29 April 2003

1. "Turkey ponders over its new role after Iraq crisis", for decades, Turkey has touted itself as a reliable Muslim ally of the West - a secular, democratic buffer between Europe and the Middle East. But as two recent landmark events heralded a reshaping of both regions, the Turks found themselves in the painful role of distant spectators.

2. "Power play in northern Iraq", as the international community is focused on the rapid unfolding of events in southern Iraq, a potentially dangerous ethnic conflict is taking shape in the northern part of the country. In particular, Kirkuk has become the scene of ethnic rivalry between the Turkmens and the Kurds who have claims to the city and its adjacent oil-rich region. If the current trend continues, armed and bloody ethnic war will likely engulf Iraq's northern part with a potential for regional expansion arising from Iran's and Turkey's sensitivity to instability in their neighboring country.

3. "Turkey's Kurds not related to developments in northern Iraq", the probability of the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq has raised alarms in Turkey after the Saddam regime fell. However, politicians and businessmen in the southeastern region where most Kurds live stress that any Kurdish formation in northern Iraq will benefit Turkey, rather than emboldening Turkey's Kurds for further rights.

4. "European committee set to take up Oostlander report", the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee is set to discuss and give final shape to a controversial report that has drawn anger from Turkey because of its argument that Turkey's Kemalist ideology is an obstacle for the country's bid to become a member of the European Union.

5. "Verheugen: Chance for EU-Turkey negotiation in 2005", the EU Commissioner called for a reappraisal of the role of the Armed Forces in Turkish life.

6. "Turkish prosecutor charges Kurdish party with links to armed rebels", Turkey's chief prosecutor Tuesday accused the country's main pro-Kurdish party of links to separatist Kurdish rebels and demanded it be banned, Anatolia news agency reported.

1. - The Los Angels Times - "Turkey ponders over its new role after Iraq crisis":

ANKARA / 29 April 2003 / by Richard Boudreaux

For decades, Turkey has touted itself as a reliable Muslim ally of the West - a secular, democratic buffer between Europe and the Middle East. But as two recent landmark events heralded a reshaping of both regions, the Turks found themselves in the painful role of distant spectators.

In the Iraqi city of Ur, American, British and Polish diplomats gathered under a tent with Iraqi notables on April 15 to begin the task of forming a government to replace Saddam Hussein's ousted regime. The following day, Europe's leaders met in Athens, Greece, to sign treaties that will enlarge the European Union next year from 15 members to 25.

Without a voice under the Iraqi tent or a place in Europe's expanding club, Turkey has emerged from the war next door feeling rejected and powerless, divided and uncertain about its place in the world.

In a matter of weeks, Turkey has lost a special bond with the United States by denying the Pentagon a base from which to attack Iraq; refrained, under strong US pressure, from sending troops to defend its own interests in Iraq; and missed a United Nations deadline to end the ethnic partition of Cyprus, raising a new obstacle to Turkey's bid to join the European Union.

The setbacks have shaken the nation's pro-Western government and bolstered nationalist forces. While trying to mend fences with the West, Turkey also has made overtures to Syria and Iran, seeking common ground to limit the autonomy of ethnic Kurds in northern Iraq.

"The danger is real that Turkey will eventually alienate itself from Europe and the United States and blame both for forcing it into isolation," a European diplomat said.

The risks for the Bush administration are high. Until now, Turkey had supported nearly every US military venture since the Korean War. The only Muslim member of NATO, Turkey has peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and Afghanistan and a military alliance with Israel. As the United States faces new levels of resentment in the Muslim world, including inside Iraq, Turkey is still a valued ally.

"There is a deep American interest in a stable, secular democracy in the Muslim world, so the United States will make every effort to maintain a responsive relationship with Turkey," said Morton I. Abramowitz, a former US ambassador to Turkey. "But until the future of Iraq is established in a way the Turks are relaxed about, there's going to be major tension here."

Just four months ago, President Bush and European leaders were applauding Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he jetted among their capitals with reassurances of his country's westward course. Erdogan, whose Justice and Development Party had swept to power in the November elections, needed the display of Western support to allay doubts in the Turkish military about his religious roots.

But the prime minister and his government have been weakened by their initial backing for a deployment of US troops in Turkey to attack Iraq. With more than 90 per cent of Turks against a war, the proposal died in Parliament last month, defeated by pacifist, religious and secular nationalist politicians distrustful of Western designs.

Suspicion that the West wants to weaken Turkey weighs heavily in debates over Iraq and Cyprus. It is shared by military officers, President Ahmet Sezer, both minority parties in Parliament and nearly -one-third of the ruling party's legislators, including the speaker.

They contend that the United States will allow Iraq to fragment, producing a breakaway Kurdish state supportive of the Turkish Kurd guerrillas who fought and lost a separatist war in the 1980s and 1990s. Ethnic Kurds represent about 20 per cent of Turkey's population.

In the debate over Cyprus, Erdogan failed to persuade the Turkish military and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf R. Denktash to accept a settlement offered by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan before this month's step toward EU expansion.

Turkish commentators fumed as the EU welcomed the Greek Cypriot government, excluding the island's Turkish Cypriot sector. European leaders warned that Turkey could not join the union until the island is reunited.

Erdogan has reacted to these setbacks with mixed messages, reaffirming Turkey's alliance with the United States and ambition to join the EU but also asserting the country's independence.

Ignoring the fact that he lobbied for a US troop deployment, Erdogan now sounds pleased that Parliament voted no. Turkey endured the war "without compromising itself," he said recently, and chose to "stand on its own feet" rather than accept $6 billion in conditional US aid.

Tensions with the United States have eased since an April 2 visit here by US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell. The Bush administration's disappointment with Turkey "is real, but it now is also history," Powell said last week, "and we're moving forward."

But Powell, Turks noticed, did not mention the term "strategic partner" that President Clinton first used in 1999 to describe Turkey, and they worry that the Pentagon has demoted its longtime ally.

Romania and Bulgaria, which opened bases to American warplanes striking Iraq, are likely to rival Turkey in importance to the United States, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, Turkey's armed forces chief of staff, told a recent parliamentary hearing. Already, the United States has withdrawn nearly all of its 50 attack and support aircraft from Turkey's Incirlik air base, from which they flew patrols over northern Iraq for 12 years.

A Turkey with less strategic value might have a harder time winning congressional approval for US arms sales and administration backing for further IMF bailouts, legislative officials in both countries say.

Western diplomats, Turkish analysts and other specialists say Turkey is at a crossroads.

If it feels threatened by the Iraqi Kurds, some believe, the Turkish government could align with neighbours Syria and Iran, which also have restive Kurdish minorities and would welcome an ally against America. But many analysts say this would provoke unbearable opposition from the US and Turkey's military.

Others say Turkey should go all-out for EU membership and downgrade its US ties. The EU is a club of equals, based on common humanitarian values, they argue, while doing a superpower's bidding makes Turkey feel inferior.

2. - The Asian Times - "Power play in northern Iraq":

29 April 2003 / by Hooman Peimani*

As the international community is focused on the rapid unfolding of events in southern Iraq, a potentially dangerous ethnic conflict is taking shape in the northern part of the country. In particular, Kirkuk has become the scene of ethnic rivalry between the Turkmens and the Kurds who have claims to the city and its adjacent oil-rich region. If the current trend continues, armed and bloody ethnic war will likely engulf Iraq's northern part with a potential for regional expansion arising from Iran's and Turkey's sensitivity to instability in their neighboring country.

The Turkmens minority of Iraq residing in the greater Kirkuk area composing of Kirkuk and its large oilfields is claiming that the Iraqi Kurds have resorted to a violent campaign of intimidation against the Turkmens. It also accuses the American troops stationed in their region of turning a blind eye to killings and "ethnic cleansing" of Turkmens by Kurdish armed groups.

The Iraqi Kurds have a territorial claim to Kirkuk and its surrounding area, which, along with another nearby city, Mosul, have been a target of Arabization by the Iraqi central government over the past few decades. As a result, many intimidated Iraqi Kurds have had to leave their homes for safety in mainly the nearby Kurdish region. Controlling Kirkuk will enable the Kurds to address their financial problems through exporting oil and to increase their international significance as an oil exporter. By creating a substantial amount of annual revenue and by creating stakes for the oil importing nations in the security of the Iraqi Kurdish region, Kirkuk could also help them survive as an independent state should they opt for that plan. While they deny having such motivation, the Turks and the Turkmens suggest otherwise.

The Turkmens view Kirkuk as their homeland, which the Kurds seek to take from them by force. They claim to constitute 65 percent of the population of greater Kirkuk, estimated at 600,000, of which the Arabs account for 25 percent and the Kurds and Assyrians account for only 10 percent, an assertion contested by the Kurds, who claim to be in majority.

According to a Turkmens group, the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) have launched a campaign since the fall of the Iraqi regime to make the Turkmen and Arabs leave Kirkuk. Allegedly, this is part of their bid to incorporate that city and its nearby oilfields in their self-ruled territory.

Despite promises to the Americans and the Turks, PUK and KDP forces entered Kirkuk in early April when the Iraqi forces left the city then under heavy American attack. Concerned about the encouraging impact of an independent Iraqi Kurdistan on its own rebellious Kurdish minority, Turkey interpreted the development as a step towards an independent Iraqi Kurdish state. Ankara's warning of taking military action against those forces made the Americans ask the Kurds to leave the city. The American troops have since controlled both Kirkuk and Mosul.

However, the ITF claims that the PUK and the KDP forces have returned to those cities under the pretext of "helping the Americans with security" as part of a plan to incorporate them in their future independent state. To that end, the ITF suggests, they harass and intimidate the Turkmens and Arabs to force them to leave Kirkuk and Mosul.

Last week, Ahmet Muratli, the ITF representative in Turkey, accused the Kurdish forces of "attacking" and "plundering" Kirkuk's Turkmens and of their arrest of 11 Turkmens who fought against them. As claimed also last week by another ITF representative, Mohammed Kemal Yaycili, the Americans simply ignore the return of the Kurdish forces and tolerate their attacks on the Turkmens. According to him, the Turkmens have experienced "a series of attacks as soon as the [American] war [against Iraq] ended and the Kurds moved in. The Americans [claimed that] they had asked the Kurds to leave, but nothing happened. When we complained to [the Americans] about the attack, nothing happened either. The Americans favor the Kurds. They are working hand in hand."

Along the same line, concerned about a possible American-Kurdish design on Kirkuk, the Turkish government has expressed anger at a statement attributed to Jay Garner, the retired American general charged with restoring basic services to Iraq, allegedly described Kirkuk as a Kurdish city in his last week's visit of the northern part of Iraq.

In addition to attacks on individuals and looting properties, Kirkuk's Arabs and Turkmens claim that Kurdish forces have forced dozens of families, mainly Turkmen, to leave their homes. A KDP representative, Mohammed Kamal Salah, has reportedly confirmed the killings of an unspecified number of Turkmens, which he attributed to the rival PUK.

Moreover, Muratli has expressed concern about the Kurdish control of Kirkuk and a Kurdish effort to reclaim the city and also Mosul by sending back there 300,000 to 400,000 Kurds who were forced out of their homes during the Saddam era. "We do not like this," said Muratli. "I call on the world not to let the demographic structure of the cities be disrupted," he added.

While the Turkmens accuse the Kurds of atrocities and separatism, the Kurds also level charges against the Turkmens. Accordingly, the Iraqi Turkmens pursue their own pan-Turkist agenda backed by Ankara. Allegedly, they follow a policy of unification with neighboring Turkey, for which they have resorted to terrorizing Kurds. There are claims of murders of Kurds by Turkmens, including the killing of 15 Kurds celebrating the "liberation" of Kirkuk. Also, the Turkmens have been accused of looting Kurdish houses and properties after the Kurdish forces left Kirkuk on American demand.

Furthermore, Kurdish sources claim that Turkey provides military assistance to the Turkmens. Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul denied such accusations, including a reported arrest in northern Iraq by the American military of an unspecified number of Turkish officers in civilian clothes tasked with arming the Turkmens.

While the full extent of anti-Turkmens activities is not known, there is no question that Kirkuk's "liberation" brought extensive looting and lawlessness to the city affecting all the ethnic groups to a varying extent. Like elsewhere in Iraq, these phenomena have since continued in one form or another. As well, it is also certain that fighting between armed rival ethnic forces has resulted in the killing and wounding of Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens. Reportedly, at least 11 people have been killed and more than 50 have been injured since mid-April.

The emergence of ethnic and territorial disputes has created a suitable ground for instability in the northern part of Iraq. In particular, fighting between armed Kurdish and Turkmens groups with the aim of defending their rights, settling scores or seeking strategic objectives will likely push the oil-rich region into bloody conflict, if the current trend continues.

Should the Iraqi Kurds incorporate Kirkuk and/or Mosul into their self-ruled region, fear of the feasibility of creating an independent Iraqi Kurdish state will likely push Iran and Turkey into the conflict. Concern about the impact of such scenario on their Kurdish minorities could push Ankara and Tehran to follow the lead of Washington in preemption, with a much stronger case to justify their action.

* Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations.

3. - The Turkish Daily News - "Turkey's Kurds not related to developments in northern Iraq":

IZMIR / 29 April 2003 / by Serdar Alyamac

The probability of the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq has raised alarms in Turkey after the Saddam regime fell. However, politicians and businessmen in the southeastern region where most Kurds live stress that any Kurdish formation in northern Iraq will benefit Turkey, rather than emboldening Turkey's Kurds for further rights.

Since the first Gulf War in 1991, due to Operation Northern Watch protecting northern Iraq, there was a de facto Kurdish state. After the Saddam regime was overthrown, Kurdish formations like PUK and KDP have found grounding to lead their de facto formation through a legal base with a federative system to be established by the United States in Iraq.

Turkey fears that greater freedom and economic clout in northern Iraq could embolden its own Kurdish minority to demand more rights. A Kurdish state or federation controlling oil-rich cities Kirkuk and Mosul of Iraq may cause unrest in Turkey inciting Turkey's Kurds to ask for more rights.

Contrary to Turkey's fears on northern Iraq, Kurdish-origin Turkish citizens mostly living in the southeastern region of Turkey bordering northern Iraq, despite their economic plights and pressure in struggling with outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that caused over 30,000 deaths, are happy being Turkish.

The former chairman of closed pro-Kurdish party Peoples' Democracy Party (HADEP) Murat Bozlak, who was barred from politics, told Turkish Daily News that people in Turkey look at the Kurdish issue as fortune tellers. "There is no Kurdish state in northern Iraq. The United States of America, after overthrowing Saddam Hussein, want to form a new ruling system in Iraq. This system is a federative system. And a federation to be formed in Iraq and a Kurdish state are completely different."

Pointing out that a democratic Iraq would benefit Turkey, Bozlak said, "The economic richness of northern Iraq will not create any problem for Turkey. Turkey can develop its relations with a democratic Iraq. It will be more positive for us (Turkey). It will not cause problems in Turkey."

Stressing that Kurds in Turkey are not strictly in line with developments in Iraq, Bozlak said, "Turkey's Kurds are not related to developments in Iraq. The general demand in Turkey is legislation of democratic rights. This is also not a problem that cannot be solved. If we can do these, there would not be any problem related or unrelated to northern Iraq." He added that the European Union (EU) asked Turkey to make progress in human rights due to Turkey's aspiration to be full member of the EU. "If these demands of the EU were realized, there will not be any problem. Plus, the region is economically aggravated. Investments should be made in southeastern Turkey and the rife unemployment should be overcome in the region."

Sema Kucuksoz, an investor focused in the southeastern region to develop the regional economy, said that if northern Iraq becomes an economically attractive place it would be normal for people to go to northern Iraq. "Our economy should be good. We have to make the southeastern region an attractive place to break the attractiveness of northern Iraq. If we cannot ensure a strong economic structure in the southeast region, it would be normal that northern Iraq would be an attractive place for Turkey's Kurds. There is a blood tie between our Kurds and Iraqi Kurds," said Kucuksoz, who was a 'human shield' in Baghdad.

Stressing that the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq was too difficult, Kucuksoz said, "There is border trade between Turkey's Kurds and Iraqi Kurds. Sirnak and Silopi were completely involved in the border trade. If there was no border trade, these places were completely crippled. The state should coordinate the economic structure in the southeastern region and make it an attractive place. I have invested a lot of money there, but this is not something to be overcome with a few people. Problems in this region are huge."

The chairman of the Southeast Region Industrialists and Businessmen Association (GUSIAD), Bedrettin Karaboga, stressed that Kurds in Turkey had compromised with Turkish democracy. "Turkey's Kurds are not like Kurds in northern Iraq in terms of social life. However, in Turkey, the economic instability in the southeastern region has turned to political instability."

"There has been a serious formation in 13 years in northern Iraq. Furthermore, there is an important market there. Turkey should improve her relations with northern Iraq. However, we cannot benefit from this market because of embargoes implemented to the Habur border gate, closed because of war in Iraq. According to our information, Syria has entered into close commercial relations with Kurdish formations. And according to me, we should not fear of these formations," said Karaboga.

Karaboga continued, "Because of economic crisis, many Kurds migrated to Western cities and European countries to work. This is normal, people who were economically crippled want to live in economically developed places. Because of that nearly 3.5 million Kurdish-origin Turkish citizens went to European countries." He underlined that investments must be done in the region, whatever the cost. "An economic victory should be declared in the southeastern region."

Criticising the foreign policy with neighboring countries, Karaboga said that Turkey has based her relations on politics with neighboring countries and forgot the economic dimension of relations. "Habur border gate is still closed. Our market share in Iraq was 70 percent, but now... If Turkey does not strengthen economic relations with northern Iraq, people in the southeastern region will be in a very difficult position," Karaboga added.

The chairman of Diyarbakir Chamber of Industry and Trade, Kutbettin Arzu, also stressed that such an economically developed Kurdish formation in northern Iraq would not create a demand in Turkey to migrate to northern Iraq. "Turkey is fearing that a formation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq will incite Turkey's Kurds to ask for more rights and to migrate to northern Iraq. However, Turkish Kurds do not want to leave Turkey. Kurds in Turkey are 20 years ahead of Kurds in northern Iraq in terms of social and life standards. Furthermore, the feudal structure in northern Iraq is very strong, but in Turkey this structure was broken up."

Arzu said, "The establishment of such a Kurdish formation in northern Iraq will not create any problem. On the contrary, it will benefit Turkey. If Turkey strengthens her relations with formations there, it will be much better for us. We can easily trade with them. Especially, however, the embargo implemented against Iraq causes serious problems for us. At the moment there is no economy in the region."

Stressing that economic developments of the region were vital, Arzu said, "The region should immediately be developed economically. Investment should be made in the region. This issue has priority in the region."

4. - The Turkish Daily News - "European committee set to take up Oostlander report":

ANKARA / 29 April 2003

The European Parliament's foreign affairs committee is set to discuss and give final shape to a controversial report that has drawn anger from Turkey because of its argument that Turkey's Kemalist ideology is an obstacle for the country's bid to become a member of the European Union.

The report was presented to the committee in March, but more than 300 proposals have been submitted since then to change the proposal. Parliamentarians are expected to give final shape to the text of the report in today's meeting and forward it to the General Assembly.

"The underlying philosophy of the Turkish state, 'Kemalism', implies an exaggerated fear of the undermining of the integrity of the Turkish state and an emphasis on the homogeneity of Turkish culture (nationalism), together with statism, an important role for the army, and a very rigid attitude to religion, which means that this underlying philosophy is itself a barrier to EU membership," said the report, prepared by Christian-Democrat parliamentarian Arie Oostlander of the Netherlands and presented to the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Human Rights, Common Security and Defense Policy (AFET) last month.

The report also criticizes the election system in Turkey and says the 10-percent threshold, though preventing a fragmented Parliament, "sacrificed to that end the representative nature of the Parliament, which now represents only 55 percent of voters."

Relations between Turkey and the EU have been strained recently after a series of controversies breaking out on the Cyprus issue, Turkey's decision to close down a pro-Kurdish party and most recently on European criticisms against Turkish plans to send troops to northern Iraq.

The U.N. Security Council has blamed Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas for the collapse of the Cyprus talks and the EU has said Turkey's membership prospects were linked to its efforts to help a solution in the island.

The report, which immediately elicited an angry reaction from the Turkish side, appeared to be the latest source of tension.

Some of the amendment proposals say the report's references to Kemalism should be erased. Others, on the other hand, look for tougher remarks on Turkey, saying it should call for retrial of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, cancellation of the closure decision against HADEP and recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide.

"The Constitution adopted in 1982 under a military regime does not form an appropriate legal basis to guarantee the rule of law and fundamental freedoms, and Turkey can express its choice of a democratic constitutional model by establishing a new Constitution based on European values," Oostlander's report said.

It noted that solution to the Cyprus problem had a central place in Turkey-EU relations.

It also claimed a radical change in the Turkish state system was necessary, calling for changing the current constitution with a more democratic one, abolishment of the National Security Council (MGK), a powerful body grouping civilian and military leaders, withdrawal of military representatives from civilian bodies such as the high councils on education and the audiovisual media and establishing full Parliamentary control over the military budget as a part of the national budget.

"Turkish citizens credit the military with greater importance even than other state institutions including Parliament," it said and added, "The army's role slows down Turkey's development towards a democratic and pluralist system."

The report said: "The political values of the European Union are chiefly based on the Judaeo-Christian and humanist culture of Europe, but that no-one has a monopoly on these values... Therefore, that these values can perfectly well be accepted and defended by a mainly Islamic society."

5. - MSNBC/NTV - "Verheugen: Chance for EU-Turkey negotiation in 2005":

The EU Commissioner called for a reappraisal of the role of the Armed Forces in Turkish life.

29 April 2003

The European Union could open preliminary accession negotiations with Turkey as early as the first half of 2005, as long as Ankara had fulfilled the political requirements of membership, the EU’s commissioner responsible for the bloc’s expansion process said on Monday.

Turkey’s status would be assessed in a major review in 2004, said EU Commissioner Günter Verheugen, and the progress it had made towards meeting the membership criteria would be the deciding factor on whether accession talks opened the following year.

“We will study the reforms and if the results are positive and the political criteria have been met then we will start full membership negotiations without delay,” he said.

However the EU Commissioner warned that time would be needed to put in place some technical details ahead of the talks, meaning that the negotiations could only begin in the first half of 2005.

While Turkey had made great strides in implementing required reforms and the present government was committed to Turkey’s EU path, Verheugen said that there was still much to be done.

One thing that needed to be addressed was the role of military in Turkey, he said, adding that as this was a sensitive issue the EU had not as yet touched upon it greatly.

“The role of the military should be regulated,” he said. “There is no excuse for having military representatives in organisations of education, radio and television. Turkey has to be in harmony with the EU on this issue.”

He praised the recent decision of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to open its borders with the Greek Cypriots administered south of the island. He said that he had strong belief that there could be a solution in Cyprus, hopefully before the deadline of May 1.

6. - AFP - "Turkish prosecutor charges Kurdish party with links to armed rebels":

ANKARA / 29 April 2003

Turkey's chief prosecutor Tuesday accused the country's main pro-Kurdish party of links to separatist Kurdish rebels and demanded it be banned, Anatolia news agency reported.

The Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) is already risking a ban in an ongoing case at the constitutional court for falsifying official documents to guarantee a spot in last year's general elections.

The court may now merge the two cases if it decides that they are legally related.