4
April 2003
2. "Greek Cypriot leader rejects Denktash concessions, insists on U.N. plan", the Greek Cypriot leader rejected a peace bid by his Turkish counterpart Thursday and instead appealed to him to reconsider a U.N. plan for reunifying the war-divided island.
3. "Kurdish diary: The opposition senses change", these are confusing times for the Iraqi opposition to Saddam Hussein, and I came to Dokan expecting to find the Iraqi National Congress downbeat.
4. "Kurdish Farmers Head Home As Iraqis Abandon Villages", for 16 years, the village has been called Hadidyin, an Arabic name, and populated only by Iraqi Arabs. From now on it will go by its Kurdish name, Shamamar, and soon Kurds will return to live here.
5. "Kirkuk: A disaster waiting to happen", Washington is concerned by Ankara's insistence on sending troops into northern Iraq, fearing clashes between Turkish soldiers and Kurdish fighters.
6. "Turkey and United States focus on cooperation following friendly talks", from the Turkish perspective, the centerpiece of the framework agreement is the formation of a joint monitoring group for northern Iraq.
1. - USA Today - "Kurds' support in war raises hopes for democratic Iraq":
Editorial, 4 April 2003
Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Turkey this week on a mission to mend fences. And vast repairs are needed on both sides. Turkey's refusal to provide a launchpad for American troops to invade northern Iraq set back U.S. war plans. It cost the Turkish economy at least $6 billion in aid.
While the fallout from the diplomatic disaster won't be easily overcome, it provides the U.S. an unexpected benefit. Turkey's help beyond its consent for the U.S. to use its airspace and move some supplies over land would have carried a steep cost beyond the U.S. aid: approval for Turkish troops to enter northern Iraq to keep the Kurds in check.
Instead, the Kurds are now the indispensable U.S. allies in the north, with 60,000 hardened fighters helping secure Iraqi territory. That presents the U.S. important long-term opportunities along with the short-term military advantages.
The Iraq war is not just about replacing Saddam Hussein's regime but also about projecting a better future for the battered country. For almost 12 years, the Kurds have had the democratic, prosperous life President Bush has sketched out for the rest of Iraq. Protected by U.S. and British planes that kept out Saddam's forces, they set up their own parliament and bustling economy.
The Kurds' powerful example can serve as a starting template for Iraq and the region. But that requires a clear U.S. commitment to maintain the Kurds' autonomy within an Iraqi federation of states. So far, U.S. officials insist only that Iraq remain a federation, with few details of how free the parts would be.
Such vagueness allays fears in the region about a Kurdish separatist movement. As the world's largest ethnic group without a country, 25 million Kurds are spread among three other countries, Turkey, Syria and Iran. Each nation wants to stop moves that could encourage an independent Kurdistan. Turkey has threatened to send massive troops to northern Iraq if the Kurds attempt to seize extra territory or mention independence.
The U.S. can calm fears of a Kurdish uprising by repeating loudly and often the guarantee Powell gave in Turkey this week: The Kurds will remain part of an Iraq federation.
The potential benefits of that policy are considerable. Already, with just the hope of preserving their autonomy under U.S. protection, Iraq's Kurds have formally given up demands for independence.
And in addition to serving as a stable presence, a Kurdish state could be a valuable counterweight in Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. Unlike most countries in the region, the Kurds have good relations with Israel.
Though Turkey fears the Kurds will use autonomy as a steppingstone to independence, other critics of the U.S. approach believe the Kurds deserve their own country, as promised by Britain after World War I.
A U.S. guarantee of limited autonomy is not only the best compromise, it also can help erase a past American failure. The U.S. encouraged the Kurds to rise up against Saddam at the end of the 1991 Gulf War, then allowed the Iraqi dictator's forces to repress them, killing thousands.
Turkey's refusal to let the U.S. open a northern front and the Kurds' war support open the way for the U.S. to become a forceful advocate for the very kind of society it hopes the rest of Iraq will emulate.
By following through on that commitment, the U.S. would help dispel
a longstanding Kurdish saying: "We have no friends but the mountains."
2. - Associated Press - "Greek Cypriot leader rejects Denktash concessions, insists on U.N. plan":
NICOSIA / 4 April 2003
by Alex Efty
The Greek Cypriot leader rejected a peace bid by his Turkish counterpart Thursday and instead appealed to him to reconsider a U.N. plan for reunifying the war-divided island.
President Tassos Papadopoulos challenged Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash to accept the plan by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan ''as a basis for negotiations.''
Annan blamed Denktash for the collapse of reunification talks in the Netherlands last month. Papadopoulos embraced the U.N. plan but Denktash rejected it.
On Wednesday, Denktash sent a letter to Papadopoulos offering concessions designed to increase confidence and contacts between Greek and Turkish Cypriots.
In his reply Thursday, Papadopoulos said he did not share Denktash's view that the ''stalemate'' in talks was due primarily to a ''deep crisis of confidence.'' He also said Annan's plan ''represents the best hope for us to proceed toward a comprehensive settlement.''
The island split between Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sections since Turkey invaded in 1974 after an abortive coup by supporters of union with Greece.
The breakaway Turkish Cypriot state in the north is recognized only by Turkey, which keeps 40,000 troops there.
The Security Council is expected to discuss Cyprus in the next few days, and Papadopoulos said he hoped it would ask Annan to continue his initiative.
Annan's plan envisioned the reunification of Cyprus as a single state with the Greek and Turkish sections linked through a weak central government.
Denktash's proposals include letting Greek Cypriot refugees return to the Greek Cypriot sector of Famagusta, a city abandoned since 1974.
He also proposed lifting trade, travel and cultural restrictions; allowing freedom of movement between both sides; dropping restrictions on the movement of U.N. peacekeepers on the Turkish side; and establishing a reconciliation commission.
Denktash's proposals appeared designed to influence the impending discussion at the United Nations, as well as to persuade the internationally recognized Cyprus government to reconsider its commitment to join the EU next year.
Benefits flowing from EU membership will not apply to the north until the island is reunified.
Cyprus's accession to the EU in 2004 will cause serious problems for Turkey if the island remains divided. EU officials have warned Turkey's own bid to join would be jeopardized if it continues to occupy part of a new member state.
Turkey was disappointed with Papadopoulos' response to Denktash's letter.
''We would have expected the Greek side to view the proposals in a positive way,'' said Tacan Ildem, spokesman for Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer.
Denktash has warned that the chances of a breakthrough will diminish if Cyprus signs its accession treaty with nine other new EU members on April 16 as planned.
Denktash, in power since the 1974 invasion, opposed the Annan reunification plan primarily because it ruled out international recognition of his breakaway state before any federation is formed.
But his intransigence has been unpopular among ordinary Turkish Cypriots.
Tens of thousands of protesters have demanded his resignation.
3. - The Financial Times - "Kurdish diary: The opposition senses change":
by Gareth Smyth in Dokan, northern Iraq
April 3, 2003
These are confusing times for the Iraqi opposition to Saddam Hussein, and I came to Dokan expecting to find the Iraqi National Congress downbeat. The US state department has again been spinning against the INC leader, Ahmed Chalabi, whom they have long resented despite his long-standing backing from the Pentagon and ability to coax financial support from the US Congress.
Dokan became a tourist resort after a dam was built in the 1950s. Saddam Hussein had a house here, as did Ali Hassan Majid and other Ba'athist leaders.
Now it is in the Kurdish-held zone and the INC has taken over a hotel overlooking the lake. In the lobby I found a strange mixture of people. Some had recognisable roles, and some didn't. This is a fluid situation, as political forces and actors, covert and overt, Iraqi and foreign, all manoeuvre for position.
The INC leader was "too busy with operational matters" to see me, said Nabil Mousawi, his spokesman, but Mr Mousawi himself was able to supply the mix of optimism and Iraqi resilience that characterises his boss.
Mr Mousawi is from the Najaf branch of a large Shia family that extends to Lebanon, where it has provided many members of Hizbollah, including Abbas Mousawi, the party leader killed by Israel in 1992.
"It's true," Nabil agreed, "we're not a family that could be regarded as 'pro-American'."
But that did not preclude his support for the US war effort.
"We will soon be playing our full role, including militarily," he said, insisting that INC troops, who were drilling in the spring sunshine outside the hotel, numbered "thousands, not hundreds".
He detected my raised eyebrows but pressed on. "Within two to three days there will be a dramatic change. This is a state of war and the rules have changed. We like this. It's a golden period."
As ever with Ahmed Chalabi and his close allies, there is a political logic. Mr Chalabi has long wanted a closer relationship between the US and the Iraqi opposition, and now feels that the slow progress of the war and the Americans' difficulty in winning hearts and minds means the US will turn to the opposition.
"The Americans have discussed the cost of conducting this campaign on their own," said Mr Mousawi. "This was sheer arrogance - they thought they could drive their tanks in and appoint whomever they wanted in Baghdad."
The opposition still needs the US more than vice versa, but the balance is shifting.
In the north, the joint Kurdish-US operation against Ansar al-Islam, the Islamist group, was successful with 22 Kurdish casualties and no US casualties. The Kurds argue the formula could work with the government-held cities of Kirkuk and Mosul - so avoiding the need for US troops to engage in street-to-street fighting.
At the same time, the US difficulties in managing the civilian population suggest they cannot "occupy" Iraq and impose a military ruler, as some in the US administration want.
"Sovereignty should be transferred to the [opposition] leadership council," said Mr Mousawi. "This is a point of principle - we will not give way."
Practical help is as important as principle. Also in the hotel lobby was Mahdi Abdullah al-Duleimi, a former Iraqi general.
"The Iraqi people want liberation from this regime, but they
don't like to be conquered by the Americans," he told me. "It
is difficult for the 'coalition' to attack towns, but we could be
there to bring the people and some of the army over to us. We have
to be there to make connections. They know us as officers. They trust
us."
4. - The Washington Post - "Kurdish Farmers Head Home As Iraqis Abandon Villages":
Hussein's Forces Retreat, Leaving 'Arabized' Settlements Exposed
SHAMAMAR, Iraq / April 4, 2003
by Daniel Williams
Amir Shaykhani would like to announce a name change for his home village. For 16 years, it has been called Hadidyin, an Arabic name, and populated only by Iraqi Arabs. From now on it will go by its Kurdish name, Shamamar, and soon Kurds will return to live here.
Shaykhani left the village at the age of 10, clutching blankets and pots, when President Saddam Hussein's forces crushed a Kurdish revolt in northern Iraq. On his homecoming today, Shaykhani wielded an AK-47 assault rifle as a fighter in the anti-Hussein Kurdish militia known as pesh merga, or "those who face death."
The Arab inhabitants fled over night. "God willing, they will not come back," he told visiting reporters.
This week, as Iraqi forces have withdrawn from the frontline positions that separate government-held territory from an autonomous Kurdish zone, they left Arab residents of the area exposed. The Arabs were settled in hamlets once populated by Kurds in a program designed to alter the ethnic balance of the oil-rich region.
Tens of thousands of ethnic Kurds say they want to go home -- not only to mud-hut communities like this one, but to the major cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. So far, they are moving gingerly. Kurdish authorities have forbidden wholesale, unorganized returns. Shaykhani was part of a pesh merga unit inspecting Shamamar and securing a checkpoint on the main road close by. The village sits about 22 miles from the Kurdish-controlled city of Irbil on the way to Mosul, another 25 miles away.
Slivers of northern Iraq that only a few days ago were defended by Baghdad's forces are entering an era without Hussein's rule. The end of "Arabization" is an ardent Kurdish desire. Kurdish officials say they hope to gain political influence in a future, democratic Iraq, ending a long period of repression punctuated by frequent Kurdish revolts.
The Arab settlers left late Wednesday, firing a few shots as the pesh merga approached, Shaykhani said. The Arabs had evidently prepared their exit in advance. The houses were empty and only one stray dog remained. The doors had been pried off their hinges and carted away. "They knew they would have to leave when we came," said Shaykhani.
Nearby Iraqi army units had been hit by heavy U.S. bombing. The mangled hulk of a truck that carried mortar shells lay a few miles north on the road. Some of the shells were strewn several yards over the surrounding pasture.
During the 1987 revolt, Iraqi soldiers razed Shamamar, at the time populated by about 100 families. The Arabs, brought in from a region west of Mosul, built mud and wattle huts in their desert style: sloped roofs each with a tower, unfenced yards and small rooms. The Kurds prefer flat-roofed houses enclosed by walls with big rooms. "We won't move into their houses," Shaykhani said. "We will live in tents before rebuilding our houses in our way."
This is a part of the world where the possessive is an extremely important part of speech. Our land, our language, our house, our music, our poetry, our customs; this is the grammar of personal identity. Devotion to a nation-state is secondary. In dealing with restive minorities like the Kurds, governments across the region have used a variety of strategies, mostly repressive. For decades, Turkey declined to accept the notion of a Kurdish ethnic group. They were labeled "Mountain Turks."
Saddam Hussein recognized the Kurds as a constituent Iraqi ethnic group, even while designating Iraq an Arab republic. In crushing Kurdish uprisings, he took increasingly harsh steps to obliterate the fabric of Kurdish life. During the 1980s, he destroyed thousands of villages throughout the north to drive the Kurds into cities. The Arabization campaign included pressure on Kurds to register themselves officially as Arabs.
American bombing and a tactical Iraqi retreat closer to Mosul and Kirkuk have opened the way for a Kurdish return to a handful of locations. Dozens of villages, some destroyed, some populated by Arabs, lie in the territory around both cities. Until today, the Iraqi pullback had been mostly orderly. However, bombing intensified all along the line north of Kirkuk and Mosul.
A few miles northwest of the town of Kalek, on the main Irbil-Mosul road, U.S. special forces working with the Kurdish militias joined a firefight, directing machine gun fire at a bridge. F-14 Tomcats bombed Iraqi positions, but by late afternoon, the Iraqis were still holding on, sending mortars and artillery toward Kalek, which they had abandoned the night before. Airstrikes from AC-130 planes targeted an Iraqi mechanized battalion in the area.
Nonetheless, the Iraqis still control important approaches to oil fields between Kirkuk and Mosul and the main road that connects the two cities.
At a ridge north-northwest of Kalek, residents of Gurilan village made their way to a twin hamlet just two miles away. The shepherds and farmers inhabit what until today was called Kurdish Gurilan. Arab Gurilan was the object of their visit. The last Arab residents fled this morning. They left behind empty houses, a school, a mosque, a police station, perimeter trenches, six donkeys, a couple flocks of ducks and some chickens.
Arab Gurilan sits on land that once belonged to Kurdish Gurilan. Except for a few smugglers, the Kurds had not visited the area since 1974, when the government confiscated their wheat fields during another Kurdish revolt. "We will not let the Arabs come back. They had never lived here before. They are kind of enemies. This is our fathers' and grandfathers' land. That was not right," said Mohammed Ramazan , Kurdish Gurilan's mukhtar, or traditional leader.
Ramazan, 56, said he had not decided whether Kurds will move into the Arab houses. Several dozen Kurdish Gurilan families live in Irbil as refugees. "I hope they will want to come here. They are our relatives," Ramazan said. "I am happy we have our land back. God willing, we will have freedom from Saddam soon."
Kurdish officials authorized Shaykhani's visit to Shamamar. The Kurdistan Democratic Party, which administers this part of northern Iraq, has been keeping a tight leash on returnees; checkpoints on the road were turning back curiosity seekers to Irbil. Kurdish authorities are especially concerned about a return to Kirkuk because Turkey has threatened to invade if the Kurds take the city. No imminent assault on Kirkuk appears in the works. The United States lacks forces to attack the city and employing the Kurds as a battering ram would be a major departure from Washington's policy of fighting in Iraq without the aid of local forces.
Ramazan's visit to Arab Gurilan was spontaneous. He does not belong to the pesh merga, although his villagers are armed.
But they didn't need to fire a shot to reclaim this territory. One young man, however, used his shotgun to bring down a pigeon for lunch. In the background the occasional thump of aerial bombing broke the rural silence.
Staff writer Steve Vogel contributed to this report from Irbil,
Iraq.
5. - The Asia Times - "Kirkuk: A disaster waiting to happen":
by K Gajendra Singh / 4 April 2003
Shuffling back into his aircraft on Tuesday night in Ankara, a tired Colin Powell's body language said it all. The result of the US secretary of state's one-day visit to repair Washington's relations with a now somewhat recalcitrant Turkey, its faithful ally for 50 years, can at best be described as resumption of dialogue after a howling matrimonial argument in public by a previously happily married couple.
But the restoration of full conjugal relations is still far off. If in the early 1950s Turkey, threatened by the Soviet Union, needed the shelter of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it is now the United States that needs Turkey more than the other way around - not only to beef up its war effort in Iraq, but also for the future stability and security of the region.
Now, after the fallout over Turkey refusing to allow US troops access to its territory, both sides have sobered up. Even Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, a former head of the Constitutional Court and a stickler for the international legality of the war in Iraq, has relented somewhat and said a few days ago that the US had not made any demands on Turkey for a possible Turkish contribution to the Iraq war effort. "If a demand comes from the US, Turkey will then consider it," he said. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and especially Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul have also made soothing noises about the eternal friendship, close relationship and mutual respect and understanding between the two countries.
En route to Ankara, Powell told reporters that the US administration would ask for Turkish support, but did not specify exactly what kind of support this might entail. "But we're not looking at any requests we were looking at a month or so ago," added Powell, apparently referring to the US troop-deployment request turned down by the Turkish parliament. These would be requests having to do with just sustaining US operations in northern Iraq, and should be not difficult for the Turks to accommodate, Powell said.
And so it turned out. Ankara agreed to authorize the transit of tanker trucks bringing fuel and other supplies to US armed forces stationed in northern Iraq. "We have solved all the outstanding issues with respect to providing supplies through Turkey to those units that are doing such a wonderful job in northern Iraq to keep the situation [there] stable," Powell said.
Gul said the assistance required by the US was covered by an earlier bilateral memorandum of understanding and that there was no need for the Turkish government to request parliamentary approval. He also confirmed that US military aircraft had been authorized to make emergency landings at Turkish air bases, which would also accept US soldiers injured in northern Iraq.
Significantly, Powell said that "full support for humanitarian efforts as well as support of our troops that are now in northern Iraq would help in passing the $1 billion in aid proposed for Turkey". Some US congressmen have insisted that a request made by President George W Bush to earmark US$1 billion in aid to Turkey as part of the US war effort be turned down. They openly blame Ankara's decision on not allowing in US troops for hampering the US-led coalition's war plans and making the offensive on Baghdad much more difficult.
Details relating to the exact nature of supplies for US forces in northern Iraq were withheld. It is unclear whether the supplies would include weapons. The agreement also provides for setting up a US-Turkish joint monitoring group to watch the border situation with Iraq to make sure that the situation does not arise in which Turkey would be compelled to send its troops across the border.
Washington is concerned by Ankara's insistence on sending troops into northern Iraq, fearing clashes between Turkish soldiers and Kurdish fighters. Ankara, in turn, is worried that Iraqi Kurds might take advantage of the US military buildup in the area to seize the oil-rich cities of Kirkuk and Mosul in a bid to sustain their de facto autonomy. Turkey is also concerned at the prospect of armed militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) infiltrating refugees and reigniting guerrilla warfare in southeastern Anatolia.
On Monday, US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said that, despite Turkey's concerns, Washington is adamant about not allowing Turkish troops to set foot in northern Iraq. "We don't think there should be a Turkish incursion in northern Iraq or any uncoordinated movement of forces. The approach we have taken is that the United States believes that through our own efforts and through our cooperation with Turkey and with the groups in northern Iraq, we can avoid the kind of instability, the kind of refugee flows, the kind of terrorism, the kind of dangers that Turkey is legitimately concerned about," Boucher said.
Ankara last month sent a 1,200-strong military contingent to northern Iraq. That's on top of the hundreds or thousands of troops Turkey is said to have deployed south of its border with Iraq in recent years to prevent PKK forays.
Despite the goodwill over Powell's visit, many problems remain. First is the issue of whether Turkey can fully trust the United States. Take the territorial integrity of Iraq, which has been divided de facto since 1991 with Iraqi forces barred from entering Kurdish-controlled areas in the north, which now has a parliament and a government with a prime minister.
This was done by the governments of the United Kingdom and the United States, which have maintained a no-flying zone for Iraqi aircraft, called Operation Provide Comfort, to protect Kurds from Saddam Hussein's forces, against the wishes of the other members of the United Nations Security Council and much of international opinion since 1991. The US had threatened to use an unused aerodrome in Kurdish northern Iraq for this operation, so Turkey reluctantly let the US use its base at Incirlik near Adana, which has provided little comfort to Turks and its extension every six months rubs in the discomfort. After the war this arrangement will have lapsed and the US aircraft will be expected to leave.
And even if Iraqi forces just disappear from Iraqi Kurdistan, as northern Iraq is known, what are the expectations of the Kurds? After 12 years of virtual independence in their enclaves, never mind their squabbling (tribals have always lived like that) they will expect full de jure independence. And many Kurds, at the sight of Kirkuk and its wealth of oil wells, might even declare unilateral independence. Then will Turkey jump!
But before that there could even be a civil war. In the words of the Human Rights Watch (HRW) representative in Erbil, northern Iraq, "Widespread reprisal killings, retaliatory forced displacement and other acts of violence against resettled families are possible once tens of thousands of forcibly displaced people return to reclaim their homes. Oil-rich Kirkuk, currently under Iraqi government control, has been the target of US aerial bombing for the last several days. US paratroopers have landed in Iraqi Kurdistan and it is likely that US and coalition ground forces will enter the city in the near future," said HRW.
"Kirkuk is a disaster waiting to happen," Hania Mufti, the London director for the Middle East and North Africa Division of HRW, now based in Erbil, said in a statement. "If a plan for the gradual and orderly return of these displaced civilians is not drawn up soon and implemented before the ground offensive begins, there is a real possibility that the city will erupt into inter-ethnic violence."
Since the 1991 Gulf War, it has been reported that the Iraqi government has systematically expelled an estimated 120,000 Kurds, Turkomans, and Assyrians from Kirkuk and other towns and villages in this oil-rich region. Most have settled in the Kurdish-controlled northern provinces. Meanwhile, in a process called "Arabization", the Iraqi government has resettled Arab families in their place in an attempt to reduce the political power and presence of ethnic minorities.
HRW researchers based in northern Iraq say that the United States has not prepared for the return of displaced residents of Kirkuk. "We have found no evidence that US political and military leaders have prepared for the consequences of a massive influx of returnees with grievances against those who forced them from their homes, as well as those who now live in their homes," said Mufti.
During talks in Ankara last month, US, Turkish and Iraqi opposition officials discussed the idea of creating a coalition commission to oversee issues relating to the northern front, including the orderly return of internally displaced people to Kirkuk. "To date, however, no such commission has been established," said Mufti. "Kurdish officials told Human Rights Watch that they were uncertain as to the role of their armed forces during any eventual ground offensive on Kirkuk. Both Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Mas'ud Barzani and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) leader Jalal Talabani have agreed to commit their Peshmerga forces only with US approval and under its command. Until now, the United States has not asked for such participation, but that position could change in the light of Turkey's refusal to grant access to US forces through its territory. It is paramount that the United States immediately address the consequences of a future assault on Kirkuk."
HRW urged the US to make concrete plans for the gradual and orderly return of forcibly displaced residents, for the control of mass population flows, for the removal of land mines and unexploded ordnance, and for the implementation of security measures to deal with any outbreaks of violence.
K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.
(Additional reporting by Jean-Christophe Peuch of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty.)
6. - Eurasianet - "Turkey and United States focus on cooperation following friendly talks":
A EurasiaNet Commentary
by Mevlut Katik / 4 April 2003
US-Turkish tension is easing following US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s recent visit to Ankara. The renewed spirit of cooperation is built on an understanding that Turkey will expand its assistance to US forces operating in northern Iraq. In return, Turkish leaders reportedly have received assurances that Ankara’s security interests in northern Iraq will be respected.
Powell and Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul hammered out cooperation parameters during talks April 2. Under the new framework, Turkey will permit US forces to transport non-lethal military supplies via Turkish territory into northern Iraq. Ankara also will broaden access to its air bases for US military planes that need to make emergency landings, or that are evacuating wounded military personnel.
From the Turkish perspective, the centerpiece of the framework agreement is the formation of a joint monitoring group for northern Iraq. That body’s main aim is to prevent circumstances from arising that might prompt Turkey to deploy its military in northern Iraq.
Even before the start of hostilities against Baghdad, Turkish political and military leaders had voiced concerns about Kurdish forces in northern Iraq possibly taking advantage of the imminent collapse of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s authority to establish an independent state. Such a development, Ankara fears, would reignite a Kurdish separatist struggle in Turkey. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Turkish officials have said the country’s military might be deployed in northern Iraq to discourage a flood of refugees into Turkey.
Powell supposedly assured Gul that Washington would not tolerate any move by Kurdish forces to establish an independent state in northern Iraq, according to Turkish media reports. Those same reports also claimed the secretary of state indicated that US troops would restrain Kurdish forces, and would prevent the northern Iraqi cities of Mosul and Kirkuk from falling under Kurdish control.
The day after the Powell visit, about 50 unarmed US military vehicles crossed from Turkey into northern Iraq. In all, roughly 200 US vehicles, mainly Humvee jeeps, are expected to enter Iraq from Turkey. Turkish military officials have issued a statement stressing that no weapons or munitions are crossing Turkish territory into Iraq.
The US-Turkish agreement appeared to clear the way for a $1 billion US aid package to Turkey, which Ankara needs to plug anticipated budget gaps for the country’s struggling economy. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Ultimately, Turkey could leverage up to $8.5 billion in loan guarantees. Powell told reporters the day before the meeting that US aid should not be considered "payment for anything or to compensate for anything."
In addition, the US-Turkish rapprochement could give Ankara a greater say in the establishment of Iraq’s post-war order. Turkish media reported that Washington is open to giving Turkish contractors and suppliers a significant role in Iraq’s reconstruction process.
Turkish political commentators generally characterized the agreement as a political victory for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government. "Powell’s visit has in fact succeeded in mending strained ties," Fikret Bila wrote in the Milliyet daily April 3. "The Bush administration has come to understand that it pursued a mistaken policy towards Ankara."
In arguing Turkey’s importance to the Iraq campaign, Gul emphasized Turkey’s potential role as a conduit for humanitarian aid. "Providing foodstuff and fuel and other humanitarian assistance facilities to the United States will continue," Gul told reporters. "We have been allowing airplanes in distress to land in Turkish airfields, and also for the evacuation of wounded people from the region."
US-Turkish relations sharply deteriorated following the Turkish parliament’s March 1 vote to deny basing rights to US troops for the purpose of opening a northern front in Iraq. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Iraq war remains deeply unpopular for the vast majority of Turkish citizens, and Ankara has remained steadfast in its refusal to permit US military operations to originate in Turkish territory.
Powell and Gul did not pretend that one day of talks had resolved all bilateral disagreements. Powell has expressed "lingering disappointment" that the Turkish parliament rejected the American requests for access to military bases. At the same time, Erdogan stressed that Turkey reserved the right to send troops into northern Iraq if Ankara deemed such action necessary.
Working out the details of the joint monitoring group for northern Iraq could prove complicated. The two sides must resolve questions concerning ethnic representation on the "early warning" commission. Turkey would prefer to bar Kurdish participation, while including Turks living in Iraq. Powell told reporters he expected monitoring group-related issues to be resolved within a week.
Powell also indicated that the United States expected Turkey to fulfill its international obligations in the event that a refugee crisis developed in northern Iraq. "I know that the Turkish government will always act in a humanitarian way with respect to anybody who might be in distress at a particular time," Powell said.
Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and
analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The
Economist group.