22 January 2002

1. "Turkey promises no human rights violations", this year in Turkey "there will be no instances of torture, no misbehaving of policemen and no violations of human rights" according to Murat Mercan the Vice-Chairman and founder of Turkey’s ruling AKP.

2. "Turkey, a key ally, on fence over supporting Iraq war", the Bush administration, working to persuade the world that military pressure plus UN inspections is the best way to deal with Saddam Hussein, did not expect its old NATO ally, Turkey, to be its toughest sell.

3. "U.S. keeps wary eye on Turks", some anti-war protests count more than others. A demonstration against U.S. policy on Iraq in Istanbul Sunday attracted only 250 people, a far cry from the thousands of protesters who mobilized in cities around the world over the weekend. But despite the small numbers, this demonstration should have been more of a worry to Washington than the others.

4. "For free, democratic Iraq, Kurds will fight alongside US-led coalition", the Kurds of northern Iraq know their forces cannot withstand the armor of Baghdad, which violently suppressed them in 1991, but say they will join in any US-led war for a "free and democratic" Iraq.

5. "Erdogan acquitted in fraud case", ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday was acquitted on charges of irregularities regarding his earnings and assets.

6. "Denktash wants referendum", Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash said yesterday that the laws of his self-styled statelet required that a referendum precede the signing of a possible reunification deal with the Greek Cypriots, the local media reported.

1. - EU OBSERVER - "Turkey promises no human rights violations":

ANKARA / 21 January 2002 / written by Andrew Beatty

This year in Turkey "there will be no instances of torture, no misbehaving of policemen and no violations of human rights" according to Murat Mercan the Vice-Chairman and founder of Turkey’s ruling AKP.

Underlining the recently elected AKP's determination to fulfil the criteria for joining the European Union, Mr Mercan said his party would move towards a "more democratic, more free and more stable Turkey."

This was not the only reason for the promise, "This is not for the sake of the EU but because this country deserves it," said the Vice-Chairman.

Problems remain

However, acknowledging the problems faced by the government in controlling the behaviour of the police and army, Mr Mercan added that "if there is, then our prosecutors we will go after them."

This move comes after Turkey, last year, introduced a series of reforms including the abolition of the death penalty during peace time and increased freedoms for the use of non-Turkish languages.

The Commission - in their regular report on Turkey’s progress EU membership– concluded last October that Turkey had made "some progress" toward fulfilling the human rights criteria for membership.

At the Copenhagen summit in December, EU leaders agreed to assess Turkey’s membership bid on the basis of the Commission's report for 2004.

Hoping for progress

"Our intention is to fulfil the Copenhagen Criteria even before 2004… we hope for a better report in 2003" Mr Mercan told journalists, "We may ask for our position to be re-evaluated at the December summit."

Commission officials have welcomed this move and said that they would be continually monitoring the situation.

Despite "considerable progress" the Commission is still looking at the use of minority languages in Turkey, application of European Court of Justice rulings, the question of Cyprus, the role of the Army on Turkey's powerful National Security Council and the inconsistent application of law across the country.

Human rights groups such as Amnesty International have repeatedly reported instances of torture, rape, extrajudicial executions and 'disappearances' within Turkey.

2. - Christian Sience Monitor - "Turkey, a key ally, on fence over supporting Iraq war":

ANKARA / 21 January 2003 / By Ilene R. Prusher

The Bush administration, working to persuade the world that military pressure plus UN inspections is the best way to deal with Saddam Hussein, did not expect its old NATO ally, Turkey, to be its toughest sell.

In fact, Turkey is working equally hard to convince its neighbors to resist the apparent US march toward war.

Turkey's two-month-old government is treading two paths: Along one, it shows that it values its relationship with the US by allowing 150 US military officials to inspect Turkish air bases and ports, assessing their potential use. Along the other, Ankara has stepped up its diplomatic drive to avert war.

After visiting several Arab countries and Iran last week, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul plans to host a regional summit here this week to discuss how to avoid a US-led war against Iraq.

"We are telling the Iraqis to cooperate with the UN to the greatest extent," says Dr. Seyfi Tashan, the director of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute. "We are telling our neighbors, 'This is the last chance: Get together, and put some pressure on Iraq so that a war may be avoided.' "

Turkey has not yet replied to the US request to allow the use of its territory for a ground invasion of northern Iraq - which the Pentagon sees as the key to a shorter, cleaner war.

Yesterday, Gen. Richard Meyers, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with officials here in Turkey. Local media reported that they discussed reducing the American proposal for basing 80,000 troops to 15,000 or 20,000.

Ankara says that it won't decide on the US request until after Jan. 27th, the date when Hans Blix, the chief United Nations weapons inspector, is due to deliver his latest report.

After that, the Turkish parliament would have to approve the stationing of ground troops in Turkey, likely to be a difficult feat in a country where more than 80 percent of those polled oppose a war against neighboring Iraq.

"The site survey has started, and this should not be ignored," says Ahmet Davutoglu, a policy adviser to the prime minister. "There are two channels. One is technical preparation and contingency planning," with the US military, he says. The other is a diplomatic channel, one Ankara thinks Washington should appreciate, given the number of Turks opposed to war. "There is a new government in Turkey and [the US] needs to take that sentiment into consideration."

Anxious in Washington

Washington has begun to let off puffs of steam about Turkey's indecision, suggesting that time is running out for Ankara to decide which road it is on. The US is worried about the problems a delayed operation could entail - March's sandstorms, April's searing heat, and the escalating cost of maintaining so many troops in the region. But Turkey says it's in no rush to use force.

"Our national timetable may not exactly coincide with the US timetable," says Yusuf Buluc, the spokesman for the Turkish foreign ministry. "We want to send a message that we have turned every stone to resolve this peacefully."

US officials say that at some point the Bush administration might decide to forge ahead with or without Turkey. "I am not sure that Washington's timetable is subject to Turkey's timetable," says a Western diplomat in Ankara. "President Bush said he would lead a coalition of the willing. He didn't say ... Turkey must be among them."

Part of US strategy is to build a ring of military deployments around Hussein, a psychological battle that some hope could break the Iraqi dictator's resolve before a war starts. Turkey's reluctance to participate in that buildup, in Washington's eyes, weakens the strategy. The best way to resolve this peacefully, says the diplomat, "is to show that the international community is prepared for the consequences of not solving it peacefully."

But Turks worry that a war could further weaken their ailing economy, by raising oil prices and damaging tourism. It could hurt Turkey's image with other Muslim countries and open it to a retaliatory missile attack. And the government, led by a party with Islamist roots, represents many voters who see an attack on a neighboring Islamic country as unacceptable.

But perhaps the most compelling concern cited by Turks is the fear of what will come after Hussein. They worry that toppling him could lead to an attempt by Kurds to seize oil fields and declare an independent Iraqi Kurdistan, and the ascent of a fundamentalist Shiite Islamic state backed by Iran, or just plain chaos. "Turkey has to be more informed about the day after," says a senior Turkish official. "You can build a model," as the policymakers in Washington's have for the future of a democratic Iraq, "but it could be a fragile model that would collapse in a short period of time."

In short, Turks tend to think that Washington's plans for a post-Hussein Iraq are a bit naive. "There is a romanticism about a democratic Iraq," says the Ankara bureau chief of one of Turkey's prominent newspapers. "Just because America says it will go that way, it's not sure it will happen."

US charges complacency

For their part, US officials see Turkey's stance as frustratingly complacent. The more readily Turkey cooperates in "regime change," as Washington views it, the more say Turkey can have in ensuring that a post-Hussein Iraq doesn't hurt its national interests.

There are some 75,000 Iraqi troops stationed along the border with the autonomous Kurdish province. The US would like to station its troops in Turkey's southeast, but since this is primarily Kurdish which was an active conflict zone just four years ago, Turks consider it a "sensitive area." Washington cannot see any other area which would be as useful for launching a ground assault and forcing Hussein to divide his resources.

There are also economic considerations. The US is offering an aid package to Turkey to help compensate its potential losses of up to $14 billion, although there is no official offer yet. Turkish officials say they don't want to link economic aid to their decision.

"It's not a horse-trading game," says a foreign ministry official. "Of course the costs are quite high, but that's not part of the equation in making up our minds." But there is an underlying knowledge here that much is at stake.

The US is one of the largest supporters of Turkey's International Monetary Fund loan bailout package, and could scale back military aid or Turkey's favored-trade status if Turkey says no - or gives a de facto veto by sitting on the fence for too long.

3. - Toronto Star - "U.S. keeps wary eye on Turks":

21 January 2003 / by Stephen Handelman

Some anti-war protests count more than others. A demonstration against U.S. policy on Iraq in Istanbul Sunday attracted only 250 people, a far cry from the thousands of protesters who mobilized in cities around the world over the weekend. But despite the small numbers, this demonstration should have been more of a worry to Washington than the others.

Turkey is America's second most important strategic ally in the Middle East, after Israel. The U.S. needs Turkey as a base for military operations in northern Iraq, which would guarantee that Saddam Hussein could not be assured a safe haven to regroup his army if he takes a battering from U.S. forces pushing up from the south.

A decisive northern "front" would also mean fewer casualties and a shorter war.

Hoping to safeguard that front, a U.S. military team led by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Richard Myers, arrived in Istanbul for negotiations last weekend — the direct trigger for the protests.

Turkey sets strict laws on mass gatherings, so allowing the anti-war demo was a powerful signal of the government's growing unease. (Several thousand also gathered in Ankara, the capital, chanting "No to American aggression.")

The U.S. will undoubtedly get Turkish agreement to upgrade airbases that have already been exploited by allied forces to monitor the U.N. "no-fly zone" in northern Iraq, and to deploy as many as 15,000 U.S. soldiers on Turkish soil — a reduction from Washington's original request of 80,000.

But a reluctant and gun-shy Turkey is not good news for American war planners. And it makes post-war scenarios even grimmer.

You couldn't find a worse case of strategic mistiming. The Turks have just elected a moderate and untested Islamic government which is sandwiched between rising popular demand for closer alignment with its Arab Muslim neighbours and the pressures of maintaining its all-important partnership with the U.S.

On top of that, the government needs to fulfil pledges made to its business community to bring Turkey at last into the European Union. That means showing Europe it's willing to make key human rights reforms and achieve a settlement on Cyprus. But too pronounced a pro-American stance could alienate Europeans who are wary of Washington's Iraq adventure.

The policy traps ahead for Turkey over the next few months would try even a veteran leader, let alone the untested Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, a genial, bulky man with little experience in foreign affairs.

Gul isn't doing badly for all that. He is sponsoring a meeting among foreign ministers of the region this week to come up with a formula that would allow Saddam Hussein to escape into exile and avoid war, and he sent a blunt letter to the Iraqi leader.

"Maybe it was undiplomatic," Gul said later. "I told him, okay, here's the last chance. Don't play games."

Saddam has cold-shouldered the idea. But the real point of this exercise is different: the countries in the neighbourhood, including Iran, Jordan and Syria, want a declaration saying that whatever happens, Iraq's territorial boundaries must not change.

The meeting will provide a cover for the region's leaders against the volatile anti-war sentiment in their countries. But keeping Iraq intact after Saddam is just as important.

Saddam's defeat could empower the Kurds in northern Iraq to move from autonomy to independence. That would be anathema to many of the region's governments — but particularly to Ankara, which has been waging a decades-long struggle against independence-minded Kurds within its own borders.

A new Kurdish state that controls the Kirkuk oil fields in northern Iraq could represent financial disaster as well, since Turkey is at the other end of the Kirkuk pipeline.

Moreover, a report last week from the Council on Foreign Relations in New York predicted that an Iraq war could send as many as 1.5 million refugees streaming across the borders of Turkey and Iran.

Any of those scenarios could sink the new Turkish government, and boost the Turkish generals who are already hunting for ways to undermine the Islamists. Civil turmoil in Turkey would ruin its European hopes.

Washington is not unaware of the high stakes involved for its ally. It is promising huge aid (which embittered Turks say they never got after the 1991 Gulf War).

Washington also says an Iraq without Saddam will be safer for Turkey and everyone else in the neighbourhood. But wars have a way of making predictions obsolete.

4. - AFP - "For free, democratic Iraq, Kurds will fight alongside US-led coalition":

ARBIL / 22 January 2003 / by Laurent Lozano

The Kurds of northern Iraq know their forces cannot withstand the armor of Baghdad, which violently suppressed them in 1991, but say they will join in any US-led war for a "free and democratic" Iraq.

"The important thing for us is to know the plans for a post-Saddam Hussein" regime, said Bruska Shaways, chief of the armed wing of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), one of the two main parties sharing control of northern Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War. "If it involves creating a free, democratic, parliamentary and federal Iraq," as agreed by a US-backed Iraqi opposition conference in London in mid-December, then the Kurds will take part in the war.

"It will not be tens of thousands, but 200,000 peshmergas (resistance fighters) who will fight," said Shaways, who has worn military fatigues for the past 14 years and spent six months in a Baghdad jail from 1976-1977, where he says he was tortured. "If it involves a simple coup d'etat, however, this will be done without us," said the militia leader, who added that as for military plans "the Americans have not made contact with us."

Officially, the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the other main Kurdish party in Iraq, have not said whether they plan to take part in any US-led assault. This is due to the uncertainties involved, and memories of the period following the Gulf War when the West let them down while Saddam's forces pounded them with chemical and biological weapons, killing thousands of civilians.

"I was initially at the head of 50 peshmergas and we later numbered 5,000" said Shaways, remembering his entry into the northern town of Kirkuk, which Kurds consider their future capital. "The United States let us down, they allowed the Iraqi planes and tanks to intervene because the international media was saying the Kurds and Shiites (in southern Iraq) were pro-Iranian."

One senior PUK figure, Adnan al-Mufti, believes the war will take place soon. "All depends on the final word of Saddam Hussein, but he cannot accept everything," said Mufti, referring to the stringent terms of cooperation the United Nations imposed on the Baghdad regime with Resolution 1441 in November. "So the war will take place, late February I think."

A KDP official figure agreed: "Do you seriously think the Americans would deploy so much forces in the region to leave them inactive until September?", he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. For Shaways, the "period until March 15 is critical" -- if operations have not begun by then, the war could be delayed because that is when the hot weather begins to set in. The guarantees received by the Kurds are key, he said, explaining that altogether the KDP and PUK could mobilize some 95,000 men, "some heavy weapons, a dozen tanks or armored vehicles," and some artillery; all seized from Iraqi forces in 1991.

For most Kurds, a war would be painful but necessary to finish with the dictatorship of the Baath party, which they accuse of killing half a million Kurds, gassing and flattening their villages, and denying their non-Arab identity. "We are helpless against a chemical or biological attack ... not the smallest gas mask while we've been told that in Israel even the dogs are protected," said Mufti. Ibrahim Tashed Taher, head of a checkpoint on the demarcation line with Baghdad's territory, is afraid of shelling of the town of Chamchamal, sending thousands of people fleeing along mined road.

Shaways is more confident, saying that with a US- and British-led assault "the Iraqi army will dissolve in 24 hours." "It is an effective army against its own people. But in the first phase US warplanes will control the air, and immobilize Iraqi warplanes and tanks," he said. He added that "only a few will remain loyal to Saddam. Seventy percent of troops are Shiite" Muslims, who also rebelled against Saddam in 1991. Already, Kurdish officials say, Iraqi troops are begging at houses for food and civilian clothing in which to flee.

5. - Turkish Daily News - "Erdogan acquitted in fraud case":

ANKARA / 22 January 2002

Ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday was acquitted on charges of irregularities regarding his earnings and assets.

The Ankara Court of General Jurisdiction Judge Ibrahim Kozan said there were no reliable or sufficient evidence against Erdogan.

It was claimed that Erdogan was involved in irregularities while he was serving as the Istanbul Mayor.

In the indictment, it was stated that Erdogan declared his assets twice, first when he was the Mayor and then in 2001, but there was a huge difference between these two declarations.

Public Prosecutor Ali Ozdemir said Erdogan has the right to earn money.

Meanwhile, popular leader of AK Party will face another trial today at the Constitutional Court.

The top court will debate the demand of preventing Erdogan from using the powers of being the chairman of his party.

Earlier, Court of Appeals Chief Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu asked the top court to urge Erdogan to step down as leader of AK Party. He also filed with the Constitutional Court to shut down the ruling AK Party on grounds that the party didn't completely obey the decision of the top court.

Turkey's top court had ordered the AK Party leader to step down as a founding member and gave six-months for Erdogan to quit.

On Oct. 17, Erdogan stepped down as founding member of his party but remained its chairman.

It could take the Constitutional Court up to a year to reach a verdict.

AK Party was founded last year by lawmakers who belonged to the Virtue Party (FP) which was banned by the top court on charges of being the center of Islamist movements.

However, the new party has sought to distance itself from its Islamic past and emphasizes social welfare for the poor.

Erdogan was excluded from last year's election because of a political ban stemming from a 1998 conviction for inciting religious hatred. Parliament has since changed the constitution to lift his ban, opening the way for him to stand for Parliament.

He is expected to take over the job of prime minister from his close ally Abdullah Gul soon after the Siirt by-election, where he is almost certain to win one of three seats on offer.

Erdogan, suspected by Turkey's secular establishment of secretly nursing an Islamic agenda, has been treated as the country's de facto leader during trips to European Union countries and the United States. AK Party rejects the Islamist label and has made EU membership one of its top priorities.

6. - AFP - "Denktash wants referendum":

NICOSIA / 22 January 2003

Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash said yesterday that the laws of his self-styled statelet required that a referendum precede the signing of a possible reunification deal with the Greek Cypriots, the local media reported.

“This is a legal obligation. We will bring this to the attention of (UN envoy Alvaro) de Soto today so he knows about it and is not faced with a surprise,” Denktash told the Turkish-Cypriot TAK agency.

Such a referendum would constitute a new obstacle to UN mediation efforts aimed at hammering out a speedy settlement to Cyprus’s 28-year division. The UN has called for a referendum on a peace deal, but after it is signed by the Cypriot leaders, hopefully by the end of February.

Denktash has recently faced unprecedented demonstrations by Turkish Cypriots protesting his hardline stance against the UN plan to reunify the Mediterranean island.

Denktash and Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides resumed intense talks on the UN plan last week.

The plan calls for Cyprus’s reunification in a Swiss-style federation of two equal component states, with a central government speaking with one voice in the European Union and other international bodies.

The UN is pressing the parties to reach a deal by the end of February to ensure that a united Cyprus signs an accession treaty with the European Union in April.

The UN timetable envisages that the parties will sign a deal by February 28 and that it will be put to simultaneous referendums, in the north and south of the island, on March 30.

But Denktash said the laws of the Turkish-occupied north required that agreements which “bring limitations to the [statelet’s] sovereignty and international existence” should be put to referendum before they are signed and ratified.