3 January 2003

1. "In the Aftermath of Turkey's elections: A Period of Uncertainty", at the present moment, it would seem that Turkey’s relations with the EU have completely eclipsed whatever ambitions Ankara might still have in post-Soviet Eurasia.

2. "Turkish diplomacy comes under pressure to revise its premises, as challenges grow in 2002", Though there have been those claiming we have to be satisfied because the "glass is partly filled," they soon came to admit the majority view that the Copenhagen summit decision meant nothing more than the EU saying "go now and do not come back before 2004". The United States has worked hard to advance its strategic partner Turkey's bid for EU membership and its efforts to that effect have grown more intensified ahead of the Copenhagen summit. What it has wanted in return has been one crucial thing: Turkish cooperation in the upcoming operation on Iraq.

3. "Turkish By-Election Eyed by Erdogan May Be Delayed", a Turkish by-election pencilled in for February 9 that could open the way for ruling party leader Tayyip Erdogan to become prime minister may not be held until March or April, the head of the election board said on Thursday.

4. "Turkish leader says country should modify Cyprus policy", the leader of Turkey's ruling party said his country should reconsider its long-standing hard-line policy on Cyprus, and he accused the Turkish Cypriot leader of ignoring public calls to reunite the divided island.

5. "Turkey urges Denktash to agree deal over Cyprus", Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's unofficial leader, has urged Rauf Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader, to heed his own people's wishes for a settlement that would enable them to join the European Union as part of a reunited island.

6. "Turkey presses ahead with EU-oriented democracy reforms", the Turkish parliament on Thursday passed a set of democracy reforms as part of efforts to bring the country into line with European Union norms.

1. - Eurasianet - "In the Aftermath of Turkey's elections: A Period of Uncertainty":

3 January 2003 / by Igor Torbakov*

At the present moment, it would seem that Turkey’s relations with the EU have completely eclipsed whatever ambitions Ankara might still have in post-Soviet Eurasia. In a recent interview with The Turkish Daily News, Cagri Erhan, a political scientist from Ankara University, said "there are three axes in Turkish foreign policy: relations with the EU, relations with the US and relations with Israel," thus having completely ignored relations with Russia and other post-Soviet states. Turkey’s relationship with the EU is given top priority.

Ankara pushed hard to obtain from Brussels – at the recent EU summit in Copenhagen – a precise date for the beginning of accession talks. The EU, whose members were split on the issue, offered a date of 2004, conditioned on Turkey’s implementation of key reforms. Now, it seems that Turkey (and the United States and Europe, for that matter) is entering a potentially turbulent period fraught with many uncertainties. As was mentioned in part I of this series, despite the current, seemingly stable, consensus on the issue of the country’s "European vocation," Turkey is a nation with a dual European/Asian identity. If Ankara encounters new obstacles and snubs "on the long and winding road to Europe," it might again experience an acute fit of inherent fear of being isolated and marginalized on the periphery of European system. This might well strengthen the "non-European" elements in the peculiar Turkish dichotomy and ultimately bring about changes in policy orientation.

This has happened in the past. For instance, in August-December 1994 then-Foreign Minister Mumtaz Soysal was stressing Third Worldism, nationalism and anti-Westernism in contrast to Turkey’s traditional Western-oriented policy. Another example of an attempt to refocus Turkey’s foreign policy is the efforts of then-Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan in 1996-1997. Although he eventually dropped rhetoric about Turkey spearheading a new Islamic NATO or Common Market, Erbakan persistently promoted the establishment of an economic grouping called the D-8 (the D stands for development). This body would consist of Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Initially it was even labeled the M-8 (the M stands for Muslim).

The Turkish military, the staunch guardians of the Republic’s secularism, took care of Erbakan in what was lately labeled the "post-modern coup" of 1997. However, in spring of 2002, a top Turkish commander, the National Security Council’s Secretary General Tuncer Kilinc, apparently frustrated with the discriminatory attitude of what he called a "Christian Club," suggested that stronger relations with Russia and Iran could be considered a viable alternative to the European Union membership.

In the November 3 parliamentary elections in Turkey a conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) with an Islamist origin won a landslide victory and secured almost two thirds of the seats in the Grand National Assembly. The strong showing at the polls has given the AKP a rare opportunity to form a stable one-party government. The party’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the AKP top officials didn’t waste time to confirm their pro-European choice and their eagerness to achieve Turkey’s membership in the EU.

It would be fair to suggest, however, that at least part of the AKP constituency does not share the European aspirations of the party’s leadership. It is yet unclear how the AKP administration will behave under pressure from its grass-roots in the event that their Europe-oriented policy is given a cold shoulder by the "arrogant Europeans." The first test has occurred just very recently. On November 8, Turkey’s bid to join the European Union was condemned by Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French president who has been charged with drawing up a new EU constitution. Mr. Giscard d’Estaing bluntly said that Turkey "is not a European country," and that its membership would represent "the end of the European Union." Never mind that the European Commission has swiftly disassociated itself from Giscard’s comments. The French politician was probably not too far from truth when he claimed that most EU members are privately against admitting Turkey but "they never say it to the Turks." Ali Tekin, Turkish parliamentary representative in Mr. Giscard d’Estaing’s convention, branded the former French president’s approach "Christian fundamentalism."

A number of Western analysts argue the EU is playing a potentially dangerous game treating Turkey in this way. They contend that Ankara is well aware that the EU is not Turkey’s only option. Given its strong Muslim population and the fact that it is geographically 90 percent Asian, the country could look east, rather than west, analysts add. One such analyst, Simon Allison, claims the EU might regret its current stance vis-à-vis Ankara. Referring to General Kilinc’s suggestion that Turkey should start looking for new allies, Allison says: "Just hypothetically, what kind of influence might a Turko-Russo-Iranian alliance have on the world? It could upset the status quo, with potential to become a counterbalance to the US. Warm water ports, vast resources, nuclear weapons, probably the support of the Arab world as well."

"Could we be looking at another Cold War?" asks Allison. Most commentators would agree that is the extreme and highly unlikely option. But it’s undeniable that the position of the West with regard to the war on terror and Iraq would become a lot more difficult without Turkish support and cooperation.

* Editor’s Note: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1988-1997; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC, 1995, and a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York, 2000. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey. This article is excerpted from a paper originally delivered at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia, November 20, 2002.

2. - Turkish Daily News - "Turkish diplomacy comes under pressure to revise its premises, as challenges grow in 2002":

* Though there have been those claiming we have to be satisfied because the "glass is partly filled," they soon came to admit the majority view that the Copenhagen summit decision meant nothing more than the EU saying "go now and do not come back before 2004"

* The United States has worked hard to advance its strategic partner Turkey's bid for EU membership and its efforts to that effect have grown more intensified ahead of the Copenhagen summit. What it has wanted in return has been one crucial thing: Turkish cooperation in the upcoming operation on Iraq

ANKARA / 3 January 2003 / by Fatma Demirelli

Struggling to handle mounting challenges arising first in the course of its ambitious bid to join the European Union and then in connection with the looming war in its southeastern neighbor Iraq, calls on the Turkish diplomacy to review its basic premises have been growing towards the end of 2002, following, in particular, the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

The bid to become an EU member was perhaps the most noteworthy event of 2002, at least until it was overshadowed by the war danger in Iraq. The desire on the part of almost the entire society was so powerful that the AK Party, which swept to power in the November 3 elections, appeared to be challenging firm and entrenched principles of the Turkish foreign policy whenever it deemed they are hampering the country's aspirations to join the 15-nation bloc.

Hence, the AK Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticized "those who hampered solution for 40 years in Cyprus," an issue that is linked by many to Turkey's EU drive, and signaled readiness to embrace a more flexible attitude. His Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis received flak from the establishment when he warned Turkey would be an occupier in a part of the EU territory, if a swift solution to the Cyprus issue is not found.

AK Party's attempts have fallen short of producing a concrete result, though they did spark a public debate that is still ongoing. A closer look at the main headlines of the Turkish diplomacy throughout 2002 is as follows:

EU ambitions: Put off for the moment

Optimism reigned high, and then low in 2002, in Turkey's ambitious bid to join the wealthy European block. A swath of reforms passed in August and the coming to power of AK Party with reformist projects had created an atmosphere full of hope, but the December summit of the Union's leaders dashed hopes to a large extent and forced Turkish leaders to focus on developments in other geographies of the world, at least for the time being.

The first rise in tension in Turkey-EU ties emerged when confidential e-mails of Karen Fogg, the EU Commission representative in Ankara, were leaked to the press by the Workers' Party (IP) in the first months of the year. IP argued that e-mails were evidence that Fogg was working against Turkey's interests through secret alliances with certain Turkish journalists. The controversy came to an end when Fogg left Turkey because her term in her had office expired.

A subsequent report approved in the European Parliament, which called on Turkey to recognize alleged genocide against Armenians, led anger to rise in Ankara, though the report had no binding quality.

Relations were soothed when the EU, under intense U.S. pressure, agreed to label Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Revolutionary People's Liberation Army/Front (DHKP/C) as terrorist organizations. In July, the PKK appealed the EU decision, demanding that the decision be annulled. Turkey, on the other hand, was not fully satisfied because the Union rejected to include Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK) in its terrorist organizations list.

In September 2002, the EU Commission disappointed Turkey by rejecting to offer any date for membership talks with Turkey, praising extensive constitutional reforms passed in August but saying there was still much to do in the implementation. But optimism renewed in Turkey after the coming to power of the AK Party and the tour of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to EU capitals, lobbying for a date for talks.

EU leaders seemed to be divided, with some looking satisfied with Erdogan's firm pledges for further reforms and the rest preferring to remain reticent. First clues about the final decision of the EU on whether Turkey should start talks in the near future or not came when German and French leaders Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac announced a joint offer for Turkey to start talks in 2005. Intense bargaining of Erdogan and Prime Minister Abdullah Gul in Copenhagen on the sidelines of EU leaders' summit there did not change much the result: The Dec. 12-13 summit ended with a conclusion to review Turkey's membership performance in December 2004 with a view to start talks "without delay."

Though there were those who claimed the "glass was partly filled," they soon came to admit the majority view that the summit decision meant nothing more than the EU saying "go now and do not come back before 2004." The union also disregarded Turkey's demand that Greek Cypriot membership be put on hold until a solution is found to Cyprus problem and approved accession of Greek Cyprus.

Despite the summit decision, however, improvement in Turkey's image in the EU public was noteworthy. Survey institution Eurostat has said Turkey has gained more prestige, especially after controversial statements of former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaign ahead of the Copenhagen summit that Turkey was not a part of Europe and its accession would spell the end of the EU. D'Estaign's remarks obviously backfired, as the EU leaders and political parties have swiftly moved to distance themselves from the former president's argument which many thought smelled racism.

One surprise development, which largely went unnoticed, was the resolution of a deadlock between Turkey and the EU over a proposed European defense force. Turkey lifted its veto on the Union's access to NATO assets soon after the Copenhagen summit after getting guarantees that Greek Cyprus would not become a part of the force.

Ties with U.S. dominated by Iraq, Cyprus, EU

The United States has worked hard to advance its strategic partner's bid for EU membership throughout 2002 and its efforts to that effect have grown more intensified after the countdown for the Copenhagen summit started, as President George W. Bush called EU leaders lobbying for a prompt date for Turkey days before the summit. The U.S. administration also announced full support for a solution plan drafted by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Though the U.N. deadline for a solution to Cyprus issue by the Copenhagen summit has now passed, the United States has expressed readiness to back future efforts for solution, saying a deal could still be reached by February 28, 2003.

What it wanted in return was one crucial thing: Turkish cooperation in the upcoming operation on Iraq.

In 2002, there was much intense diplomatic traffic between Turkey and the United States for discussion of these three topics and, in addition, economic ties. The first high-level meeting took place in January in Washington, when then Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit paid a visit to Washington and met President George W. Bush. This visit was followed by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney's brief visit to Ankara in March to discuss Iraq. In November, Chief of Staff Hilmi Ozkok flew to Washington upon an invitation from his counterpart Richard Myers. The last high-profile meeting between the two countries' leaders was on Dec. 9-10, when AK Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan met top U.S. leaders, including the president, in White House. The 26-hour talks concentrated on Iraq.

It was during Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's visit to Turkey when the United States conveyed its concrete demands to Turkey for a cooperation in Iraq and said it was ready to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to modernize air bases in Turkey. Visits continued through December and the last visitors became U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Marc Grossman and Deputy Secretary of Treasury John Taylor, who arrived in Ankara to discuss ways to buffer losses that Turkish economy was likely incur because of an operation on the neighboring Iraq.

Turkish officials have yet to decide on what role to play in a U.S.-led operation on Iraq but the United States has expressed satisfaction with the outcome of ongoing talks, whose content has never been made public.

Cooperation in anti-terror drive and ISAF

In line with its commitment to the United States' anti-terror drive in the aftermath of September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, Turkey has continued to be a major partner of the United States in this regard in 2002 and contributed to an international peacekeeping force deployed in Afghanistan's capital Kabul. Though unwilling, Turkey also accepted to take over the command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), deployed in Kabul, for six months. Turkey is expecting to hand over the duty to Germany and the Netherlands in February.

Relations with Iraq as the war looms

Turkey's efforts to boost trade with its southeastern neighbor Iraq and revitalize its gains from this lucrative market have been hampered by the looming U.S. operation on this country on the grounds that it has weapons of mass destruction.

Fearful of impacts of a war in Iraq on its own fragile economy, Turkish leaders have expressed objection to it in all occasions throughout the year. Beginning from the early months of 2002, then Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has stated, until he left the office in November, that the war would cause damages to the Turkish economy and might pave the way for an independent Kurdish state in the northern Iraq, which Turkish leaders have said would be a "casus belli," a reason to launch war.

In an attempt to prevent a war, Ecevit sent a letter to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, asking him to cooperate with the U.N. weapons inspectors. In the same month, Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri discussed ways with Turkish leaders to develop bilateral relations. In a visit to Ankara in the autumn, Iraqi vice president met Turkish leaders as part of a tour to drum up support against a possible operation on his country.

As the U.S. operation appeared to be looming on the horizon, Iraqi Kurdish leaders holding de facto control of northern Iraq have also paid visits to Ankara in an attempt to ease Turkey's worries over establishment of a Kurdish state in the territory they control. Visits by Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) especially intensified after the two groups discussed a draft constitution for northern Iraq and held a regional assembly meeting in the autumn.

Hopes tied to February deadline in Cyprus

Following the failure of the so-called proximity talks, the Cypriot sides also held a series of rounds of direct talks starting from January. The most important phase in the course of the issue started in the autumn, when the U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan presented his plan to Cypriot sides as well as Turkey and Greece.

The sides however, failed to meet a December 12 deadline to reach a preliminary deal on the future of the island and the Greek Cypriot side joined the EU despite Turkey's argument that Cyprus cannot become a member of any international organization to which Turkey and Greece are already members.

The sides, however, have announced readiness for further talks to find a solution before February 28.

Greece, in many interpretations, was the winning side, as the EU upheld its arguments and granted membership to Greek Cyprus. Success of the Greek government, which was once criticized for its policy of rapprochement with Turkey, was also a victory against the opposition.

Throughout 2002, Greece has completely abandoned a policy of confrontation with Turkey and become an "advocate" of Turkey within the EU.

Tension with Russia, ceremony in BTC

The most important development in the Caucasus was perhaps a ceremony in September, marking the beginning of the construction in the ambitious Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project, which will transport Azeri oil to western markets through Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia met for the historic ceremony.

With Russia, relations first got tense following a raid on a Moscow theater. Russian officials accused Turkey after they allegedly found out that some of the Chechen militants launching the raid had called certain people in Turkey. Relations were later put back in track during a visit of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in December. Meeting Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed satisfaction with the level of ties with Turkey and the two countries have agreed to work to further develop the economic cooperation.

3. - Reuters - "Turkish By-Election Eyed by Erdogan May Be Delayed":

ANKARA / 2 January 2002

A Turkish by-election pencilled in for February 9 that could open the way for ruling party leader Tayyip Erdogan to become prime minister may not be held until March or April, the head of the election board said on Thursday.

State-run Anatolian news agency quoted Tufan Algan as saying that wintery weather in February could lead to a low turnout in the election which is a re-run of the November 3 poll in the province of Siirt. The original result was canceled because of voting irregularities.

"March or April would be more suitable," Algan said.

Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Erdogan was excluded from last year's election because of a political ban stemming from a 1998 conviction for inciting religious hatred. Parliament has since changed the constitution to lift his ban, opening the way for him to stand for parliament.

He is expected to take over the job of prime minister from his close ally Abdullah Gul soon after the Siirt by-election where he is almost certain to win one of three seats on offer.

Erdogan, suspected by Turkey's secular establishment of secretly nursing an Islamist agenda, has been treated as the country's de facto leader during trips to European Union countries and the United States. The AKP rejects the Islamist label and has made EU membership one of its top priorities.

Southeast Turkey where Siirt is located often suffers harsh winters with snow and rain.

4. - AP - "Turkish leader says country should modify Cyprus policy":

ANKARA / by James C. Helicke

The leader of Turkey's ruling party said his country should reconsider its long-standing hard-line policy on Cyprus, and he accused the Turkish Cypriot leader of ignoring public calls to reunite the divided island.

The call by Recep Tayyip Erdogan represents a radical shift for Turkish politicians, who have rarely expressed dissent from Turkey's seemingly unconditional support for Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash.

''I'm not in favor of the continuation of the policy that has been maintained in Cyprus over the past 30 to 40 years,'' Erdogan was quoted as saying late Wednesday.

The island has been divided since a 1974 Turkish invasion sparked by a coup in favor of union with Greece. Turkey maintains thousands of troops there and is the only country to recognize Denktash's breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Erdogan spoke as Denktash faces criticism from an increasing number of Turkish Cypriots, who accuse him of blocking an agreement with Greek Cypriots. Last week, some 30,000 demonstrators demanded that Denktash resign, in the largest pro-European Union rally ever held in northern Cyprus.

Erdogan said the rally was a warning. ''You can't push aside the views of the public,'' he said. ''A decision should be taken with the largest public participation and should be implemented.''

Although the statements are a sign of increasing pressure on Denktash, it is not clear how far Turkey is willing to go to press the Turkish Cypriot leader. Turkey's influential military is expected to maintain a harder line than Erdogan.

Murat Mercan, a vice president of Erdogan's party, said that Erdogan's statement should not necessarily be perceived as a shift in the government's position toward Cyprus.

''The chairman is not in the government, and the government has said it will support Mr. Denktash,'' Mercan said. ''We're encouraging Mr. Denktash to be more lenient, more open in negotiations.''

Erdogan is currently banned from participating in politics because of a criminal conviction, but still wields strong influence behind the scenes and is likely to become prime minister following by-elections next month.

''What Erdogan said indicates a change in attitudes in Turkey about Cyprus,'' said Huseyin Bagci, professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University. ''The position until now is that no solution was a solution. ... Public opinion is against Mr. Denktash. This is something new.''

Denktash is under increasing pressure to find a solution before Feb. 28, a date set in a United Nations-drafted plan to resolve the Cyprus problem.

The European Union has invited the island to join in 2004, regardless of whether the island is reunited. But Turkey is also eager to join the 15-nation bloc, and EU leaders say a solution will probably help Turkey's own chances.

Erdogan's remarks were welcomed by Greek Cypriots.

''We are witnessing the beginning of the post-Denktash era,'' said Cypriot Foreign Minister Yiannakis Cassoulides.

5. - The Financial Times - "Turkey urges Denktash to agree deal over Cyprus":

ANKARA - ATHENS / By Leyla Boulton and Kerin Hope

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's unofficial leader, has urged Rauf Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader, to heed his own people's wishes for a settlement that would enable them to join the European Union as part of a reunited island.

Mr Erdogan said a pro-settlement demonstration by 30,000 Turkish Cypriots last week - a huge turnout for a community totalling 200,000 people - was "not an ordinary or chance event".

"If 30,000 people demonstrate at the same time in northern Cyprus then it means something is going on in northern Cyprus," Mr Erdogan said. . "We have to think hard about this business, you can't just sideline what the people think."

Mr Erdogan's declaration that he was "not in favour of following the Cyprus policy that has been followed for 30 or 40 years" is a clear signal that he means to tackle a problem which, unsolved, would threaten Turkey's own bid to join the EU.

Previous leaders of Turkey, the only country to recognise and support the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, have considered the Cyprus problem solved by a 1974 invasion which led to the island's partitioning after an abortive coup attempt to merge the island with Greece.

Last week's demonstration, calling for Mr Denktash to quit, has strengthened the newly elected Justice and Development party vis a vis hardline opponents of a deal in Ankara who support Mr Denktash. Mr Erdogan, previously banned from high office, received a further boost to his authority on Tuesday when the Turkish president approved legislation enabling him to become prime minister after standing in a by-election.

"This business is not Mr Denktash's personal business. It's not Ahmet's or Mehmet's or Tayyip Erdogan's. It's the struggle of a nation for existence," Mr Erdogan said. This comment could be seen as having a double meaning: he understands Turkish Cypriots' desire for guarantees that they will not be overrun by the larger and richer Greek Cypriot community under a settlement proposed by the United Nations for a "common state" composed of two "component states". In the absence of a deal however, Turkish Cypriots are likely to leave the island in droves by taking out Cypriot passports enabling them to settle anywhere in the EU.

Mr Erdogan warned that the problem would become harder to solve if a solution did not emerge by February 28, a UN deadline coinciding with elections in the Greek Cypriot-controlled south, set to join the EU with or without a deal.

Glafcos Clerides, the 83-year-old Greek Cypriot president, said yesterday he was considering running for re-election next month, if the UN-sponsored talks were still on track. "It would be very unwise in the middle of the negotiations to walk out and give the matter to someone else," he told Reuters, the news agency.

Mr Clerides was due to step down after two terms as president. But with negotiations on the UN plan due to resume on January 13, he is seen as the only Greek Cypriot politician with the authority to persuade voters to accept concessions.

6. - Deutsche Welle - "Turkey presses ahead with EU-oriented democracy reforms":

3 January 2003

The Turkish parliament on Thursday passed a set of democracy reforms as part of efforts to bring the country into line with European Union norms.

The reforms make it easier to prosecute police officers accused of torture, extend the rights of detainees and suspects and ease restrictions on the press, civic groups and non-Muslim religious foundations. They also make it more difficult to ban political parties.

The EU says that Turkey is not yet ready to start accession talks and that EU leaders would evaluate its progress in December 2004 before making a decision on the issue. Turkey, a NATO member and an EU membership candidate since 1999,is the only nation among the 13 EU hopefuls that has not yet started accession talks.