27
January 2003
2. "Harsh words ahead of talks", Turkey and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash exchanged harsh words on Saturday over the peace process for long-divided Cyprus, sparking new doubts over the traditional solidarity between the two sides.
3. "CYPRUS: Myth of `Turkish Cyprus' collapses", tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots in recent weeks have laid to rest the question of whether the so-called “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” represents their aspirations or is an outside imposition by the military ruling clique in neighbouring Turkey.
4. "Turkey Desperate to Prevent War But Wants to be on 'Right' Side", Turkey, which neighbors Iraq but is traditionally allied with the United States, faces its biggest foreign policy dilemma in years, as the standoff between Washington and Baghdad moves into a crucial stage.
5. "KADEK: News aim at provocation", KADEK Presidential Council stated that news about “USA-KADEK Alliance” aimed at speculation and provocation entirely, trying to draw forces in the region into a anti-Kurdish alliance.
6. "IMF warns of risks to Turkish economy", the International Monetary Fund, worried by fiscal slippage in Turkey's economic programme, warned at the weekend that US compensation in the event of an attack on Iraq may be insufficient to rescue the country from any renewed financial difficulties.
1.
- AFP - "No obstacle to Erdogan running in March vote: justice
minister":
ANKARA / January 26, 2003
The head of Turkey's ruling party, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, faces no
legal obstacle to stand in a March 9 election re-run in a tiny southeastern
province, Justice Minister Cemil Cicek said Sunday.
Erdogan, who was legally barred from running in the November 3 general
elections due to a conviction for Islamist sedition, is eager to win
a
parliamentary seat and then become prime minister.
"It will become clear in the next few days whether he will be
a candidate or not, but there is no constitutional or other legal
obstacle for him," Cicek said in an interview with CNN-Turk television.
A conviction for "inciting religious hatred" has been thwarting
Erdogan's aspirations ever since he returned to politics after serving
four months in jail in 1999.
Erdogan's Islamist past -- even though he has disavowed it -- has
sparked fears among the establishment that his Justice and Development
Party (AKP) could undermine the Muslim country's strictly secular
system.
But the AKP, which controls two thirds of the parliament following
a sweeping victory in the November polls, has pushed through legal
amendments paving the way for its leader to run in future elections.
The charismatic politician has been expected to stand in an election
re-run in the southeastern province of Siirt, where the November results
were cancelled due to voting irregularities.
Cicek's remarks contradicted a recent warning by Turkey's chief prosecutor,
who said Erdogan cannot run in the Siirt vote because it is not a
new election but a re-run in which parties should go with the same
candidates they fielded in November.
Despite doubts lingering over his political future, Erdogan has behaved
as a prime-minister-in-waiting, embarking on visits to Europe, the
United States and China where he has been given red-carpet treatment.
Turkish law requires prime ministers to be members of parliament.
2.
- AFP - "Harsh words ahead of talks":
NICOSIA / January 26, 2003
Turkey and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash exchanged harsh words
on Saturday over the peace process for long-divided Cyprus, sparking
new doubts over the traditional solidarity between the two sides.
Since Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power last
November, its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticized Denktash
for his hardline stance on a UN settlement plan for Cyprus.
On Saturday, Denktash, who has threatened to resign rather than sign
the UN plan, took a swipe at Erdogan's criticisms.
"If Turkey is ready to accept the plan ... it should say it openly.
Then somebody who will sign this plan will be found, he will sign
it and the job will be finished."
Both Denktash and his Greek Cypriot counterpart Glafcos Clerides have
demanded modifications to some terms of the blueprint.
Ankara has officially lent support to Denktash's position, but Erdogan,
who does not hold any government post, has nevertheless continued
to criticize him.
"I have come to an uncertain position as a negotiator and I cannot
accept this. I cannot go on like this," Denktash said, quoted
by the Turkish Cypriot TAK agency.
"Contradictory statements are harmful. They serve nothing else
than putting me in a difficult situation in front of my people and
the Greek Cypriots," he added.
Erdogan's right-hand man, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, quickly dismissed
Denktash's outburst.
"We are at a crucial turning point... It is not time for such
statements," Gul told Turkey's NTV channel.
"We do not say 'let's give Cyprus away and get rid of it.' We
have not surrendered this national cause, but we do insist that a
solution is found," Gul said.
If the negotiations produce a solution that will guarantee Turkish
Cypriot interests "we must say yes to it," he added.
The latest exchange between Denktash and Ankara came ahead of a visit
to the self-styled Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus by Turkish
Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis.
The minister is scheduled to arrive here late Sunday for talks with
Denktash and other officials the following day.
Denktash said he would ask Yakis to clarify Ankara's position on the
peace negotiations, TAK reported.
The Turkish Cypriot leader has also come under strong pressure from
his own people, who have recently held massive pro-reunification demonstrations.
About 300 people held another one Saturday in a square where they
installed a digital clock that started a countdown towards February
28, the UN deadline for a settlement.
Opponents of the UN plan organized a rival demonstration near the
port city of Famagusta to denounce proposed territorial adjustments
that would lead to the displacement of several thousand Turkish Cypriots.
"Yes to negotiations, no to surrender," read one of the
pancards raised by the pro-Denktash protestors.
The United Nations is pressing for a deal by February 28, a deadline
set to ensure that a united Cyprus signs an accession agreement with
the European Union in April to join the bloc in 2004.
The EU says it will admit only the internationally-recognized Greek
Cypriot south if the island is not reunified in time.
The Cyprus conflict is seen as a major stumbling block for Turkey's
own EU membership aspirations.
The island has been divided since 1974 when Turkey seized its northern
third in response to an Athens-engineered coup in Nicosia seeking
to unite Cyprus with Greece.
3. - Green Left Weekly - "CYPRUS: Myth of `Turkish Cyprus' collapses":
January 27, 2003
BY MICHAEL KARADJIS
Tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots in recent weeks have laid to rest the question of whether the so-called “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” represents their aspirations or is an outside imposition by the military ruling clique in neighbouring Turkey.
According to different reports, between 40,000 and 70,000 Turkish Cypriots took to the streets of the “Turkish” side of the Cypriot capital, Nicosia, on January 15, to demand that their leader, Rauf Denktash, sign the United Nations-sponsored Cyprus peace treaty or resign. The demonstration was twice as large as a similar one 10 days earlier.
There are no clear figures for the size of the local Turkish-Cypriot population, but estimates do not exceed 90,000 people. The total ethnic Turkish population in the divided island is double that, the rest being non-Cypriot colonists that Turkey has brought in from the mainland. The votes of these colonists have kept Denktash's right-wing chauvinist regime in power for three decades.
These figures mean that the majority of the original Turkish-Cypriot population took part in the demonstrations. There have been few times or places in history when popular mobilisations have directly involved such a large proportion of a population.
Most revealingly, the demonstrators' slogans included “We don't want to live in a prison”, “This country is ours”, “We don't want to be slaves, we are the new generation” and, for the first time, some banners denounced the Turkish armed forces as an “army of occupation”.
Turkish troops are supposedly there to “protect the Turkish Cypriots”. However, the Turkish Cypriots' actions suggest they no longer want such “protection”. Indeed, the troops' presence may tell us why there have been few demonstrations to date: with 35,000 troops among a local population of 90,000, it represents far and away the largest occupation force per head of population in the world.
A number of trade unions, including teachers' and civil servants'
unions, went on strike to join the rally. It was also joined by university
students and staff. Shops closed for several hours. Police with riot
shields lined the Berlin Wall-type border that divides Nicosia to
prevent people from trying to cross to the enforced “Greek”
side, indicating that the authorities feared the local Turkish Cypriots
may attempt to destroy this emblem of apartheid.
Apartheid
Cyprus has been forcibly divided since 1974, when the Turkish army invaded the island in response to a military coup carried out by right-wing, chauvinist Greek Cypriots. The coup was organised by the military dictatorship ruling Greece at the time, which aimed to annex the island. Turkey claimed to be defending the Turkish Cypriots from Greek-chauvinist forces. However, the Cypriot junta was overthrown within six days and the next day the dictatorship in Athens itself collapsed. But instead of withdrawing, Turkey occupied 37% of Cyprus and drove 200,000 Greek Cypriots from their homes.
As 60,000 Turkish Cypriots had fled towards the Turkish troops during the coup, the internationally recognised Cypriot government became a de facto Greek-Cypriot state. In 1983, Denktash declared the occupied section of Cyprus to be an independent “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, but this “state” has only been recognised by Turkey.
A new UN plan aims to overcome this partition, calling for two component states joined within a united Cypriot federation. As the “Turkish Republic” currently occupies far greater territory than the Turkish percentage of the population, the Turkish component state would be reduced to some 28% of the island to allow the return of a significant number of Greek-Cypriot refugees. The two communities would be constitutionally equal.
Both component states would be allowed to limit the number of members of the other community within their entity. This measure was requested by the Turkish minority for fear of being swamped by the far larger numbers of Greek Cypriots, who account for some 700,000 people.
No plan is perfect, but after three decades of total separation, carrying out this plan may be the only chance of getting a better one in future. This requires that the two communities interact to eliminate the irrational fears left over from the distant past.
The timing of the plan is aimed at facilitating the entry of a united
Cyprus into the European Union (EU). If the plan fails, the EU will
accept only the Greek-Cypriot part, leading to a major crisis between
the EU and Turkey, which also aspires to EU membership.
Under pressure
Regardless of the great powers' motives — which have done nothing to solve the Cyprus problem for decades because they had no incentive — the Turkish Cypriots clearly think that the UN plan for a united Cyprus and EU entry are in their interests. They see it as a means to begin improving their economic position, which has been hampered by the Turkish occupation. For example, per capita income in the Turkish-held north of the island is less than a quarter that in the south.
The Denktash regime is also under pressure from the new “post-Islamist” Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey. On January 5, AKP chairperson Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave open support to Turkish-Cypriot demonstrators and denounced the entire policy framework of every Turkish government to date, declaring that “nothing positive can be achieved with the kind of policy that has been followed until now”.
However, the powerful Turkish military remains opposed to the reunification of Cyprus. Retired rear admiral Kadir Sagdic on January 7 said Turkey might face a “security threat” if it relinquishes control over northern Cyprus.
Denktash is still refusing to budge, stressing that “because at every gathering there are voices calling me to resign, I do not move”. This aristocratic attitude stems from his role as a colonial governor under British rule decades ago, followed by his consolidating power through the intervention of the Turkish military. Denktash brutally silenced all leftist or moderate opponents of his chauvinist plan of Taksim, or forced separation of mixed populations, to partition the island.
The myth of “protecting the Turkish Cypriots” did have
some legitimacy, however, due not only to the 1974 coup, but also
to a history of attacks by Greek-Cypriot right-wing forces on the
Turkish minority. The Greek chauvinists had their own plan —
Enosis, or union with Greece. Their actions preceded, gave rise to
and then competed with and mirrored those of Denktash.
Greek chauvinism
Therefore, those on the Greek-Cypriot anti-nationalist left have long emphasised a rejection of Greek chauvinism in dealing with the issue. The frustrations caused by the long-term continuation of the occupation have led in the last decade to a re-growth of nationalism. When I was last in Cyprus, in 1997, a resurgence of Greek-nationalist paraphernalia and a rising number of Greek flags at Greek-Cypriot demonstrations were obvious. Fortunately, there was one breath of fresh air: UN-organised meetings and concerts involving people from both communities in the “dead zone” separating the two parts of Nicosia.
Polls show the UN plan has more overwhelming support among Turkish Cypriots than among Greek Cypriots. An influential minority among the Greeks denounces the plan — the right-wing Greek-Cypriot newspaper Simerini, for example, carried a front-page headline condemning the “nightmare settlement”. Such poison must be completely rejected. The Greek flags — flags of another country just as surely as Turkish flags and Turkish troops belong to another country — should be safely stashed away and only brought out for cultural festivals.
On the other hand, in trying to emphasise our opposition to our “own” nationalism, some left-wing Greek Cypriots bent the stick too far. We quite rightly always wanted to appear “even-handed” and criticise nationalism on both sides, aware of the justified anxiety of many Turkish Cypriots.
However, it was difficult being “even-handed” when balance did not exist. Turkey has thousands of occupation troops in Cyprus; Greece does not. Turkey has brought in tens of thousands of colonists; Greece has not. Turkey controls the northern administration; Greece does not control the south. The north is called an ethnic “Turkish republic”, the equivalent of the “Jewish state” of Israel and the “Serb republic” of Bosnia, both based on similar levels of ethnic cleansing; the south is not called a “Greek state” and Turkish Cypriots were theoretically able to return.
Furthermore, now that the Turkish Cypriots have spoken, it is clear
that we were perhaps more concerned about their fears and anxieties
than they were. It has perhaps long been clear to them that the equivalent
of the reactionary chauvinist forces which still rule their side were
comprehensively defeated on the Greek side with the popular overthrow
of both Greek and Cypriot juntas in 1974. They do not so much need
our understanding as our unqualified support, without any taint of
Greek triumphalism, in their struggle against the occupation of their
country.
4. - Voice of America - "Turkey Desperate to Prevent War But Wants to be on 'Right' Side":
Ankara / 26 Jan 2003
by Roger Wilkison
Turkey, which neighbors Iraq but is traditionally allied with the United States, faces its biggest foreign policy dilemma in years, as the standoff between Washington and Baghdad moves into a crucial stage. Turkey's two-month-old government is under pressure from the United States to provide support for any U.S. military operation against Iraq, at a time when opinion polls show, more than 80 percent of Turks staunchly oppose a war.
Turkish officials say their government has every reason to fear a war. They say a military confrontation with Iraq will shake their country's frail economy, and stir turmoil among the minority Kurds who live on both sides of the Turkish-Iraqi border.
But they also say the United States has been an important ally of Turkey for more than 50 years; and they know, Washington is determined to act, if Iraq cannot be convinced to disarm. And even though Turkey is desperate to prevent a war, it is eager to be on the right side, if one breaks out.
So what is Turkey going to do? Does it allow the United States to use its territory to mount an attack on Iraq, or does it continue to look for a diplomatic solution?
Murat Yetkin, a political columnist for the newspaper Radikal, said Turkey has a two-track approach. "One is to try to exhaust all diplomatic possibilities to avoid a clash to end the crisis, without the need of a military option; and, on the other hand, carrying out negotiations and carrying out planning with the United States armed forces to be prepared when the moment comes," he said.
Abdullah Gul
Prime Minister Abdullah Gul has stressed the diplomatic approach,
traveling to several Arab countries and Iran, and hosting a foreign
ministers' meeting last week in Istanbul that called on Iraqi leader
Saddam Hussein to fully cooperate with United Nations weapons inspectors.
At the same time, the government has authorized the Turkish military to begin negotiations with their American counterparts for use of Turkish facilities.
Ilnur Cevik, the editor of the Turkish Daily News, an English-language newspaper, said the reason for this is clear, given the American military buildup in the region. "Turkey is becoming resigned to the fact that the United States is going to attack Iraq. Turkey feels that it has done everything. Turkey has gone to all these Arab countries and Iran, and brought them together at a summit in Istanbul, [and] made declarations but, at the end of the day, the American troops are on the way," he said.
The deal being negotiated would allow the United States to use Turkish airbases and ports, and would also let American ground troops use Turkey as a staging base for a northern offensive against Iraq.
But Dogu Ergil, a political science professor at Ankara University, said the Turks asked Washington to scale back its plans because of concern for Turkish public opinion. "The Turkish army, although putting down some reservations and limiting U.S. demands and requests from Turkey - like, for example, reducing five airbases to three, limiting the use of seaports to two, or limiting the stationing of 80,000 troops to 30,000; Turkey will consent, because it knows it has no other choice," he said.
Turkish officials say the number of U.S. troops that would be allowed to pass through Turkey may even be as few as 10,000.
In keeping with the government's peace rhetoric, Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis has suggested that allowing U.S. troops to use Turkish soil puts additional military pressure on Saddam Hussein to cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors. However, the deal, as columnist Murat Yetkin notes, has not yet been struck, and still faces some obstacles.
"The ongoing negotiations between the militaries of both countries are about to come to a point of conclusion. That includes the permission to transfer troops via Turkey into northern Iraq [and] also deploying some Turkish troops into Iraq as well. But all of those are up to, first, government, and then parliamentary approval," Mr. Yetkin said.
Prime Minister Gul told U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell Saturday in Davos, Switzerland, that Turkish lawmakers must be convinced that the world supports the use of force against Iraq, and that most want the U.N. Security Council to have the final word.
The Turkish government keeps insisting that it wants to see a second Security Council resolution, before backing military action, a position Turkish Daily News editor Ilnur Cevik said is being reconsidered.
"That's the official position at the moment. But privately, Turkish officials are also saying what do we do if the war starts? We just can't say, 'ah, but you didn't get a resolution.' It's a de-facto situation. What do we do? We plunge in," Mr. Cevik said. Even though Mr. Gul's Justice and Development Party has a two-thirds majority in Parliament, the party has Islamist roots, and there have been hints that it is deeply divided over taking part in a war against another Islamic country.
So how will Mr. Gul and his aides sell the idea that Turkey should join in the war to his party? Ankara University professor Dogu Ergil said it will not be too difficult. "First of all, they will say, 'well, we couldn't curb American belligerence.' Secondly, we have to have a say in the shaping of post-Saddam Iraq. Otherwise, it will be more threatening than the war itself. Post-war chaos is more threatening to Turkey than the status quo. So, people will buy it," he said.
Turkish officials say privately that their country will be hurt whether
or not it takes part in the war, but that the price it will pay for
being a bystander is greater than the one it will pay as a participant.
5. - Kurdish Observer - "KADEK: News aim at provocation":
KADEK Presidential Council stated that news about “USA-KADEK Alliance” aimed at speculation and provocation entirely, trying to draw forces in the region into a anti-Kurdish alliance.
MHA/FRANKFURT / 26 January 2003
KADEK stated that at a time at which US made intense preparation to attack Iraq the Turkish state and media increased their provocative attempts depending on speculative news. KADEK Presidential Council emphasized that forces in the region were tried to be drawn to a anti-Kurdish alliance by saying “There is an alliance between US and KADEK”.
The statement said that Davut Bagistani who was shown as the source
of the news was a suspicious-looking person, asking for Kurds and
their friends to be cautious against such provocation. The statement
continued with following words: “On the other hand Workers’
Party claimed that US had given an aid of 125 million dollars to KADEK”.
Such claims are made up of lies. Neither such an alliance nor the
aid in question exist. The most important issue for Turkey is not
to consider Kurds as the new statue of the Middle East are determined
after the operation. And while it makes impossible efforts with Iran,
Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to avoid the war, at the same
time it works on neutralizing the Kurds. USA, PDK and PUK use such
an imaginary alliance as a threat to Turkey to open its territory
to US. Some circles aim to ‘to fish in muddy waters’ by
bringing such a provocation into the agenda. They do not bother, for
once, to ask KADEK sources. At a time at which our President is imposed
a heavy isolation, there are assaults against guerrilla forces, bearing
in mind that such provocation will increase, KADEK will increase its
cautiousness as well. KADEK will increase its efforts for peace, rendering
such provocation ineffective.”
6. - The Financial Times - "IMF warns of risks to Turkish economy":
ANKARA / 27 January 2003
by Martin Wolf and Brian Groom in Davos and Leyla Boulton in Ankara
The International Monetary Fund, worried by fiscal slippage in Turkey's economic programme, warned at the weekend that US compensation in the event of an attack on Iraq may be insufficient to rescue the country from any renewed financial difficulties.
A senior IMF official, interviewed at the World Economic Forum in Davos, said that a primary fiscal surplus [of revenues over expenditure before interest payments] of 6.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continued to be necessary if Turkey, aided by a $16bn (£9.8bn) loan from the IMF, was to have a good chance of securing debt sustainability.
Depending on the budget the new government is due to finalise this week, the primary surplus, which fell short at about 4.5 per cent last year, may also be below the required level this year.
The IMF-backed programme was going very well until the elections were called last year, said the official. But analysts say that the previous government, a coalition of three parties, loosened the purse-strings in a failed attempt to win the November 3 election.
The ruling Justice and Development party (AKP), elected by a landslide, was then lulled into complacency by an initially exuberant reaction from financial markets. The government may also harbour exaggerated expectations of a US bail-out in the event of a war on Iraq.
The US is understood to have offered Turkey a choice of $3bn in grants and $10bn in loan guarantees or $2bn in grants and $20bn in loan guarantees.
But the IMF official warned that Turkey would not be helped by further borrowing and said that it was unclear whether US grants would be big enough to meet its eventual needs.
Some political analysts believe that the government has also been under some pressure to pursue populist economic policies to ensure the election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the previously banned AKP leader, who said at the weekend that he hoped to run for parliament in a March 9 by-election.
IMF officials were on Sunday night due to arrive in Ankara to start technical consultati ons with the government. But the Fund is unlikely to release its next loan tranche of $1.6bn before further reforms.
Apart from a tough budget for 2003, a final IMF condition requires the resolution of a dispute surrounding Pamukbank, a failed bank seized by the banking regulator in June.
Pamukbank was on Friday returned to its former owner, pending a court
decision on whether the watchdog's action was justified.