14
April 2004
2. "Iraqi Kurds May Want to Go Their Own Way", Risking independence would be less perilous than the mayhem of civil war.
3. "Turkish army warns of 'serious problems' in possible Cyprus deal", The Turkish army on Tuesday refused to take sides on a UN peace plan to reunify Cyprus, but warned there might be "serious problems" in implementing such a peace deal.
4. "Turkey: EU entry appears as far away as ever", Senior European and Turkish analysts say that in the EU, supporters of Turkish membership are becoming more cautious. They fear, among other things, that admitting Turkey could potentially open the door to more Islamic extremism in Europe.
5. "Turkey fumes at Greek Cypriot proposal to postpone peace referendum", Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul Tuesday slammed Greek Cypriot proposals to postpone a referendum on the reunification of Cyprus, saying it was a ploy aimed at hampering Turkey's EU membership bid.
6. "Chirac's support for Turkey in EU in doubt", Doubts over French President Jacques Chirac's commitment to Turkish membership of the European Union have surged following the abrupt decision by the UMP ruling political party to oppose the opening of negotiations this autumn.
1. - Reuters - "Turkish military vows to defend secularism":
ANKARA / 13 April 2004
Turkey's powerful military served notice on the government and media
critics on Tuesday that it would not tolerate any weakening of the
country's secular political system.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has introduced a flurry
of liberal reforms to prepare Turkey for European Union membership
talks, but the secular military establishment distrusts the motives
of a government which has its roots in political Islam.
"Nobody should expect the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) to be impartial
on the issues of secularism and modernity," General Hilmi Ozkok,
head of the military General Staff, told a news conference.
"The subject on which the TSK has always been partial and will
remain partial is the eternal protection and preservation of the Turkish
Republic's unity as a nation and territory, a republic which is democratic,
secular and social."
Speaking in the coded language favoured by the military, he criticised
"certain circles" who he said tried to depict the TSK as
the main obstacle to reform in Turkey.
But he did not identify these circles, nor did he mention by name
either the AKP government or the EU, which is due to decide in December
whether to open entry talks with Ankara.
Citing EU standards on religious freedom, the AKP favours easing restrictions
on women wearing of Islamic headscarves in public places -- a stance
fiercely opposed by the General Staff.
The TSK is Turkey's most respected institution and is widely viewed
as the ultimate guarantor of secular democracy and shield against
radical Islam.
In its drive to open up Turkish society and bring it closer to European
norms, the government is having to pare back the TSK's power and influence.
It is expected to announce plans next week to remove army representatives
from boards which supervise higher education and the electronic media,
in line with EU requirements.
It has already downgraded the once-mighty National Security Council,
which groups generals and top politicians, to a purely advisory body,
though some Western diplomats say the government disregards the council's
will at its peril.
And the EU insists that Turkey's hefty defence budget must be brought
under full parliamentary control for the first time.
The army ousted several governments in recent decades which it viewed
as dangerous to the national interest, most recently in 1997 when
it edged out Islamist-minded prime minister Necmettin Erbakan.
But striking an unusually modest note, Ozkok, a moderate, also said
the TSK welcomed constructive criticism which was based on "correct"
information. 
2. - Los Angeles Times - "Iraqi Kurds May Want to Go Their Own Way":
Risking independence would be less perilous than the mayhem of civil war.
April 12, 2004 / By Rajan Menon
The key to Iraq's future is not its rebellious Sunni center or its increasingly turbulent Shiite south; it's the relatively stable Kurdish north, the area where American policy has been most successful. If you're a Kurdish leader in northern Iraq watching the mess unfolding in the rest of the country, these are the questions increasingly running through your mind: How long before we Kurds give up on a united Iraq and choose independence? Why stay part of Iraq and risk being drawn into the out-of-control maelstrom overtaking the rest of the country?
Iraqi Kurdistan is stable and democratic. It has a vibrant civil society, independent newspapers and citizens groups, and greater opportunities for women in public life than in other parts of Iraq. Economic reconstruction is progressing at a faster clip; markets are bustling; basic goods and services are available.
True, Kurdistan has not been free from violence — it experienced several terrorist attacks this year — but compared with the rest of Iraq it is a zone of peace with good governance and a reliable, experienced local security force, the peshmerga.
What's worrisome for the Kurds is that Iraq's mayhem is no longer confined to the famed Sunni Triangle and its wild towns — Fallouja, Ramadi and Tikrit — but is taking root in the Shiite regions as well. The axiom has been that the U.S. can keep Iraq whole so long as the Shiite majority is cooperative. But the honeymoon is ending.
With the November presidential election looming, George W. Bush, who ignored the United Nations and went to war, now desperately wants the U.N. to help keep the peace. And he is eager to turn over the house keys to an Iraqi government on June 30 to show American voters that progress is being made. But what Kurd would believe that an Iraqi authority can keep order when the United States could not? And can Kurds be confident that U.S. troops would stay on in force if the current violence escalates?
Kurdish leaders hoped a pact with the Shiites might make it possible for Kurds to remain within Iraq on acceptable terms. The Kurds had dreamed about their own state but settled on autonomy because it was practical. Not even the Kurds' biggest champions, the Americans, would deliver on the dream — and for obvious reasons.
Iraq's breakup would enrage Turkey, which fears that an independent Iraqi Kurdish state would attract its own 12 million to 14 million Kurds. Iraq's fragmentation also would prove that Washington's vision of a united and democratic Iraq was a pipe dream. It would make the war an even bigger political problem for Bush by destroying the argument his administration has now fallen back on — that even if no weapons of mass destruction are found, a united, free Iraq justifies the war. It would set off a free-for-all among Iraq's neighbors to pick off parts of its carcass.
Kurdish leaders understand all this and know that choosing independence remains a risky gambit. But if Iraq continues its downward spiral, they will find the downsides less daunting.
For one thing, a deal with the Shiites seems increasingly problematic. The young firebrand cleric Muqtada Sadr demands an Islamic state, lambastes the occupation and mobilizes his Al Mahdi army against it. He lacks the stature and popularity enjoyed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, but he has forced Sistani to take a tough line on Iraq's proposed constitution, specifically the provisions aimed at giving minorities a say. Because Sistani has to prevent his parvenu rival from outflanking him, Kurds will find it harder to reach an accommodation with the Shiites.
Moreover, if the Kurds opt to stay within an Iraq that descends into chaos, they cannot impose strict border controls, and Kirkuk and other Kurdish cities will suffer violence on the same scale as the rest of Iraq.
After decades of torture, mass executions, forced relocation and chemical attacks by Saddam Hussein's monstrous regime, the Kurds have a chance to chart their destiny. So far, they have followed the American script. But now there are three possibilities: an Iraq convulsed by violence for years to come; a Shiite-dominated Iraq; or an Iraq that fragments. The first two variants will make the Kurds' lives worse. The path to the third is perilous, but the increasing upheaval makes it increasingly necessary to contemplate.
No Kurdish leader will say so publicly, but if Iraq's turmoil worsens and the U.S. loses control, separatist thoughts in Kurdistan will produce separatist deeds. Iraq will then end up in pieces: a Kurdish north, a Sunni center and a Shiite south. And the Bush administration's blueprint for a democratic Iraq that transforms the Middle East's landscape will be buried in the rubble.
Rajan Menon is a professor of international relations at Lehigh
University.
3.
- AFP - "Turkish army warns of 'serious problems' in possible
Cyprus deal":
ANKARA / 13 April 2004
The Turkish army on Tuesday refused to take sides on a UN peace plan
to reunify Cyprus, but warned there might be "serious problems"
in implementing such a peace deal.
"If we look at whole plan, we can say that beside positive aspects,
it does not meet some of our demands and there is the possibility
of serious problems emerging during its implementation," chief
of staff, General Hilmi Ozkok, told a rare press conference.
But he refused to take a stand on the UN blueprint, which aims to
end the island's 30-year division before it joins the European Union
on May 1.
Turkish and Greek Cypriots are set to vote on the plan in separate
but simultaneous referanda on April 24.
"We cannot say yes or no to the plan. It would not be an appropriate
answer," Ozkok said.
The general underlined it was of great importance for the European
Union to permanently guarantee the provisions of the UN peace plan,
warning that a
failure to do so would lead to security problems.
Nonetheless, he noted the final decision on the plan lay with the
Turkish Cypriots and the Turkish parliament, which will approve the
result of the
referendum.
4. - Eurasianet - "TURKEY: EU ENTRY APPEARS AS FAR AWAY AS EVER":
Turkey’s long-running bid to join the European Union may be under threat.
by Breffni O'Rourke / 13 April 2004
Senior European and Turkish analysts say that in the EU, supporters of Turkish membership are becoming more cautious. They fear, among other things, that admitting Turkey could potentially open the door to more Islamic extremism in Europe.
France, for one, recently signaled its position may be shifting away from Turkish entry. The ruling conservative party of President Jacques Chirac said it would oppose Turkish membership in the bloc in the campaign for June elections to the European Parliament.
Polish analyst Aleksander Smolar, head of the Stefan Batory Foundation in Warsaw, sees the issue this way.
"There is a fear and a quite clear manifestation of negative attitudes to such a perspective [as Turkish EU membership]; the situation in the Middle East and also the problems with Muslim minorities in Western Europe contributes to rising fear of having such a big Muslim country [as Turkey] in the European Union," Smolar said.
Smolar predicts that the question of whether to grant Turkey membership will be the next profoundly divisive issue facing the EU. Last year, the union suffered one of its deepest fissures in the last half century when members could not agree on what position to take on the U.S.-led Iraq war.
In Ankara, the director of the Foreign Policy Institute of Bilkent University, Seyfi Tashan, also says the fear factor must be taken into account as a possible hindrance to Turkish EU membership.
"It’s difficult to assess whether [Turkish membership] can help or can scare people -- both scenarios are possible," Tashan said.
Smolar also sees the positive side of the question, namely that the turbulence in the Muslim world could actually help instead of hinder Turkey’s EU aspirations.
"Accepting Turkey in [the union] would be the best manifestation to the Muslim world that Europe is not about the clash of civilizations, that Europe is not looking for confrontation with the Muslim world, and also, a factor which is very important is that giving this prize [of membership] to Turkey would be an award for democratic transformation and modernization on the largely Western pattern," Smolar said.
Smolar notes that, in any case, membership was promised to Turkey many years ago.
The European Commission has said it will issue a recommendation before the end of the year on whether to open formal negotiations on Turkish membership.
It appears that recommendation could go either way. Certainly Ankara’s case was not helped by a European Parliament report last week that criticized Turkish shortcomings sharply.
The report said Turkey does not yet meet the "Copenhagen" political criteria -- the EU standards on democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
The report said the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made courageous steps in the face of strong resistance toward political and economic reform. But it said more progress is needed, noting that "torture practices and mistreatment" still continue and that little progress has been made in bringing torturers to justice.
The parliament’s report was also critical of repression of political parties and intimidation of human rights campaigners, as well as of restrictions on freedom of expression and poor treatment of religious, ethnic, and linguistic minorities, including Kurds.
The European Parliament’s report is not binding on the European Commission.
In contrast, there has been praise for Turkey’s role in trying to bring about a settlement of the division of Cyprus. EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen went out of his way last week to say that Turkey had played a "very constructive and cooperative role in the negotiations."
The Cyprus issue however remains fraught with diplomatic booby traps for Turkey. A solution for Cyprus could be at hand when Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots vote in separate referendums on 24 April on whether to accept a reunification plan backed by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. But analyst Gabriel von Toggenburg of the European Academy in Bolzano explains there are complications.
"There are many people who argue that the Greek Cypriot side wants to oppose the Annan plan because they think that once the [EU membership] negotiations with Turkey begin, they could succeed in having a more favorable settlement than the Annan plan, because they could exert even more pressure on the Turkish side," von Toggenburg said.
Under this scenario, the Greek Cypriots would vote "no"
at the 24 April referendum. This would mean that Cyprus would remain
divided, and that the Turkish Cypriot north of the island would stay
outside the EU when the Greek Cypriot part of the island goes into
the EU on 1 May. The Greek Cypriots could then use their veto to block
membership negotiations with Turkey.
5. - AFP - "Turkey fumes at Greek Cypriot proposal to postpone peace referendum":
13 April 2004
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul Tuesday slammed Greek Cypriot proposals to postpone a referendum on the reunification of Cyprus, saying it was a ploy aimed at hampering Turkey's EU membership bid, Anatolia news agency said.
The Turkish and Greek communities of Cyprus will vote in simultaneous referendums on April 24 on a UN settlement plan aimed at ending the island's three-decade division before it joins the European Union on May 1.
"The Greek Cypriots' bid to delay the referendum is far from a sincere move," Gul told parliament: "Turkey will remain committed to the agreement (on holding the referendum).
"We call also on the United Nations Secretary-General and the European Union to act accordingly."
In a major blow to hopes of peace, the largest Greek Cypriot party called last week for postponement of the vote, hot on the heels of a strong appeal by Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos for rejection of the UN plan.
The Greek Cypriot south, which enjoys international recognition, has been promised EU membership regardless of whether a reunification deal is reached with the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north.
Gul charged that Greek Cypriots were seeking to delay the referendum until after May 1 in order to join the EU as the sole legitimate representative of the whole island.
"Such a prospect will strengthen Greek Cypriots, and will also mortgage Turkey's EU membership bid," he said.
Ankara, which maintains some 30,000 troops in northern Cyprus, has thrown its support behind the UN plan in the hope of boosting its own chances of joining the EU.
It fears that if Greek Cypriots join the EU unilaterally, they will be able to hamper Turkey's own accession efforts and bargain for more concessions in any future peace deal with the Turkish Cypriots.
Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey invaded its northern
third in response to a Greek Cypriot coup aimed at uniting the island
with Greece.
6. - The Financial Times - "Chirac's support for Turkey in EU in doubt":
By Jo Johnson in Paris and Judy Dempsey in Brussels
14 April 2004
Doubts over French President Jacques Chirac's commitment to Turkish membership of the European Union have surged following the abrupt decision by the UMP ruling political party to oppose the opening of negotiations this autumn.
The European Commission is expected to recommend opening accession negotiations with Turkey when it delivers its "progress report" on the country's economic, political and social reforms in October.
However, the UMP, which is chaired by Alain Jupp?, one of Mr Chirac's closest advisers, stunned diplomats by announcing before Easter that it would campaign against the opening of negotiations with Turkey during European elections in June.
"The UMP does not want to see negotiations start for Turkish membership of the EU," Mr Jupp? said. "We are favourable towards a sort of privileged partnership and the constitution project opens this possibility."
Some observers have interpreted the UMP's shift in policy as a precursor to Mr Chirac abandoning an official "wait-and-see" position on whether Turkey has made sufficient progress on issues such as human rights.
Others say Mr Chirac, a longstanding supporter of the principle of Turkish membership, may be tempted to cultivate ambiguity for short-term electoral purposes following the UMP's heavy defeat in last month's regional elections.
"We are astonished because President Chirac is a longstanding supporter of Turkish membership, but for the moment the UMP's position is not that of the government," says Doroth?e Schmid of the French Institute for International Relations.
As EU enlargement and specifically Turkish membership are unpopular in France, analysts see a risk that the UMP's new stance, if successful with voters, could become policy. However, both the Elys?e Palace and the foreign office said the government's position was unchanged.
Assuming the Commission gives Turkey a favourable report in October, there is a chance that the EU's "Big Three" will be divided at the summit in December when a final decision is to be taken.
Berlin, backed by London, has taken the lead in insisting the EU starts negotiations. "In terms of foreign policy issues, Paris has not yet fully lined up with Berlin," said an EU diplomat.
"This is not the moment to be discouraged, as the decision will be taken on the basis of the Commission's report in October," said Nilgum Pirlot, a spokeswoman at the Turkish embassy in Paris. "We are working to make the report as positive as possible."
Hayrettin Aydin, of the Centre of Studies on Turkey at Essen university in Germany, said: "France would find itself isolated and would come under great pressure from Germany if it opposed entering negotiations."
Although some commissioners will say Turkey does not belong to Europe when the report is presented in the autumn, diplomats said on Tuesday it was unlikely the Commission would prevent the start of negotiations.
Frits Bolkestein, internal market commissioner, has stated publicly
that Turkey does not belong inside Europe. Jack Straw and Joschka
Fischer, UK and German foreign ministers respectively, see Turkey
as crucial to Europe's strategic interests in dealing with its own
Muslim communities and in developing relations with North Africa and
the Middle East.