30 October 2003

1. "Turkey admits Iraq troops setback", Turkey's President Ahmad Necdet Sezer considers the controversial issue of deploying Turkish troops in neighbouring Iraq as "closed."

2. "Boycott mars Turkey celebrations", nearly all the politicians in Turkey's governing party have boycotted a presidential reception marking the republic's 80th anniversary in a row over Islamic-style headscarves.

3. "E.U. Report on Turkey: Implementation is Uneven and Slow", the Progress Report draft on Turkey, to be released by the European Union (EU) on Wednesday, November 5, 2003 states that despite the bold steps taken by government in the way of reforms, implementation is 'uneven and slow'. The 133-page and 29-caption report obtained by ZAMAN does not give Ankara any indication of when deliberations will start and it withholds final provisions till next year's report.

4. "IFJ voices concern over Turkish press bill", the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) said on Tuesday they had concerns over a new press law proposed by the Turkish government, claiming that the bill could impose restrictions on freedom of the press in Turkey.

5. "The U.S. will ask Turkey to leave south Kurdistan, says Turkish daily", the Turkish daily newspaper Yeni Safak reported today that the U.S. is preparing to tell Turkey to pull its forces out of south Kurdistan through the Iraqi Governing Council.

6. "10,000 Turkish Troops: Too Many and Not Enough", utimately, the proposed Turkish troop deployment is merely a band-aid on a gaping wound. It won't solve America's security problems in Iraq. Turkish involvement would only produce body bags being shipped back to Ankara, which might roil a Turkish population that is 70 percent opposed to sending troops into Iraq. The United States will create even more problems for itself -- in both Iraq and Turkey -- if it forces the Iraqis to accept Turkish troops.

1. - Aljazeera - "Turkey admits Iraq troops setback":

30 October 2003

Turkey's President Ahmad Necdet Sezer considers the controversial issue of deploying Turkish troops in neighbouring Iraq as "closed."

It was the first time a Turkish statesman had indicated a serious setback in the deployment plan, although the statement did not spell out whether the president thought troops would ultimately be sent or not.

"For me this question is closed," Sezer said on Wednesday at a reception marking the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish republic.

Back-pedalling

The United States originally asked Ankara for military help in Iraq, but then appeared to back-pedal on the idea in the face of opposition from Iraq's governing council.

"It is very difficult to reconcile the necessary conditions for deploying troops," Sezer was quoted as saying.

Turkey's parliament three weeks ago voted in favour of the deployment, despite widespread public opposition with about 80% of the public against dispatching soldiers.

On Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Abd Allah Gul accused the US of ineptly handling the issue.

"We are not going to undertake anything as long as there are hesitations... everything concerning us should be very clear, everybody should say yes," Gul said.

Faced with opposition from Iraq's interim leadership, the US has stopped pushing for the Turkish troops.

Many Turkish politicians, including ministers, have expressed relief at the prospect of shelving the deployment plan, which has also come under fire from fellow Muslim nations.

2. - BBC - "Boycott mars Turkey celebrations":

30 October 2003

Nearly all the politicians in Turkey's governing party have boycotted a presidential reception marking the republic's 80th anniversary in a row over Islamic-style headscarves.

Members of the Justice and Development Party, which has its origins in a banned Islamist movement, were angry at President Ahmet Necdet Sezer's refusal to invite any headscarf-wearing wives of senior officials, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to the event.

Headscarves - seen by the secular Turkish establishment as symbols of radical Islam - are banned in official ceremonies and in public buildings such as schools and courtrooms.

Mr Erdogan and his cabinet ministers did attend the reception, but the overwhelming majority of the party's 367 parliamentarians stayed away.

The official national day reception was held as part of celebrations to commemorate the founding of the Turkish republic by Mustafa Kemal, better known as Ataturk.

The BBC's Nick Thorpe in Istanbul says the anniversary is being taken as an opportunity by many to assess the progress that has been made towards resolving the deep internal contradictions which have riddled the past decades.

But our correspondent says the main debate within Turkey is over how the Justice and Development Party is squaring its pro-Islamic values with the fiercely secular state founded by Ataturk 80 years ago.
Several factors have combined to give this year's anniversary an added importance - the continuing violence in neighbouring Iraq, the election one year ago of a pro-Islamic government in Ankara and intensified efforts to join the European Union.

Troops delay

The Turkish Parliament has already agreed in principle to send troops to Iraq.

The arrangement appeared to satisfy both Turkey - which is keen to regain its former regional influence - and the United States which welcomed the idea of a moderate Muslim country sharing some of the security burden.

But the plan has been delayed and may even be shelved because of opposition by the Iraqi Governing Council. US officials have now asked the Turks to negotiate directly with the Iraqis.

The latest benchmark for relations with the European Union will become visible next week, when the EU publishes a report on Turkey's progress towards fulfilling the criteria for accession.

An EU decision on when such talks might begin is expected in December next year.

3. - Zaman - "E.U. Report on Turkey: Implementation is Uneven and Slow":

BRUSSELS / 30 October 2003 / by Selcuk Gultasli

The Progress Report draft on Turkey, to be released by the European Union (EU) on Wednesday, November 5, 2003 states that despite the bold steps taken by government in the way of reforms, implementation is 'uneven and slow'. The 133-page and 29-caption report obtained by ZAMAN does not give Ankara any indication of when deliberations will start and it withholds final provisions till next year's report.

The report will be taken up for the last time at the 20-member commission next Monday following discussions today. E.U. Commissioner for Enlargement Günther Verheugen will present the report on Wednesday. Even though the report praises the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) determination on reforms, it is critical of difficulties faced in the implementation phase.

It acknowledges that while radical reforms were put into effect, they lost considerable impact because of slow bureaucracy and restrictive procedures. However, unlike previous reports, it praises the ruling party and makes a distinction between bureaucracy and government.

The report emphasized that broadcasting and education in the mother

Language, and other ammended laws were implemented restrictively and that this hindered freedom of expression and association. It states that no concrete steps were taken to have broadcasts in languages other than Turkish. Turkish subtitles and translations in Turkish are still mandatory. The continued prohibition of the Kurdish letters q, w and x were also criticized. Also, because circular and by-laws were not issued in a timely manner, the reforms were not effectively communicated to the public.

Turkish courts and judges were criticized for not adhering to European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) clauses in their rulings.

Attention was also drawn to the fact that despite freedom of religion

reforms, religious minorities experienced problems in exercising their right to own property, form spiritual organizations and the religious instruction of Greek, Armenian, and Jewish groups, recognized as religious minorities by the Lausanne Agreement.

Regarding the Cyprus issue, it was pointed out that a solution should

proceed within the framework of the Annan Plan. The customs union formed with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was criticized. The report states that the E.U. does not approve of the Custom Union Agreement signed between Turkey and TRNC and that such an agreement had no validity in terms of international legitimacy. Furthermore, it is regarded as a violation of Turkey's customs union agreement signed with the E.U.

Military still involved in politics

Despite the new laws related to civilizing the National Security Council (MGK), the report points out that military intervention in politics continued, and that the MGK still influenced civilian administrators. It is stated that the said reforms would ostensibly make significant changes to the MGK's functions, and, as with member countries, reforms should be implemented fully in order to achieve civilian control over the MGK. The Turkish Parliament should audit the defense budget fully, the report stated.

4. - Turkish Daily News - "IFJ voices concern over Turkish press bill":

ANKARA / 30 October 2003

The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) said on Tuesday they had concerns over a new press law proposed by the Turkish government, claiming that the bill could impose restrictions on freedom of the press in Turkey.

The IFJ on Tuesday expressed its concerns over the bill in a letter to Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, requesting detailed information on the provisions of the law.

IFJ General Secretary Aidan White in the letter drew attention to exceptions in the proposed law dealing with public order and national security matters, adding that these could exert increased pressure on journalists and media organizations. White also warned that the new law could overshadow Turkey's recent reforms on human rights and press freedom, causing a loss of credibility for Turkey in its bid to join the European Union.

The IFJ said they found the provisions of the law enabling authorities to confiscate or temporarily order television or radio stations off the air a matter for grave concern, the Anatolia news agency reported.

The government maintains that the bill lifts restrictions on the circulation of publications and decreases the amount of fines imposed on press and media organizations for violations of the press law and adds that it would extend journalists' right to keep sources anonymous.

The IFJ has 450,000 members from 100 countries and is headquartered in Brussels.

Turkey recently passed a series of reforms to improve human rights and freedoms throughout the country in a bid to increase its chances of joining the EU.

5. - Kurdish Media - "The U.S. will ask Turkey to leave south Kurdistan, says Turkish daily":

LONDON / 29 October 2003 / by Welat Lezgin

The Turkish daily newspaper Yeni Safak reported today that the U.S. is preparing to tell Turkey to pull its forces out of south Kurdistan through the Iraqi Governing Council.

The daily also added that the U.S. is planning to strengthen the Governing Council and use Kurdish forces instead of foreign forces in Iraq.

According to the newspaper’s American sources, the U.S. is expected to, through the Governing Council, demand in the coming months from Turkey to pull out its forces from south Kurdistan, adding that despite Turkey not wanting to deal with the Council, the U.S. is expected to point to the Governing Council as the point of reference for any negotiations in Iraq.

The Yeni Safak report also pointed out that the U.S. had to drop the Turkish troop deployment option, the only foreign alternative it was left with after India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Portugal rejected the call for troops, following the strong resistance from the Kurds and the Iraqi Governing Council to the idea.

The report stated that without any hope the U.S. has started looking for other options as the security situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate and added that the involvement of Kurdish forces should be expected in the coming weeks.

The daily also wrote that within this frame it was expected that the Iraqi Governing Council will be strengthened and in regards to relations with Turkey, despite Turkey’s unwillingness, the U.S. is to point to the Council as the authority in Iraq and partner for negotiations.

The daily also quoted Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul saying on the issue that Turkey would continue its military presence in the area as long as the threat of terrorism continued.

6. - Cato Institute - "10,000 Turkish Troops: Too Many and Not Enough":

30 October 2003 / by Charles V. Peña *

The suicide car bomb outside the Turkish embassy in Baghdad is at least one sign that not everyone in Iraq would welcome Turkish troops in Iraq. Nonetheless, the United States continues to push for having Turkey send as many as 10,000 troops to Iraq to join the 130,000 U.S. soldiers and the more than 20,000 troops from 27 other countries already there. Although the Turkish parliament has approved sending troops to Iraq, it's still too early to call it a done deal because several details are still unresolved. Don't forget that Ankara strung the United States along and then at the eleventh hour backed out of a $20 billion deal to allow U.S. troops to use Turkish bases as staging areas during the Iraq war. But the latest terrorist attack underscores that it's not too early to question the overall wisdom of having 10,000 Turkish troops in Iraq -- and whether they will make any difference.

To begin, the Iraqi Governing Council -- the group of Iraqis, handpicked by the U.S., who are supposed to lead the country into a new era of democracy -- doesn't want Turkish troops in Iraq. But Paul Bremer -- America's civilian administrator -- can override the council, so what they think doesn't matter. Reportedly, Bremer has already blocked the release of a council statement denouncing the prospective Turkish deployment. Not exactly an action consistent with the democratic principles of free speech and hardly an example of respect for a fledgling democracy.

The Iraqi Governing Council has good reason to be leery of Turkish troops. Kurds in northern Iraq have a history of conflict with Turkey, whose Ottoman Empire once included Iraq. They are concerned that the presence of Turkish troops would stir up ethnic tensions between Kurds and the Turkmen minority. The Turks have been concerned about Kurdish autonomy in Iraq resulting in a de facto independent Kurdish homeland and rekindling calls for separatism among Turkey's 12 million Kurds. Both sides, then, have long-standing worries about a potential land grab, so deploying Turkish troops to Iraq only exacerbates the unease, which is probably a prescription for less -- rather than more -- stability and security in Iraq.

Further, if Turkey is seen to be increasing its influence in Iraq, it would be foolish to assume that Iraq's other neighbors -- especially Iran -- would sit idly by. Again, less stability and security for Iraq.

But even if these concerns can somehow be miraculously managed, the larger -- and perhaps more important -- question is whether 10,000 Turkish troops can help suppress the ongoing insurgency. The answer is "no." The history of the British experience in Northern Ireland (a close parallel to America's precarious position in Iraq) suggests a need for10 to 20 soldiers per 1,000 population for there to be any realistic hope of restoring security and stability. In Iraq, that translates to a force of 240,000 to 480,000 troops. Adding 10,000 Turkish troops would bring coalition force strength in Iraq to only 160,000. You do the math.

Back in Washington, the Bush administration continues to be in denial about troop requirements. With five of the Army's 10 active divisions already deployed to Iraq, getting to the low-end number of 240,000 troops is more than a bit of a stretch. Most countries are unwilling to contribute troops to a peacekeeping mission for a war they didn't support, and the U.S. military is burdened with obsolete security commitments around the world. And if assembling 240,000 troops is next to impossible, then 480,000-the equivalent of the total U.S. Army active force -- is out of the question.

That leaves American policy makers with only two options. The first is to continue the status quo, an act of tactical and political insanity. The second is to develop an exit strategy. That doesn't mean abandoning Iraq, but simply making good on the president's prewar promise: "The United States has no intention of determining the precise form of Iraq's new government. That choice belongs to the Iraqi people." And instead of insisting on democracy, which many Muslims equate with Western values and culture, Iraqi self-determination and self-rule should be the goal -- with the clear understanding that whatever form a new government in Baghdad takes, it must not support terrorists who would attack the United States.

Ultimately, the proposed Turkish troop deployment is merely a band-aid on a gaping wound. It won't solve America's security problems in Iraq. Turkish involvement would only produce body bags being shipped back to Ankara, which might roil a Turkish population that is 70 percent opposed to sending troops into Iraq. The United States will create even more problems for itself -- in both Iraq and Turkey -- if it forces the Iraqis to accept Turkish troops.

* Charles V. Peña, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute, is a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy.