11 December 2003

1. "Turkey hopes the EU will recognize its progress on human rights", Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday he hoped the European Union would recognize steps taken by Turkey to meet its criteria on human rights and democracy in its bid for EU membership.

2. "Turkey vows to heed EU criticism of controversial penal code draft", Turkey's Justice Minister on Wednesday pledged to amend a draft penal code which came under fire from the European Union for failing to ensure gender equality.

3. "Turkey expects positive Cyprus message from EU summit", The EU's Brussels summit is expected to highlight the benefits of a solution in Cyprus, a move that diplomatic sources say shows the good intention on the part of the union.

4. "EU keeping close eye on Turkish Cyprus election", The European Union will be watching weekend elections in Turkish Cyprus closely for signs that the breakaway republic is moving closer to the EU.

5. "Will Turkey meet the strategic challenge in Georgia?", Many Turkish critics are chastising Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkey’s tentative outreach to the reformists who succeeded Shevardnadze.

6. "Why is this election so important?", No election in Northern Cyprus has ever gotten so much attention of not only Turkey but also the entire world because this is like a referendum which will have international ripples.


1. - AFP - "Turkey hopes the EU will recognize its progress on human rights":

ANKARA / 11 Dec 2003

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday he hoped the European Union would recognize steps taken by Turkey to meet its criteria on human rights and democracy in its bid for EU membership.
"We are hoping for support from European leaders at a political level for progress made by Turkey," Erdogan told reporters before flying to Brussels for a two-day EU summit. He said he was confident that Turkey's candidacy would get "the support it deserves".
Unlike 10 other nations that have been given a date for joining the EU next year, Turkey has been told that the Union will assess its progress a year from now before deciding whether or not to open negotiations.
In particular, the EU's executive arm, the European Commission, said last month that Turkey must do more to limit the traditional influence of the military over political life.
Among a swath of reforms adopted in recent years to meet EU norms, parliament voted on Wednesday to lift a ban on publishing information related to the work and personnel of the country's top advisory body, the military-dominated National Security Council.
Deputy Premier Mehmet Ali Sahin told lawmakers that their decision was "very important in raising the standard of our democracy."


2. - AFP - "Turkey vows to heed EU criticism of controversial penal code draft":

ANKARA / 10 December 2003

Turkey's Justice Minister Cemil Cicek on Wednesday pledged to amend a draft penal code which came under fire from the European Union for failing to ensure gender equality in the mainly Muslim country with aspirations to join the pan-European bloc.
"I know that the draft has deficiencies, but these deficiencies are being taken care off in line with the proposals put forward," Cicek told a gathering organized by women's organizations to discuss the draft code.
His remarks followed sharp criticism from the EU representative in Turkey that the draft contradicted the country's drive to become an EU member.
"This draft of the Turkish penal code appears to be at odds with Turkey's ambition to fulfill the political criteria" required for EU membership, Hans Joerg Kretcshmer told the meeting.
"I would even go so far as to say that this draft contradicts largely the determination to progress on democratization put forward by the Turkish government," he added.
The bulky draft has also been the target of criticism from women's groups since the government submitted it to parliament in October. It is currently under discussion in a parliamentary commission.
One of the most controversial articles in the draft envisages the dropping of all charges against a person suspected of rape if he agrees to marry his victim.
The article holds true even in cases of collective rape. If one of the suspects agrees to marry the victim, cherges are dropped against all the accused.
"The idea here is that marriage is the only way for a woman to save her honour which has been tainted by rape. But this is wrong," Senal Sarihan, an influential lawyer from an umbrella organization bringin together women's rights groups, told the meeting.
"This article harms the dignity of both us women and Turkey," she added.
Other articles in the draft envisage reductions in jail terms handed down to perpetrators of honour killings and reductions in punishments for mothers who kill their children born out of wedlock.
The draft is also under fire for failing to describe incest, sexual harassment in the office and marital rape as crimes.
Improving its poor human rights record is one the conditions Turkey has to fulfill to realize its aspiration to become and EU member.
EU leaders are set to assess Turkey's progress in December 2004 before deciding whether to open accession talks with the mainly Muslim country.


3. - Turkish Daily News - "Turkey expects positive Cyprus message from EU summit":

The EU's Brussels summit is expected to highlight the benefits of a solution in Cyprus, a move that diplomatic sources say shows the good intention on the part of the union

ANKARA / 11 December 2003

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul are heading to Brussels this week to attend a meeting of European Union leaders. With the text of a final declaration to follow the summit still being drafted, Turkey's expectations focused on the reference that this declaration would make to the Cyprus issue.

In a progress report released in early November, the EU Commission said that failure to solve the Cyprus problem could "constitute a serious obstacle" to Turkey's own membership bid, in the clearest-ever sign ever given by the EU between Turkey's accession process and the Cyprus issue.

Turkey has said that its bid is not linked to solution efforts in the island.

The Brussels summit's reference to the Cyprus issue is expected to be a far more positive than the mention included the Progress Report's assessment.

Reversing the Progress Report's reference, the EU will this time say that a solution on the island will considerably ease Turkey's membership efforts, a formula that highlights the "carrot" rather than the "stick."

Turkish diplomatic sources welcomed the change in the Cyprus reference as a sign of "the EU's good intention" and of the fact that Turkey's efforts towards a solution are appreciated by the EU.

Turkey to attend IGC
The two-day EU summit of heads of state and government will start in Brussels on Dec. 12. An Inter-governmental Conference (IGC) will follow the summit.

The summit will be attended by leaders of EU countries and those countries that are slated to join the union in May 2004. Turkey, together with Bulgaria and Romania, two countries that are expected to become members in 2007, will attend only the IGC.

The main focus of the summit will be on efforts to prepare a constitution for the EU. The accession of 10 countries next May will also be discussed.

Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul will hold bilateral talks with their EU counterparts on the sideline of the summit and the IGC.


4. - EUbusiness - "EU keeping close eye on Turkish Cyprus election":

11 December 2003

The European Union will be watching weekend elections in Turkish Cyprus closely for signs that the breakaway republic is moving closer to the EU just months before its Greek rival joins the bloc.

Whatever the result of Sunday's parliamentary poll, Brussels is ratcheting up the pressure on Turkey to broker a deal that would allow a reunified Cyprus to join the EU along with nine other countries in May 2004.

Turkey's own hopes of entering the EU could depend on an end to the three-decade-old division of Cyprus between Turkish and Greek zones.

This weekend's election in the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is widely seen as a referendum on a UN plan to reunify the island on its accession to the EU.

The plan, drawn up by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, collapsed in March. The UN has pinned the blame mainly on veteran TRNC leader Rauf Denktash, who is fiercely opposed to the reunification scheme.

The pro-EU opposition, which says it is ready to negotiate the Annan plan, is expected to make significant gains in the elections.

"It's clear that an opposition victory would open up more prospects than if Denktash's party wins the election," an EU diplomat said.

But he added: "The key lies with Ankara. It's not just up to Mr Denktash. It will depend essentially on the Turks, on the Greek Cypriots, on the Greeks and on the UN."

The EU says the Turkish Cypriots will be denied entry if a solution is not reached in time, a prospect that threatens to damage ties between Brussels and Ankara, which maintains some 30,000 troops in the TRNC.

Turkey would find itself in the unenviable position of refusing to recognise an EU member -- the internationally recognised Greek-Cypriot government -- while also seeking to launch accession negotiations to join the EU itself.

The TRNC was declared in 1983 but is recognised by no one apart from Turkey.

Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey occupied the north in response to an Athens-engineered coup aimed at uniting the island with Greece.

A spokesman for EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen said that if Denktash's opponents gain ground on Sunday, "that's a political reality that we'll have to take into account".

But he added that the vote is to elect a parliament in an "entity that we do not recognise".

"We therefore don't recognise this parliament, we therefore don't recognise these elections."

Nevertheless the EU has made clear that it would be happy to welcome a reunified Cyprus into the fold if a settlement can be reached before May 1, the date set for the bloc's "big bang" enlargement.

At a summit this weekend, EU leaders are expected to draw an explicit link between a deal on Cyprus and progress on Turkey's own bid to join the organisation.

A settlement in respect of the Mediterranean island "would greatly facilitate Turkey's membership aspirations", draft conclusions for the summit say.

Last month the European Commission warned in an annual report on EU candidate states that "the absence of a (Cyprus) settlement could become a serious obstacle to Turkey's EU aspirations".

The Brussels EU executive has pledged to provide an assessment by next November on whether Turkey is ready or not to begin EU talks. EU leaders will then make a decision on whether to open negotiations in December 2004.


5. - EurasiaNet - "Will Turkey meet the strategic challenge in Georgia?":

by Mevlut Katik / 12 December 2003

Many Turkish critics are chastising Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkey’s tentative outreach to the reformists who succeeded Shevardnadze on November 23.

Turkey’s focus was elsewhere. As Shevardnadze was resigning, effectively acknowledging that he had overseen rigged parliamentary elections on November 2, Turkey was dealing with devastating suicide bombings in Istanbul and preparing for elections in Cyprus this month. Those elections are key to Turkey’s bid to join the European Union. But Turkey’s inveterate caution and single-minded focus on Europe may stunt relations with Georgia and the rest of the Caucasus. While President Ahmet Necdet Sezer waited more than a week after Shevardnadze quit to telephone interim Georgian president Nino Burjanadze- and reportedly called Shevardnadze as well- Russia sent its foreign minister to Tbilisi during the crisis and strengthened ties with Ajaria after it. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive]. But Turkish officials were hardly ignoring foreign affairs between the November 2 vote in Georgia and Shevardnadze’s November 23 departure.

Erdogan was on a diplomatic mission in northern Cyprus on November 15 ahead of the upcoming elections there. Many observers see the legitimacy of those elections, scheduled for December 14, as pivotal to European Union (EU) members’ willingness to consider Turkey’s accession. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul was in Sweden lobbying for EU membership the same day, when suicide bombers killed 15 people and wounded 300 at Istanbul synagogues. More deaths came five days later in an attack on an Istanbul bank. Some argue that Turkey should not obsess over the European Union or linger in mourning while the chance to shape events in Georgia remains strong. Georgia, on this view, is the weak link in a potential axis from Azerbaijan to Turkey’s Mediterranean shores.

Columnist Tuncay Ozkan, in the center-right daily Aksam, has argued this case in recent weeks. "Turkey has established very close ties with Georgia right after its independence," he wrote on December 1. "Ankara sent Georgia tons of wheat and opened a credit worth $50 million during its early days when Georgia did not even receive world attention… Turkey and Georgia have started jointly using an air base 30 kilometers out of Tbilisi." But Okzan concluded from the government’s conduct that "Turkey is now unable to even understand the developments [in the Caucasus], let alone to manipulate them." Other commentators, notably Sami Kohen of the daily Milliyet, have noted that worsening conditions in Iraq could fuse with instability in Georgia, threatening Turkey’s hopes for regional stability. This pessimistic take ignores the possibility that Turkey’s almost silent stance during the ongoing Georgian crisis may have been to some degree deliberate.

Turkish foreign policy, since Kemal Ataturk became its first secular president, has always followed a strict anti-interventionist path. Except with explosive situations like Iraq or disputed territories like Cyprus, Ankara generally avoids alienating any potential new leader who might seek warm ties. It did not weigh in on the elections in Azerbaijan, which also lack popular or international legitimacy. Even though Mikhail Saakashvili is overwhelmingly favored to win Georgia’s presidential elections on January 4, restive breakaway republics could undermine that election. Erdogan’s government might have held its cards in Georgia even without other international distractions, at least until that country’s leadership becomes clear. Turkey cannot help but relate closely to Georgia. The countries have strong trade ties, and many expect the intensified trade and military covenants to strengthen them both. Turkish officers have pursued the idea of training Georgian soldiers, and both national armies have worked on a joint military program to protect pipelines. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkey is also known to have influence over Georgia’s breakaway provinces of Ajaria and Abkhazia, since many ethnic Caucasians live in Turkey and have relatives throughout the region. Turkish officials coordinated negotiations with Abkhaz and Ajarian officials at an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe summit in Istanbul in 1999. In 2000, then-Foreign Minister Hikmet Cetin reportedly tried to breach differences between Georgia and Ajaria. True to Turkish tradition, these talks sought to establish Turkey as a likable neighbor in every party’s view.

With an eye on European Union commissioners in Brussels, Turkey may simply be acting more guarded about similar initiatives. On December 5, Gul met with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts and pledged: "Turkey is ready to contribute [to resolving problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan] and undertake the role of catalyst."[For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. To some critics, this sort of talk gratifies European Union idealists at the expense of building strong regional ties with a receptive Georgia. Mehdi Nuzhet Cetinbas, president of Istanbul’s Caucasus Foundation, called Turkey’s recent policy towards Georgia "inadequate" and "wrong" and said Ankara should have promoted democratic reforms long before the November crisis. "The new leadership in Georgia has rather nationalistic discourse and may initiate harsh measures against secessionist republics," Cetinbas told EurasiaNet. "Russia could have an edge in Georgia and in the Caucasus in general, as the leadership of Ajaria." Georgian leadership seems receptive to warmer ties with Turkey. Saakashvili and Burjanadze have offered strong criticism of Russia and stressed their support for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive].

The friendship, assuming Saakashvili takes office soon, appears to be Ankara’s to join. However, to create beneficial ties, Turkey’s leadership will have to express and embrace a broader strategic vision of its role in the Caucasus than they have managed so far.


6. - Milliyet - "Why is this election so important?"

by Sami Kohen / 11 December 2003

“No election in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has ever gotten so much attention. This time not only Turkey, but also the entire world is putting importance on the votes of 140,000 voters, because unlike previous polls, this is like a referendum which will have international ripples. Is ‘change’ or ‘continuing the status quo’ wanted to solve the Cyprus issue? For the first time Turkish Cypriots are divided on this.

The parties and voters have two camps, those favoring Denktas or not and those seeking a solution or not. Those favoring change hope to reach a quick solution under UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s plan and to become a European Union member with the Greek Cypriot administration. Those who prefer the ‘status quo’ reject Annan’s plan and want the TRNC to continue without the EU. The Turkish Cypriots’ choice will constitute a turning point for the future, including Turkey’s relations with the EU and other countries. In addition, this decision will influence subsequent policies of the EU and the UN. That’s why the entire world is so concerned about these elections.

Actually saying those ‘favoring a solution’ and those ‘opposing a solution’ is misleading because nobody’s openly rejecting efforts for solution. Those favoring Denktas also want a solution but they’ve put forth certain requirements. Those opposing Denktas want to sit at the table under Annan’s plan and continue negotiations on this basis to find a solution before next May.

Otherwise, the Greek Cypriot administration will become an EU member and then it will be hard for Turkey to get a date for talks from the EU, so the Turkish side will enter very troubled waters. Those favoring Denktas want a solution very different from Annan’s plan. However, they also feel the need for the Turkish side to take the initiative again and bring the other side to the table. It seems whoever wins the elections, Turkish diplomacy will be eager for a solution. Diplomats in Ankara and the Denktas administration in Nicosia are looking into the situation seriously.

Will there be a proposal for changes to Annan’s plan or else an alternative plan? Ankara prefers the former. Probably the government will be insistent on this. EU officials say that Annan’s plan is still valid and that an alternative plan would have no place. As one observer in Brussels said, if a solution is desired, changes to Annan’s plan should be proposed. Otherwise the Turkish side’s suggestions will have no chance. Our officials should take this into consideration.”