12 September 2003

1. "Kurds Deal with US, Postpone War in Turkey", the Kurdish workers party (PKK) promised to begin a war with Turkey on September 1. When the Kurds announced the expiration of the date of the ultimatum to Ankara, it was expected that they would begin a full-scale military operation. However, the affair has for the time being ended with an announcement in Yerevan that calls on Kurdish organizations to protest against the worsening health of their leader, Abdullah Ocalan, who is being held in a Turkish prison.

2. "Turkey must help solve Cyprus problem to start EU negotiations", Greece backs Turkey's bid to start EU negotiations but it must help resolve Cyprus' decades-long division and radically improve Greco-Turkish relations, Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou said here Thursday.

3. "Supreme Court postpones DEHAP's election fraud hearing", lawyers for the small ethnic Kurdish DEHAP party, which is accused of forging electoral documents, had asked the court to put off the start of the hearing to allow it more time to prepare its case. "The request for extra time is considered appropriate, so I have postponed the trial until September 29," said a senior court official, Mustafa Aydin.

4. "Iraqi leader shies away from inviting Turkish troops", the head of Iraq's interim administration Ahmed Chalabi Thursday shied away from inviting Turkish troops to Iraq -- a gesture that would have helped bolster Ankara's bid to join the US-led multinational peace-keeping force there.

5. "Most Turks oppose sending army to Iraq", despite government claims that the economy is recovering, 58 percent of those polled don’t believe the economy has turned the corner.

6. "U.S., Turkey plan to sign $8.5 bln loan this month", the Bush administration plans to sign an $8.5 billion loan agreement with Turkey later this month during meetings in Dubai, people familiar with the plan said on Thursday.

1. - Eastern Daylight Time - "Kurds Deal with US, Postpone War in Turkey":

YEREVAN / 12 September 2003 / by Samvel Martirosyan / translated by Richard Sleder

The Kurdish workers party (PKK) promised to begin a war with Turkey on September 1. When the Kurds announced the expiration of the date of the ultimatum to Ankara, it was expected that they would begin a full-scale military operation. However, the affair has for the time being ended with an announcement in Yerevan that calls on Kurdish organizations to protest against the worsening health of their leader, Abdullah Ocalan, who is being held in a Turkish prison.

Do The Kurds Want War?

When a Rosbalt correspondent recently asked the PKK's official representative in Armenia, Ylmaz Shiar, if the Kurds were planning to begin military operations in Turkey in the near future, he said "no." However, he went on to say that the PKK has left the armistice, which in 1999 was announced by Ocalan. Nevertheless, at the same time, the PKK has decided to give Turkey a chance - three months to be exact. Moreover, if the health of Ocalan worsens or if he dies, then a war will begin immediately.

Turkey has the chance to announce an armistice, draw back troops from Kurdish territory and begin to meet the conditions which were announced by Ocalan two months ago. However, the first requirement is an immediate improvement in Ocalan's living conditions in prison. Shiar said that Ocalan is in critical condition because of Ankara's deliberate policies. The PKK requires from Turkey the immediate transfer of Ocalan to a place where an independent commission can monitor his health. The PKK warns that in the case of war the Kurds would not repeat old tactics. This time the war won't be in the mountains, but in Turkish cities. At the present time Kurds are conducting a hunger strike in Yerevan under the slogan 'Ocalan's health - the health of all the Kurdish people.' They also intend to conduct civil protests throughout the world. The PKK says Turkey for the time being will not meet with the Kurds.

180 Degree Turnaround

Why did the Kurds step back and 'leave the armistice' and begin to conduct self-tormenting hunger strikes? One way to find the answer is to compare the latest statements by Shiar with the statements he made to Rosbalt on April 4, 2003, at the height of the Iraq war. He said then that no matter which side wins the Iraq war - the US or Saddam - the suffering of the civilian population will not end because 'there is no difference between Saddam's regime and Bush's democracy.' They called the war operation in Iraq a 'dirty war.' But now their rhetoric has turned around 180 degrees. Shiar said that in spite of the negatives, the US conducted a brilliant operation in Iraq to unseat the despot, which the PKK welcomes. The PKK says that the US made no mistake in ousting Saddam. 'A new model of federal democratic government is being created in Iraq, which is to become a model for the entire Middle East region,' said Shiar.

He said that the worst thing that could happen now is the entry of Turkish troops in Iraq. 'Nobody wants this,' he said. According to Shiar the inclusion of Turkish forces in Iraq would lead to conflicts between Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis and would result in a repetition of the Vietnam war scenario for the US. 'The US will have to leave the chaos, which would come with Turkish forces, and all the accomplishments of democracy in Iraq would fall apart in an hour,' he said.

The PKK has high hopes in connection with US penetration into the Middle East because it believes that Washington's activity is in the best interests of all the people in the region even if the US is acting for its own political advantage. According to the PKK leadership if the Iraq model develops, it will be a catalyst for the transformation of the entire region.

The PKK leadership believes that the next step for the US is to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict because 'with the emergence of shared human values and international law in the region, nationalist and traditionalist foundations will simply disappear.'

'Ocalan has been calling for this since 1995, and the US is now finally conducting its politics in this spirit,' said Shiar. The PKK is confident that after the fall of Saddam's regime, a similar fate will come to regimes in Iran and Syria which 'are stuck in the early middle ages and do not want to catch up with the times.' Shiar said that it is possible that the fall of these regimes will occur without bloodshed, but not likely.

'There are moments in history which require a powerful solution to problems in the name of humanity. Such is the Kurdish battle with Turkey, and such is the Iraq war when the US could not overthrow Saddam by any other means but force,' he said.

Regrouping?

It is clear that the PKK has sharply changed its opinion in regard to the US - 'the breeding ground of aggressive capitalism and imperialism.' This may be due to the rapprochement of the party hierarchy with powerful circles in Washington. Turkish media have been reporting that the US is financing and supplying weapons to the PKK, which is still included on the US State Department's list of international terrorist organizations.

The PKK completely agrees with US politics directed at the weakening position of Ankara in the region. However, if earlier it was possible to talk about this only as a supposition, now it is being talked about openly by PKK representatives.

Shiar said that the US has finally seen the true face of Turkish diplomacy - 'deceitful and foul.' Washington does not now want Turkey to become a regional leader. 'Everyone is surprised that the PKK has a good relationship with the US and Europe, and this rapprochement troubles Russia. But Russia is guided by old and traditional thoughts and cannot understand that we are working together for the democratization of the entire Middle East region.'

Shiar said that the US has undertaken a great democratic movement in the Middle East and the primary criteria of its success is the Kurdish question: insofar as the Kurds receive their rights, Washington will be successful. In this way, now we can suggest that the PKK has taken a time-out in not beginning military activity on September 1 because all questions have not been resolved with Washington yet. But don't think that the Kurds are afraid. They will die fearlessly for Ocalan, and fight for the freedom of Kurdistan. And let's not forget that the PKK is already beginning to talk about Syria and Iran, where approximately 8 million Kurds live. Maybe it is all very simple and that PKK goals are being globalized.

2. - AFP - "Turkey must help solve Cyprus problem to start EU negotiations":

NICOSIA / 11 September 2003

Greece backs Turkey's bid to start EU negotiations but it must help resolve Cyprus' decades-long division and radically improve Greco-Turkish relations, Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou said here Thursday.

"Greece is fighting for a European Turkey and within this process we can surpass historical differences," Papandreou told a press conference to wrap up his two-day visit to the divided island.

But he added that the EU's evaluation report on Turkey would be influenced by the situation on Cyprus and whether Greece and Turkey could resolve there differences.

"Obviously, Turkey will be evaluated in helping the Cyprus solution and changing in a radical way relations between Greece and Turkey," said Papandreou. He said if Ankara respected good neighbourly relations with Greece and Cyprus nobody could deny it entry into the EU.

"We hope we will see a win-win situation with a Cyprus settlement and Turkey getting a positive response to start negotiations with the EU." Papandreou arrived in Cyprus on Wednesday as Nicosia and Athens coordinate efforts to resolve the island's long-standing division, based on a UN blueprint, before it accedes to the EU next May.

Papandreou said the "new reality" brought on by pending EU membership was the catalyst for a Cyprus solution after 29 years of division, although not much is expected to happen before Turkish Cypriot elections in December.

Failure to reach a UN-brokered settlement by next May would see a divided Cyprus join an enlarged 25-member bloc, with only the internationally-recognised Greek Cypriot south enjoying the benefits of membership. That would leave Turkey, an EU candidate, in the awkward position of occupying a part of the European Union with some 30,000 troops.

"The security of Greek and Turkish Cypriots is gauranteed more by being part of the European family than by the military," Papandreou said. In a message to Turkish Cypriots, he made it clear Greece did not want them left out in the cold.

"We stand by our pledge to see Turkish Cypriots become members of the European family and we will fight to see Turkey become a member of the Europe Union," he said.

A united Turkish Cypriot opposition has vowed to oust hardline Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash as Cyprus settlement negotiator if they gain a majority of seats in December's poll.

Unlike the veteran leader, the opposition in northern Cyprus backs the UN plan for a reunited Cyprus to enter the EU. Cyprus reunification talks have been in limbo since the failure to agree on a UN settlement blueprint in March when Denktash took the brunt of the blame for the collapse.

Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when Turkish troops invaded the island after an Athens-engineered military coup aimed at uniting the independent republic with Greece.

3. - Turkish Daily News - "Supreme Court postpones DEHAP's election fraud hearing":

Lawyers for the small ethnic Kurdish DEHAP party, which is accused of forging electoral documents, had asked the court to put off the start of the hearing to allow it more time to prepare its case. "The request for extra time is considered appropriate, so I have postponed the trial until September 29," said a senior court official, Mustafa Aydin.

ANKARA / 12 September 2003

Turkey's Supreme Court on Thursday postponed until September 29 a hearing in a case involving alleged electoral fraud which has rattled financial markets and raised the prospect of political instability.

Lawyers for the small ethnic Kurdish the Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), which is accused of forging electoral documents, had asked the court to put off the start of the hearing to allow it more time to prepare its case.

"The request for extra time is considered appropriate, so I have postponed the trial until September 29," said a senior court official, Mustafa Aydin.

If the court rules against DEHAP, constitutional experts say the High Election Board could in theory cancel last November's general election which brought the reformist Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power.

The markets fear this could jeopardise economic and political reforms, imperil a $16 billion funding deal with the International Monetary Fund and disrupt Turkey's plans to open European Union entry talks in 2005.

But experts say the Election Board is more likely simply to cancel DEHAP's votes, a move which would effectively lower the 10 percent threshold required to win seats and allow another party which fell just short of that barrier to enter parliament.

Under such a move, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would lose some seats in parliament but retain its overall majority.

The worst scenerio

As the pessimists see it, DEHAP which is not even in parliament could soon pitch Turkey into turmoil, forcing the government's resignation and jeopardising crucial economic and political reforms.

Most constitutional experts believe this nightmare scenario is unlikely, but Turkish media and international financial markets were nervously awaiting the start of a Supreme Court hearing on Thursday into the DEHAP case.

Markets fear political instability generated by the case could hamper a steady recovery from a 2001 financial crisis and possibly disrupt plans to open EU entry talks in 2005.

DEHAP failed to cross the 10 percent barrier required to win seats. But another party which also fell short of the threshold, True Path Party (DYP), argues that without DEHAP's participation it could have entered parliament, altering the balance of power.

"If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling against DEHAP, many believe this will call into question the legitimacy of the National Assembly and therefore of the general election result," wrote commentator Ismet Berkan in the liberal daily Radikal.

Last November's election swept to power the Justice and AK Party, a newly formed grouping distrusted by Turkey's secular establishment because of its Islamist roots.

Worryingly for some, the AK Party now has a parliamentary majority big enough to amend Turkey's secular constitution.

Election Board to decide

Many expect the Supreme Court to rule against DEHAP but the administrative High Election Board (YSK) would have the final say on what action, if any, to take on the election results.

Constitutional experts say there is a legal possibility that the general election results could be declared invalid.

"The lapse of time since the elections is irrelevant to the case. The YSK would have to act," said Suheyl Batum, a professor of constitutional law at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul.

But he said the Election Board was more likely to annul the votes that went to DEHAP, effectively reducing the number of seats held by the AK Party and by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and allowing the DYP to enter parliament.

"This solution would preserve political stability. The government would retain its majority but would no longer have the overwhelming majority it now has to change, if it sees fit, the constitution," Batum told Reuters.

Hikmet Sami Turk, a former justice minister, echoed his comments, saying the Election Board had a responsibility under the constitution to prevent the kind of upheaval which would inevitably ensue if it called for new elections.

"Even if the Supreme Court upholds the decision that DEHAP forged documents and took part in the elections illegally, this would not affect the nationwide election result," he said.

For financial markets which value certainty above all else the case is proving a disincentive to act.

"It creates plenty of short-term uncertainty," said Mehmet Simsek, emerging markets strategist at Merrill Lynch in London.

"We are quite bullish on the Turkish macro outlook...but the court case suggests political risk may re-enter the equation and become a negative influence...in the short-term," he said.

4. - AFP - "Iraqi leader shies away from inviting Turkish troops":

ANKARA / 11 September 2003 / by Hande Culpan

The head of Iraq's interim administration Ahmed Chalabi Thursday shied away from inviting Turkish troops to Iraq -- a gesture that would have helped bolster Ankara's bid to join the US-led multinational peace-keeping force there.

"It is not our job to call troops to Iraq. This is a job for the United Nations," Chalabi, the current chairman of the Governing Council, told reporters after a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul.

He said, however, they "will continue to study" the prospect of a Turkish deployment, which has faced with harsh opposition in Baghdad. Keen to win a say in the shaping of post-war Iraq and mend fences with its US ally after its failure to back the war, Ankara has expressed willingness to contribute up to 10,000 peacekeepers to help to restore order in its neighbour's territory.

But the plan, which has the backing of the United States, has triggered harsh objections in Baghdad, particularly from Iraqi Kurds who have tense relations with Ankara. The Turkish government also faces opposition to the idea at home -- both from public opinion and from parliament, which has to approve any decision to dispatch soldiers.

In an apparent bid not to antagonize his hosts, Chalabi said: "We in Iraq want to have the best possible cooperation (with Turkey) in the economic and political and security fields." Ankara is seeking to convince Iraqi leaders that its soldiers would undertake not just military missions but also humanitarian projects to ease the plight of the Iraqi people.

Turkey is reportedly planning to repair schools, hospitals and mosques, build field kitchens to feed poor people and repair electricity and water infrastructure in the region where its soldiers would serve. "We say that we will not go to Iraq as a gendarmerie force to make up for the shortcomings of the military forces of the United States and other countries. We will go there if there is a mission for us in the whole reconstruction of Iraq," Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin said.

Iraq's new foreign minister and senior Kurdish leader Hoshyar Zebari angered Ankara when he said last week that any military role for Turkey or other neighboring countries would further destabilize Iraq.

Zebari said they were concerned that if deployed, Turkish troops would have to cross through Kurdish northern Iraq and set up bases along the way. His remarks reflected Kurdish fears that Turkey has an eye on their oil-rich homeland in the north.

Ankara, on the other hand, suspects the Kurds of plotting to break away from Baghdad, a prospect that could rekindle separatist Kurdish violence in Turkey. Underscoring divisions among Iraqi leaders, Chalabi, for his part, had earlier welcomed Turkish military help, though the Turkish media quoted him Thursday as saying he was against the deployment of more foreign troops in his country.

Turkey and the United States have already agreed that the Turkish army will be given a separate sector under its own command if Ankara decides to contribute peacekeepers. But Ankara is worried that anti-Turkish rhetoric in Baghdad will make it more difficult for the government to win over opponents at home.

To allay the misgivings of its sole Muslim NATO ally, Washington faces the uphill task of convincing the Iraqi leadership that Turkey could help in stabilizing their country. It is also under pressure from Ankara to purge northern Iraq of an estimated 5,000 Turkish Kurd rebels hiding in mountains in the region. A US delegation arrived in Ankara Thursday evening for talks on how to deal with the rebels.

5. - MSNBC/NTV - "Most Turks oppose sending army to Iraq":

Despite government claims that the economy is recovering, 58 percent of those polled don’t believe the economy has turned the corner.

11 September 2003

A survey commissioned by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has shown that the majority of Turks are against any deployment of Turkish troops in Iraq as part of an international stability force.

According to the poll, 65 percent of Turks oppose the sending of a Turkish military contingent to Iraq. Tellingly, 49 percent of AKP voters have yet to be convinced by the government of the necessity of the possible deployment.

In response to a question of whether respondents thought that the US could restore stability in Iraq and conduct elections in that country for a democratic government, 69 percent of AKP voters polled answered in the negative.

Some 54 percent of those polled also said they opposed the government proposal to sell off state owned land that was no longer deemed to be forests.

6. - Reuters - "U.S., Turkey plan to sign $8.5 bln loan this month":

WASHINGTON / 11 September 2003 / by Adam Entous

The Bush administration plans to sign an $8.5 billion loan agreement with Turkey later this month during meetings in Dubai, people familiar with the plan said on Thursday.

The agreement is seen as a step toward rebuilding good relations after Turkey refused in March to allow U.S. troops to invade neighboring Iraq from its soil.

Administration officials told lawmakers the loans would be disbursed in four equal tranches.

The first disbursement of roughly $2.1 billion would take place soon after a review of Turkey's economic program by the International Monetary Fund, most likely in mid- to late-October.

The loan agreement stipulates that Turkey stay on track with the IMF program. The last two IMF reviews for Turkey were delayed because the country fell behind on reforms.

Administration officials told lawmakers they planned to hold the signing ceremony in Dubai, where Treasury Secretary John Snow will meet with other finance ministers between Sept. 20 and Sept. 23.

President George W. Bush offered the money to Turkey in March despite its decision on U.S. troops, but talks bogged down for months.

Washington now wants Ankara to contribute troops to a peacekeeping force in postwar Iraq, and Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said on Tuesday the government would decide this month whether to oblige.

U.S. officials said they expected Turkey's National Security Council, a powerful advisory body of military and civilian leaders, to meet around Sept. 22, to discuss the troop deployment. "Not that there's any connection" between the loans and the troops, one source said.

The Bush administration said it decided to go forward with the loans to support Turkey's economic reforms and to cushion the economic shock from the war in neighboring Iraq.

"Another economic crisis in Turkey would damage U.S. interests in the region, especially as efforts to stabilize Iraq are under way. U.S. assistance, conditioned on Turkey's continued adherence to its IMF-backed economic reform program, will help maintain market confidence in Turkey and aid the country's economic recovery," the State Department said in a recent letter to key congressional committees.

The funds will be used to service Turkey's external and domestic debts, "giving priority, where possible, to debt owed to the United States and to international financial institutions," the letter said.

"Easing its debt servicing requirements is critical to Turkey's return to stable economic growth, as well as demonstrating U.S. support to a valued ally," the letter said.