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March 2003 1. "Kurds Ready Defenses For Arrival of Turks", Kurdish authorities are girding for a possible Turkish intervention in Iraq by deploying militiamen to key areas of northern Iraq and setting conditions for acceptance of any troops from Turkey in their region, Kurdish officials said today. 2. "The fine line Turkey walks", Democracy can be an awkward business. 3. "Denktas arrives for crucial Cyprus summit", while the Turkish Cypriot leader is expected to tell Ankara that firmer coordinations are needed between northern Cyprus and Ankara, Turkey is expected to soothe the worries of Denktas and reaffirm full support for his stance in Cyprus talks. 4. "EU warns Turkey on Cyprus", the European Union will wait for a solution to the Cyprus problem right up to April 16, the day the island and nine other countries will sign an accession treaty, the commissioner in charge of enlargement, Guenter Verheugen, said yesterday. He stressed that if a divided Cyprus joins this will jeopardize Turkeys own chances of accession. 5. "Turkish Gobernment considers next step after parliamentary rejection of US troop proposal", while a prominent Ankara columnist warns of a potential "earthquake" in Turkish-American relations, Turkeys leading politicians are standing behind the Parliaments March 1 refusal to host American bases for a possible assault on Iraq. 6. "Iran executes two Kurdish activists", Iran has executed two members of an outlawed leftist Kurdish rebel group, a justice official told AFP Tuesday on condition of anonymity. 7. "Turkey to Iraqi Kurds: We will protect our interests", Nobody should abuse our good will, be carried away by false courage. 8. "Turkey clears German political NGOs of espionage charges", a Turkish state security court on Tuesday acquitted all 15 defendants in a controversial trial of six German non-governmental organisations charged with espionage and undermining Turkish state security. 1. - Washington Post - "Kurds Ready Defenses For Arrival of Turks": SALAHUDDIN / 4 March 2003 / by Daniel Williams The Turkish parliament's rejection of a U.S. request to base troops on its territory, in a vote held Saturday in Ankara, has not eased concern that Turkish troops will seize the opportunity presented by a U.S.-led invasion to occupy northern Iraq, Kurdish leaders said. The Kurds fear that Turkey, by intervening militarily in northern Iraq, will seek to join the United States as an arbiter of the Kurds' political future. Kurds have established an autonomous zone in northern Iraq under the protection of U.S. and British warplanes and have ruled themselves for more than a decade. Thousands demonstrated today in the city of Irbil against the possible entrance of Turkish forces into their region. They carried signs with such slogans as "Down With Turkey, Up With the United States" and "No to Turkey." A few miles away, Kurdish officials ended talks about Turkey's role and on their future in the event President Saddam Hussein is removed by a U.S. attack. Kurdish militias have been dispatched to mountain outposts and along roads in the north, looking out for any moves by Turkey, said Hoshyar Zubari, a top official of the Kurdistan Democratic Party. The KDP is one of two militia-backed parties that run northern Iraq. The KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the other political-military force in the north, announced today that they have created joint security and political commands for the first time to face the threat from Turkey. "We have called up reservists and moved people around," Zubari said. "We are taking precautions." The Kurds have warned that a unilateral Turkish intervention would mean war. The KDP and PUK field militias numbering about 30,000 each, largely armed with assault rifles. The general population of about 3.5 million also is armed. Zubari and other Kurdish officials complained that the United States has kept them largely in the dark about plans for a Turkish intervention. The Kurds participated in a four-day conference of Iraqi opposition groups last week, during which Turkey was a main topic. President Bush's special envoy to the Iraqi opposition, Zalmay Khalilzad, also attended. The Kurds pressed for three-party talks among themselves, the United States and the Turks, but Turkey has not responded. The Kurds want a clear declaration from Turkey and the United States that Turkish forces would be part and parcel of a U.S.-led force to fight Hussein's army. In addition, they want the Turks under U.S. command. "If they are just coming in their own interests, to sit in northern Iraq, we will resist," Zubari said. "If they want to march on Baghdad, fine with us." Such conditions seem far from Turkish intentions. Turkish officials have said their troops will not fight Iraqi forces and intend, instead, to disarm the Kurds. All this appears to be a recipe for a Kurdish-Turkish conflict within the U.S. war with Iraq. Word of a proposed Turkish intervention has aroused passions among the Kurds. It is common to hear them say they prefer Hussein, despite his repeated assaults on them, to the Turks. 2. - The Globe and Mail - "The fine line Turkey
walks": U.S. leaders reasoned that if Turkey's new regime could fuse Islam with democracy and still stay in the Western camp, it would stand as an example to the whole Islamic world. Now, suddenly, that Turkish democracy has become a big problem. Saturday, when the AK government asked parliament to welcome U.S. troops to Turkey for an assault on northern Iraq, legislators refused. AK took 362 of the 550 seats in parliament last November, yet was able to muster just 264 votes Saturday. With 17 members absent, the government needed 267 votes to give it a majority of those present. But 250 voted against and 19 abstained, so it fell three votes short. Fully one-quarter of the government's own MPs voted no. That was a heavy blow for the AK government, which has never before held power and is led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who does not yet have a seat in parliament. Mr. Erdogan hopes to win a by-election this Sunday and earn the right to serve as prime minister. He must now decide whether to go back to parliament on the Iraq issue or admit defeat and leave things as they are. Either way, he faces dangers. If he returns to parliament and goes down to defeat again, his struggling new government will lose credibility. If he pushes the measure through parliament, his opponents will accuse him of knuckling under to U.S. pressure and defying the will of the Turkish people, nine out of 10 of whom oppose war with Iraq. The dangers for the country itself are just as great. Turning Washington down at its time of need would hurt relations with an old ally, strategic partner and the country's main financial backer. The United States has been a good friend to Turkey and just recently pushed hard for the country's early admission to the European Union. Turkey would lose the potential for close to $30-billion (U.S.) in grants and loans and jeopardize Washington's support in its critical negotiations with the International Monetary Fund over the country's debts. Monday's plunge in the stock market and the Turkish lira (12 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively) show how damaging that would be for a country that is already weathering its worst recession in half a century. Ankara also stands to lose influence over the future of Iraq. Under the proposed deal with Washington, Turkey would have been allowed to set up a buffer zone inside northern Iraq to stop Kurdish refugees from flooding across the border. By putting as many as 40,000 troops into Iraq, Turkey hoped to help prevent the Iraqi Kurds from fanning separatist passions among Turkey's own Kurdish minority. Washington had agreed to help by keeping the Iraqi Kurds in line, dissuading them from seeking an independent Kurdish nation state and disarming them if necessary. All that will go out the window unless parliament changes its mind. So Mr. Erdogan is in a tight spot. Like the leaders of other countries with antiwar public sentiment and ties to Washington, he must choose between doing what the people want and doing what he thinks is right for his country. The two do not always go together, which is what makes representative democracy so interesting. The United States is in a quandary, too. It badly wants Turkey as a staging ground, but its heavy-handed lobbying of Mr. Erdogan's government has already caused resentment and may have contributed to Saturday's parliamentary decision. If Washington bucks at accepting that decision, Turks will say it is frustrating their democratic will. That will not look good on a country whose President was promising just last week to back a democratic evolution in the Islamic world. 3. - Turkish Daily News - "Denktas arrives for crucial Cyprus summit": While the Turkish Cypriot leader is expected to tell Ankara that firmer coordinations are needed between northern Cyprus and Ankara, Turkey is expected to soothe the worries of Denktas and reaffirm full support for his stance in Cyprus talks 5 March 2003 / by Yusuf Kanli & Mete Belovacikli The Turkish Cypriot leader is expected to complain during the Ankara talks that statements delivered publicly and remarks made in closed-door meetings by some "decision makers" in Turkey were creating handicaps for him in the Cyprus talks process and ask the establishment for a firmer coordination mechanism. According to well-placed sources in Ankara, the Turkish Cypriot president was particularly irritated with the claims that before he travelled to Cyprus, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan discussed the "referendum proposal" with some senior Turks and received their approval while he was not informed of any such development in the briefing papers sent to northern Cyprus on Annan's Ankara contacts. The sources said the Turkish Cypriot leader was expected to stress that the Cyprus problem was not his own personal problem or the problem of the Turkish Cypriot people alone, but rather is a national issue that also concerns the interests of Turkey and therefore should be handled in full coordination between northern Cyprus and Turkey and with an "above domestic politics" consideration. However, diplomatic observers in Ankara said despite the request of Denktas, the disharmony in the Turkish capital between the "official policy making mechanism" and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) headquarters would most likely continue until after AK Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan assumed the Prime Ministry following his election to Parliament in the forthcoming March 9 Siirt elections. Well-placed sources said Denktas will be assured at the Cankaya meeting on Thursday of the continued full support of Turkey for his policies and will be told that only the government could speak on behalf of the country. Currently, there is disharmony between the government and the AK Party headquarters on a variety of issues, including the Cyprus problem. The AK Party headquarters, the views of which have been voiced by party leader Erdogan, is of the opinion that time is up for a Cyprus settlement, the ground covered in the talks should be considered sufficient enough and the problem should be solved immediately and without any conditions. The AK Party headquarters is basing its Cyprus strategies on two assumptions; the Cyprus problem has long been on the agenda of the country, and the demonstrations in northern Cyprus in favor of the U.N. plan and against Denktas demonstrate that the power of veteran Turkish Cypriot leader has eroded. While both Prime Minister Gul and Erdogan have been stressing that they wanted a settlement on the island, as he declared in Tuesday's AK Party parliamentary group, the former Istanbul mayor has been repeatedly declaring that "no settlement is not a settlement." Erdogan declared on Tuesday that the Cyprus talks should not end in failure. "Creating dead-end roads will not be in the interest of any country, and surely not in Turkey's interests. Such a move won't be a service to Turkey. We support a settlement on Cyprus. We are saying 'You cannot build a future while staying in the past.' The entire world knows well, should know well, that we won't accept fait accomplis that could cast a shadow on our national interests on Cyprus. But, this situation is not an obstacle for our will and determination for a settlement," he said. The AK Party leader wants a settlement on the island, particularly for the EU membership of the country. Guenter Verheugen, the EU Commissioner for enlargement, warned Turkey on Tuesday that the EU had a clear message to Turkey on the Cyprus settlement and that was if Cyprus settlement efforts failed, it would be very difficult to start accession talks with Turkey. Turkey, however, has been officially defending that Greek Cypriot EU accession would contravene the 1960 founding agreements of the Cyprus Republic and thus would lack legality. In government circles and in the corridors of Parliament there is talk that the AK Party leader first in talks with some American officials pledged, "We will solve the Cyprus problem", and later in talks with Annan during the U.N. secretary-general's trip to Ankara stressed, "The problem cannot be solved with the leaders, but with the people. Having referenda on the island will mean going directly to the peoples of the two sides and asking them whether they wanted a settlement. Such an approach will finish off the Cyprus problem." This and similar differences of approach between the ruling party's headquarters and the government are reportedly, among some senior cabinet members, leading to increased criticism of Erdogan and his "close aides." "Seeing Cyprus as a handicap for Turkey is not a line to be pursued by our party. Whatever has happened, for the past eight months Erdogan has been placing Cyprus on the table as a handicap. Our sensitivities are clear. We want to finish off the Cyprus problem in a fashion suggested by other organs of the state also and in a manner that would satisfy all parties, including Turkey and Greece. Mind you, we are not talking of a settlement, we are talking of finishing of this issue," circles close to Prime Minister Abdullah Gul commented. Another front in Ankara regarding Cyprus is constituted by the presidency, the military and the opposition Republican People's Party. This second front, while united in opposing the approach of the AK Party headquarters' approach to the Cyprus problem, have differences in details. The military no longer considers the Cyprus problem as an issue which should be considered with an approach considering only the interests of the Turkish Cypriot people. Some military analysts defend that whatever the strategy the AK Party headquarters could produce, as was laid down clearly at the latest Feb. 28 National Security Council (MGK) meeting, Turkey must be ready for new possible tensions in the entire southern front from Cyprus to Iraq, and must act with the awareness that every stone in that front is linked with each other. "We must know that the loss of one playing piece may bring about a total defeat," a leading source commented, stressing that a "retreat" from the Cyprus position could land Turkey in a position to "retreat" in all fronts, including the EU. The presidential palace, however, is reportedly defending the view that the Cyprus problem ought to be solved in a manner answering "common interests of both the Turkish Cypriot people and Turkey". Sources stressed that the presidential palace considers the struggle of Denktas not a product of his so-called intransigence, but rather based on his firm commitment to defend the rights of his people as well as Turkey's interests on the island. The opposition CHP, on the other hand, is reportedly approaching the Cyprus problem with a view of the Aegean problem with Greece. At a recent evaluation meeting at the CHP headquarters it was stressed that a flare-up in the Aegean would become unavoidable as the end of 2004 review date of Turkey comes closer. The party fears that at a time when Turkey's EU relations will gradually worsen, it would become easier for Greece to attain a result in the Aegean against Turkey. Under such conditions, Cyprus will become more important than ever, speakers of that meeting reportedly stressed. 4. - Kathimerini - "EU warns Turkey on Cyprus": 5 March 2003 The efforts to reach a settlement on the unification of Cyprus will continue right up to the signing of the treaty. But let me be clear on one point. With or without a settlement, Cyprus is expected to accede to the EU by May 1, 2004, Verheugen told a seminar with British parliamentarians in London. Our preference is clear. We hope that it will be a united Cyprus that we will welcome as member, Verheugen said. The UN proposal on the table would benefit all Cypriots. It would also bring peace and stability to Cyprus and the whole region, he added. Turkey is also well advised to reflect on the consequences of a non-settlement for its EU aspirations. I made this point very clear at my recent visit to Turkey. After May 1, 2004 they would face a situation where Turkey does not recognize one of the EUs member states. It is difficult to see how it would be possible to start accession negotiations under such circumstances, Verheugen said. Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, who has criticized UN Secretary-General Kofi Annans proposal for referendums by Greek and Turkish Cypriots on his plan, if their leaders do not agree to it, faced more problems yesterday. In a closed-door debate ahead of a vote on Friday, several members of the ruling center-right National Unity Party expressed support for a referendum later this month. This could swing the vote in opposition parties favor in the breakaway states self-styled parliament. 5. - EurasiaNet - "Turkish Gobernment considers next step after parliamentary rejection of US troop proposal": 3 March 2003 / by Mevlut Katik Nearly 100 members of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) either abstained or joined opposition deputies in voting against the basing rights. Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated the parliament may revisit the US troop question, but no decision has been made on the timing of another vote. Many political experts believe a re-vote will not take place until after a March 9 parliamentary by-election in which Erdogan is a candidate. Prime Minister Abdullah Gul sought to put the best spin possible on the parliamentary vote, characterizing it as "a result of democracy." On March 3, the prime minister sought to reassure markets, announcing fresh measures to promote Turkeys compliance with an IMF reform framework. Despite Guls efforts, Turkeys markets plunged on March 3. Political analysts, meanwhile, are concerned about possible consequences for Turkish-American relations. Sedat Ergin, Hurriyets Ankara bureau chief, warned that "unless reversed, it is inevitable that this decision will trigger a huge earthquake in Turkish-American relations." While Ergin chastised parliament for failing approve the US troop proposal, he also criticized the Bush administration, saying it had taken Turkey for granted and had overlooked the Turkish publics misgivings about a war. These miscalculations had already produced a "road accident," said the columnist; more permanent ruptures, he implied, may await. Publicly, US military planners say they are studying ways to revamp their Iraq invasion blueprint, which, prior to the March 1 rejection, had called for American troops to open a northern front in Iraq, launching their offensive from Turkish soil. But some Turkish observers fear the United States will retaliate against parliaments snub, if the US troop rejection is allowed to stand. Specifically, the analysts say a US aid package for Turkey, potentially worth upwards of $30 billion, will be shelved. "Economic, political and security agreements that have been negotiated between Turkey and the United States for months, and that are ready for signing, will not be signed," Ergin wrote. Other commentators hailed the vote, saying that launching military operations against Iraq would expose Turkey to disastrous consequences. "This decision has saved the country (and possibly the world) from one of the most serious [security] threats faced since the founding of the [Turkish] republic," wrote Fehmi Koru in the Yeni Safak newspaper. Erdogan voiced support for Turkeys democratic process, and expressed hope that the United States would accept parliaments ultimate decision, whatever the outcome. "We did everything a democratic administration has to do," he said. "Our party has opened a new page in Turkish political tradition by making intra-party democracy work, through not taking a [binding] party group decision [before the voting]." According to Erdogan, "the Turkish-American strategic partnership has not been formed in one day, and it is not possible ruin it in one day." Gul, for his part, warned Baghdad not to infer any support from the vote. He also stressed that the United States, by respecting the outcome of the vote, had supported Turkeys evolution as a democracy. The coming days will pose a sizable challenge for the AKPs leadership ability, some experts say. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The Iraq issue is forcing the relatively untested AKP government to attempt a delicate balancing act, involving divergent US and European Union interests, as well as the concerns of domestic constituents. Some experts believe the March 9 parliamentary by-election will be viewed in Turkey as a referendum on the AKPs governing ability. Whatever the outcome of the by-election, most analysts think the government has no choice but to resubmit the US troop proposal to parliament. "We think that the government will submit the motion to parliament [again] for both renewing confidence in itself and for Turkeys security," Guneri Civaoglu wrote in the Milliyet daily. In doing so, though, the AKP government will be taking a significant risk. "If the motion is rejected for a second time, there will be neither an economy, nor an AKP government left," an said an editorial in the Radikal daily. 6. - AFP - "Iran executes two Kurdish activists": TEHRAN / 4 March 2003 Mohammad Gholabi was executed on Sunday in Saghez in Iran's northwestern province of Kordestan, while his alleged collaborator Sasan Alekanan was executed on February 22 in the province's capital Sanandaj, said the official. "These two activists were members of the Komala and have taken part in terrorist acts to scare the local population and were in possession of arms and grenades," he said. In mid-January, the official IRNA news agency reported that an Iranian court had sentenced Alekanan and two other men to death for sheltering Komala activists who had entered Sanandaj to commit terrorist acts. Founded in1969 , the Komala, or Revolutionary Organization of Kurkish Toilers, is one of the two main Kurdish rebel groups active in the Islamic republic, alongside the rival Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI). After briefly allying themselves with the Islamic regime after the 1979 revolution, the rebels were ruthlessly crushed by the security forces, particlarly the Revolutionary Guards, in the1980 s. The Komala's main area of operation has long been the Sanandaj region, but most of the group's members are now based in neighbouring Iraq. Iran has expressed concern about renewed unrest among its six-million-strong Kurdish minority if any US-led invasion of neighbouring Iraq leads to greater autonomy for its Kurdish community. 7. - Daily Star (Lebanon)- "Turkey to Iraqi Kurds: We will protect our interests": Nobody should abuse our good will, be carried away by false courage ANKARA / 5 March 2003 / compiled by Daily Star staff The US should have a political attitude to prevent entities from emerging on their own and upsetting Turkey, Turkeys governing party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan told parliamentarians from his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Ankaras plans to strengthen military presence in the enclave which has been outside Baghdads control since the end of the Gulf War has angered Iraqi Kurds who took to the streets Monday in thousands to protest possible Turkish intervention. Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis described the demonstration in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil during which students burned Turkish flags as a provocation. Turkey fears Iraqs Kurds may use a war to declare independence, a move its says could re-kindle separatism among its own restive Kurdish community. Nobody should abuse Turkeys good will, be carried away by false courage, or test Turkeys sensitivities, Erdogan said. The Kurds fear that Turkey would take advantage of the war to crush their autonomy. Two Iraqi Kurdish factions control a de facto autonomous zone since the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War. The zone is protected from Saddams forces by both US and British air patrols. Turkey had been planning to send its troops into northern Iraq, in coordination with US forces, officially to stop a possible wave of refugees from swamping the border area. But the parliamentary rejection of American troop deployments has put a stopper on both Ankaras plans to intervene and Washingtons plans to invade. Meanwhile, an Iraqi opposition leader held talks with
Turkish officials Tuesday in an attempt to mend ties between Turks and
Iraqi Kurds. Ahmed Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress,
a London-based umbrella group, said that tensions over Turkeys
deployment plans could be resolved. 8. - AFP - "Turkey clears German political NGOs of espionage charges": ANKARA / 4 March 2003 The judge ruled that there was no evidence to show that the accused -- six Turks and nine Germans -- had committed any of the offences they were charged with. The ruling was met with relief in Berlin, where a foreign ministry spokesman said the accusations had been "absurd and unfounded." The prosecution had said that under the guidance of the German government, the organisations -- most of which are linked to German political parties -- had set up a "secret alliance" with local partners to undermine Turkey's political and social order and its unity. The defendants risked sentences of up to 15 years in prison. The trial had threatened to sour relations between Turkey and Germany at a time when Ankara is aspiring to boost its bid to join the European Union, with German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer calling last month for a "positive end" to the legal proceedings. The German embassy in Ankara also welcomed the verdict. "One thing has become very clear in this court case: the German foundations... have nothing, absolutely nothing to do with these absurd accusations," Ambassador Rudolf Schmidt said in a statement. One of the accused, Wulf Schoenbohm, representative of the conservative Konrad Adenauer Foundation, expressed hope after the hearing that the outcome of the trial would help "rectify (bilateral) relations again." "I hope everything related to the German foundations is over now and, of course, we will continue working here," he told reporters. In a written statement, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation said: "Our trust in the Turkish state of law has not been in vain." In the German capital Berlin foreign ministry spokesman Walter Lindner said he believed the activities of the NGOs "will now be able to continue unhindered and in close cooperation with our Turkish partners." Also accused were the social democrat Friedrich Ebert, liberal Friedrich Naumann, and the Heinrich Boell political foundations, as well as the Orient Institute, a scientific organisation based in Istanbul, and the German-based Food First action group. The prosecution had said in its indictment that the NGO members were involved in "activities in places where classic diplomacy has been unable to achieve results, and infiltrated every society and political domain." It accused the NGOs of working to promote a federative system for Turkey, which has a sizeable Kurdish minority and said they were "extremely unhappy with the Turkish army, which is the guarantor of Turkey's unity and its secular system." Hans Schumaher, who heads the Frederich Ebert Foundation office, had told AFP earlier that the accusations were part of a campaign carried out by "some quarters" in Turkey who oppose the country's EU membership and democracy reforms, which the foundations are promoting. Part of the indictment was based on a book by a controversial academic, Necip Hablemitoglu, who was gunned down in Ankara in December two months after the trial against the German groups opened. |