. Most of those to die would have been Kurds. My political ethics cannot accept this."

Dervis's program

Ocalan stressed that the Turkish state was undertaking a a great change in program indexed to him and drew attention to the following: "The [German] Stern magazine is calling [State Minister responsible for the economy Kemal] Dervis's program the after-Apo program. It is connected to me. If Europe and the US are drawing up a program, there must also be a program for our people. We set out a path, I am trying to go down it. The basis of my defense is legitimate defense. It is the path of rightness, brotherhood. I believe that this will lead to freedom. My defense here is legal and political. I want to solve the problem of violence."

'I haven't abandoned the war for freedom'

Ocalan said that he was still carrying on the war for freedom, adding the following: "The war for freedom is carried out with reason, it is carried out with the law also.We were in favor of Turkey's independence and liberation. We will support this. This has no relation to surrender. Why is [DYP leader Tansu] Ciller so worried, why is she shouting? Because the doors to easy profits are closing. Fazilet and DYP want me to be hung, because it is in their interests. For that reason, I took on a calm attitude. My attitude is a good one. The conspiracy was set up not only against me but against Turkey also. I lived for our people and the interests of our country, even though I didn't want to live at all."

'A 200-year problem'

Ocalan stressed that the historic basis to the Kurdish problem went back 200 years, saying the following: "There is a damnable history, collaboration, games of English and European imperialism. There was a good alliance in Anatolia in the 1920s. The Kurds were lacking, they didn't put forward their demands in a democratic way. The rebellious culture of the dominant Kurdish class - I am not saying this to belittle - did not develop the republic. The English made one rebel, and told the other to hang."

Ocalan stressed that they wanted to play this game in the '90s as well, and stressed the following: "I didn't want to allow this to happen. I said, 'Let's solve the problem with democracy and brotherhood.' Turkey must understand this correctly, or the Kurds must explain this well. This is the essence of my defense. My defense is taking a lesson from history. Justice must be given to he in the right. Did our people participate in the War of Liberation? Yes! Were their rights given? No! Seeking the rights of the people is not dividing, it is the democratic, secular republic itself.

"If these games had not been played, the republic would have surpassed even Japan. Now, we can overcome this by making a synthesis of Anatolian and Mesopotamian cultures. Primitive nationalism is a spider's web that will close off the future of the Kurds and Turks. Making the democratic republic live is a merit. We cannot have the small state understanding of the socialists. We would like a great union that would include the Turkic republics, the Balkans, and the Middle East. This is richness. But it must include the lofty values of the people."

Europe imposed the conspiracy

PKK President Abdullah Ocalan criticized European countries sharply, and continued his statement as follows: "Europe didn't impose the law on me, but a conspiracy. I am not now sentenced by Turkey, but by the conspiracy. We are going to call those who came up with this conspiracy to testify in the court. Then the case must be dropped. We will say to Europe, 'You didn't impose the law, but a conspiracy of 200 years of massacre.' Is Apo a terrorist or not? You cannot debate this, because you developed the conspiracy. I am preparing my written defense. I wrote a 300-page defense on slavery. I am removing the mask from 75 percent of the lies of Europe's practices related to law and politics. I called this conspiracy theater. Others wrote the scenario, it was played out at Imrali. The game must be spoiled. If Turkey gets out from the influence of the conspiracy, if it truly opposes Sevres [Treaty], we can solve our problems with friendship."

Democratic mobilization

The PKK President said that the conspiracy had an inside and an outside aspect and said that "it is necessary for everyone to stand up for the democratic legal process" so that tens of thousands of people would not die. Ocalan called for a "democratic mobilization" for this purpose, adding, "No one should even get a nosebleed because of me. It is necessary to use the legal democratic process to the very end."

Ocalan also had the following to say: "Accepting democratic rights will bring brotherhood. The opposite of this will bring war back. The struggle for democratic rights should not be for me, but for the people, for democracy, for human rights. The state is a vehicle. If it knows it would not harm its unity and territorial integrity, the state would also take initiative. We must explain to each other, convince each other. This won't happen with just words. Everyone must carry out his historical responsibilities. I didn't struggle for separation but for democratic union, not for violence, but on the basis of the line of an honorable peace. Mobilization is needed for democratic unity. It is necessary to bring the path of dialogue to life in order to completely end violence."

5. - AFP - "Council of Europe urges end to Turkish jail hunger strike":

ANKARA

The Council of Europe appealed Friday to relatives of some 800 prisoners on hunger strike in Turkish jails to persuade them to abandon their deadly protest which has already claimed 22 lives.

"These young people are sacrificing their lives," said Lord Russell-Johnston, President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. "Please try to persuade these young people to give up their strike," he urged, following talks with Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. The Strasbourg-based 43-member Council of Europe serves primarily as the continent's human rights watchdog. Hundreds of mainly left-wing inmates of Turkey's unruly prisons launched their protest last October in protest at the introduction of new jails with cells for a maximum of three people instead of large dormitories holding up to 60. The protestors argue that the new "F-type" prisons will leave them socially isolated and more vulnerable to ill-treatment by guards. The government rules out a return to the dormitory system, which it sees as responsible for frequent riots and hostage-taking incidents in jails. In a bid to reform the much-criticized prison system, the parliament has adopted two bills, one lifting a ban on the association in recreational areas of prisoners convicted of terrorism, the other introducing special judges to deal with prisoners' complaints.

Lawmakers are expected next week to resume debate on a third bill to set up five-member "prison and detention centre control committees" responsible for inspecting jail conditions. "I hope all these legal changes will be play a role in ending the hunger strike," Russell-Johnston said. However, the newly-adopted legislation has been blasted by human rights organizations as insufficient and has failed to satisfy the hunger strikers. "Despite the newly-passed legislation, isolation conditions in prisons are still in place," said Husnu Ondul, chairman of the Turkish Human Rights (IHD): "There has been no change in the position of the hunger strikers." Of those who died on hunger strike since March 21, 18 are prisoners and four are relatives of inmates who joined the strike in solidarity.

There have been no deaths in the past two weeks as the strike ran into its seventh month. "Doctors say the inmates have been able to hold on for so long because of the vitamin supplements that they have been taking since the start," Ondul said. "But there are several people who have lost consciousness and are in critical condition despite medical treatment," he added.

6. - Middle East Times - "EU defense plans leave Turkey in tough dilemma":

ANKARA

Turkey's objections to EU defense plans have left Ankara torn between national security concerns and its need as a candidate for membership to maintain good ties with Brussels - a dilemma with no easy solution in sight, analysts said Thursday.

Turkey, a NATO member and an EU hopeful, is blocking an agreement between the two bodies that would allow the EU to use NATO assets without including NATO members who are not also in the EU in the decision-making process.

The issue flared again on Tuesday during a meeting of foreign and defense ministers from EU and NATO countries in Brussels.

Access to NATO strategic planning is considered vital to the creation of an EU rapid reaction force, due to be in place by 2003 for intervention in troublespots like Kosovo.

Turkey, which has the largest NATO army after the United States and hosts strategic military bases, says that such access should be decided on a case-by-case basis and not "guaranteed and permanent" as the EU wants.

Defenders of Ankara's position say the rough security environment in which Turkey is situated justifies its demands for an equal say in the decision-making of future operations, most of them likely to be in the country's proximity.

"Turkey is in the middle of all risky regions. It is absurd to expect Turkey to accept the EU's conditions, which amount to saying, 'You do what I say'," Hasan Unal, professor of international relations at Ankara's Bilkent University, told AFP.

Turkey borders the volatile Balkans and Caucasus, with which it has close ethnic bonds, as well as Iraq.

Ankara's objections also reflect fears that the EU might intervene in conflicts to which Turkey is a direct party - such as the divided island of Cyprus and its territorial disputes in the Aegean with EU member Greece, a European diplomat said.

"Under these circumstances, Turkey cannot be compared to other non-EU NATO members such as Norway or Iceland. What the EU asks for is beyond any sense of logic," said Huseyin Bagci from the Middle East Technical University.

"The EU should put Turkey in a category of its own and should design a special arrangement for it. I do not see any mid-way at present," he said.

Ankara will continue to veto an EU-NATO deal if the Union does not change its stance, the experts agreed.

"I do not think the current government or any future government will take such a heavy political responsibility to agree to the EU's plans, which will affect Turkey's security in the future," Bagci said.

Unal added that Turkey's continued veto was likely to lead to a deadlock in EU's defense plans and a serious row between Ankara and Brussels.

A former foreign minister, Ilter Turkmen, warned that such an escalation was likely to damage Turkey's hopes to join the EU.

"Turkey's accession process could be negatively affected if we create the impression that we are a constant troublemaker," he said in a recent article on the Foreign Policy Institute's website.

Turkmen downplayed "doomsday" scenarios such as an EU intervention in Cyprus, stressing that the Union was not a coalition against Turkey and its members were already NATO allies.

French Defense Minister Alain Richard warned Tuesday in Brussels that Turkey's attitude was "not consistent with its interests in a rapprochement with Europe."

But Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem said that "it won't be the end of the world" if an accord on planning and NATO assets is not hammered out soon.

Turkey and the EU have had a love-and-hate relationship over the years, with a particularly stormy period after the Union rejected Turkey's candidacy in 1997.

Turkey was finally declared a candidate in December 1999, but it lags behind the 12 other aspirants with the EU demanding far-reaching democratic reforms before accession talks could open.